Thursday, August 26, 2010

The 2010 Emmy Awards: My Predictions - PART I

With this year's Emmy Awards fast approaching (Sunday, August 29), I thought it would be a good idea to share my predictions for the winners. What I will do is breakdown each major category and give my final assessment. So, here it goes:

PART I The Supporting Acting Awards

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age, TNT
  • FOR HIM: Braugher is a well-respected actor amongst the Hollywood crowd and was a critical highlight of TNT's new serio-dramedy about three friends struggling through middle age. He also did some great work on FOX's House M.D. as Dr. House's psychiatrist.
  • AGAINST HIM: The show, while it has the critics behind it, is not uber-popular with audiences. Also, Braugher's role on the series can be viewed as a Leading role just as much as a Supporting Ensemble member.
Michael Emerson, LOST, ABC
  • FOR HIM: LOST had one of its best seasons in its final one and Emerson's manipulative and disturbed Ben has been a crucial part of the accolades the show has received in its last years, winning this same award last year.
  • AGAINST HIM: One of his competitors comes from the same show, Terry O'Quinn. The two would most likely cancel each other out.
Terry O'Quinn, LOST, ABC
  • FOR HIM: O'Quinn's Locke was one of the most intriguing characters of the season, drifting between devil and hero. O'Quinn, like Braugher, is also a well-respected character actor that Emmy voters may just want to reward for years of service.
  • AGAINST HIM: Those years of service were rewarded back in 2007 when O'Quinn won this award. And since both he and co-star (and co-nominee) Emerson are previous winners, the canceling each other out is much more likely.
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad, AMC
  • FOR HIM: As a former student helping his teacher make and sell meth, Paul has gotten some great critical notices for his role. He also got some of the best reviews of the show this season for his work (better reviews than Lead Actor Bryan Cranston, who is poised to take home a third Emmy Award).
  • AGAINST HIM: He is up against some tough veterans in this category and while he got some fantastic critical notices for his work this season, so did they. Emmy voters may wish to go for experience instead.
Martin Short, Damages, F/X
  • FOR HIM: Short, one of the best comedic actors in the business, defied audience expectations in his role as the Machiavellian con-artist-turned-powerful-attorney. Emmy voters might recognize that it is comedians who make the best actors by giving him the award.
  • AGAINST HIM: Damages is not the most watched show to have Emmy respect. The show has floundered on F/X's schedule forcing the producers to make a crucial move to DirectTV for its fourth season. To gain more fans, Emmy voters might look at the show as a whole as opposed to just the actor.
John Slattery, Mad Men, AMC
  • FOR HIM: Slattery's performance as founding partner Roger Sterling Jr. has garnered him praise for the past three seasons. His character has gone through divorce, two heart attacks and still manages to smoke, drink and (possibly) womanize.
  • AGAINST HIM: Mad Men, while knocking them dead as the Drama Series champ, has failed to win over in the acting categories (Slattery's two previous unsuccessful nominations serve as proof). His nomination may be more for the show than for his well-respected performance.
Aaron Paul will most likely vanquish the threat from both the LOST actors considering he received some of the best critical notices of the year.

Martin Short could surprise people by winning for his vicious role. A win for Short, however, would be bittersweet as his wife of over 20 years, Nancy Dolman, passed away on Sunday night (August 22nd). For the nay-sayers out there, this piece of tragic news would NOT have affected voting as the deadline was over a week ago.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife, CBS
  • FOR HER: Baranski is beloved by the Awards circuit. Her nomination was almost a foregone conclusion for a lot of people. Basically, she gets nominated just for standing there (as seen by her other nomination for Guest Actress in a Comedy Series for her role on The Big Bang Theory).
  • AGAINST HER: While she is beloved, her role as law partner Diane Lockhart on the show is not the standout (at least as far as supporting cast goes). Her co-star and co-nominee Archie Panjabi's investigator has wowed more critics and fans of the show.
Rose Byrne, Damages, F/X
  • FOR HER: Byrne's protagonist role on the F/X drama has been praised for all three seasons (she has two previous unsuccessful nominations). She may be due to get recognition.
  • AGAINST HER: Her role is more of a Leading role, though extremely overshadowed by her co-star Glenn Close (hence, her entry into the Supporting category).
Sharon Gless, Burn Notice, AMC
  • FOR HER: Gless is a favorite of Emmy voters and her role as Maddie Weston has been a critical highlight of the spy drama. Her nomination was a pleasant surprise for many Hollywood insiders.
  • AGAINST HER: Her nomination was a complete surprise. Her show has not been on Emmy's radar for the past three years. The nomination could be more for the actress than for the show.
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men, AMC
  • FOR HER: Hendricks has been the "It Girl" of TV for this past year (a ploy that worked in the past for Katherine Heigl and Julianna Margulies). Her performance in the episode "Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency" (which she cleverly submitted) was, to many critics, one of the best performances of the year.
  • AGAINST HER: One of her competitors is her co-star Elisabeth Moss, who also got some good reviews last year. Also, like John Slattery's problem, Mad Men has never gotten Emmy love in the acting categories.
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men, AMC
  • FOR HER: Moss' role as innocent copywriter Peggy Olson has garnered praise from critics and audiences (she was nominated last year for Lead Actress in a Drama Series).
  • AGAINST HER: Her co-star Christina Hendricks has had a showier season and her being in the Supporting category instead of the Lead could be seen as a downgrade. All that plus the problem that works against John Slattery and Christina Hendricks.
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife, CBS
  • FOR HER: Panjabi's straight-forward and mysterious investigator Kalinda Sharma has received several positive notices from critics. Her highlighted performance may be enough to charm Emmy voters.
  • AGAINST HER: While she is a stand-out in the supporting cast of the series (more than Christine Baranski), the show truly is on the shoulders of the titular star, Julianna Margulies.
It will come down between Christina Hendricks and Archie Panjabi. Both have had great reviews and have gained loyal fans. I would have to give the edge to Hendricks merely because of her "It Girl" status.

Hendricks and Panjabi could be cancelled out by their own co-stars and the benefactor of that could very well be Sharon Gless. Many Hollywood insiders would welcome the chance to applaud Gless walking up to the stage to accept her third career Emmy Award.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Ty Burrell, Modern Family, ABC
  • FOR HIM: As the quirky father and husband, Burrell's performance has been a comic highlight of the well-praised ensemble. He also has had character performances in movies and TV shows over the years that have garnered him respect from his peers
  • AGAINST HIM: Being in a category with his fellow co-stars (save Ed O'Neill), he could just go home empty-handed and watch his co-star win (or someone else entirely).
Chris Colfer, Glee, FOX
  • FOR HIM: Colfer's nomination for playing the boy soprano/diva struggling with his sexual orientation was a welcome surprise to many fans and Hollywood insiders. He, apart from Jane Lynch's Sue Sylvester, is one of the most popular characters on the show.
  • AGAINST HIM: His youth and inexperience basically. He is in a category with more seasoned veterans. He might have to try again next year but this nomination certainly gives him a leg up.
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men, CBS
  • FOR HIM: Cryer is the reigning winner in this category and his work this season just got better as far as critics were concerned.
  • AGAINST HIM: His co-star Charlie Sheen's high-profile antics earlier this year has marked the show in a bad way. Last year's win for Cryer may have been the last time we would see this show in the Winners' Circle.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family, ABC
  • FOR HIM: Ferguson's neurotic gay lawyer has been critically praised and he has a loyal fanbase from his days on Broadway.
  • AGAINST HIM: His co-stars Ty Burrell and Eric Stonestreet (who plays his partner) have showier roles and so he may be watching one of them win on Emmy night.
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother, CBS
  • FOR HIM: He was a favorite last year, but Jon Cryer won. His Barney Stinson character has had some really big moments including a musical number and bedding 100 women in 1 week (where he was interviewed by Jim Nance).
  • AGAINST HIM: With three nominations this year (for this, a guest spot on Glee and hosting last year's Tony Awards), Emmy voters are less likely to let him win all three. He won in the latter two categories at last week's Creative Arts Emmys.
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family, ABC
  • FOR HIM: As the stay-at-home gay dad, Eric Stonestreet's Cameron has been a reason critics have lauded the show. He's even had some great moments like singing "Ave Maria" at a wedding.
  • AGAINST HIM: Being up against his co-stars could work against him and he could watch Burrell or Ferguson win.

It will come down between the Modern Family guys with Ty Burrell or Eric Stonestreet emerging victorious. I'm gonna give the edge to Burrell because of his past performances.

Chris Colfer has a loud and loyal fanbase (almost to the point of obsession). The vote could go his way based just on pure nerve.

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Julie Bowen, Modern Family, ABC
  • FOR HER: Bowen's neurotic-yet-stable housewife has been a highlight of the Modern Family ensemble. Voters may want to recognize her contribution.
  • AGAINST HER: Being in an ensemble has its drawbacks. Her competitor and co-star Sofia Vergara is just as worthy of the award, so the two actresses will most likely cancel each other out. That and she is up against Jane Lynch.
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock, NBC
  • FOR HER: Krakowski's vain actress Jenna Meloni has been a highlight of the show since the beginning and this past season, Tina Fey and the writers gave her some of her best stuff (like reuniting with her mother, played by Jan Hooks, and her dating a Jenna Meloni drag queen, played by Will Forte).
  • AGAINST HER: This nomination is more for the show than for the actress (she has unsuccessfully been nominated twice before). 30 Rock has dwindled in fans and the nomination may just be enough. That and she is up against Jane Lynch.
Jane Lynch, Glee, FOX
  • FOR HER: Lynch as the vicious and heartless cheerleading coach Sue Sylvester has been the phenom of the phenom. She is beloved by Hollywood and her peers. Her scheming alter-ego would also try to find some way of fixing the race so Lynch could win.
  • AGAINST HER: There's not much against her except possibly a major anti-Glee movement that could stem from the reaction to the loyal (and sometimes obsessive) fanbase.
Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men, CBS
  • FOR HER: While she didn't have much to do this year (she was in half of the show's 20 episodes), what she did do was worthy of notice.
  • AGAINST HER: With Sheen's antics earlier this year, the show has suffered financially and in standing. So, like Cryer, the nomination will have to suffice. That and she is up against Jane Lynch
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family, ABC
  • FOR HER: Vergara's Colombian accent and luscious curves are just icing on the comic cake. She has proven herself quite hilarious and witty in the Family's many awkward situations.
  • AGAINST HER: Like her co-star Julie Bowen above, they are both equally good and voters will more likely choose against them than for them. That and she is up against Jane Lynch.
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live, NBC
  • FOR HER: Like Amy Poehler, Tina Fey, Molly Shannon, Jan Hooks and Gilda Radner before her, Wiig's quirky characters have become the highlight of SNL in recent years.
  • AGAINST HER: SNL has only recently been considered contenders for Acting awards (both Amy Poehler and Kristen Wiig were nominated last year). It may take a few more years before cast members find themselves winners in major categories like this one. That and she's up against Jane Lynch.
I'd have to be crazy to not predict that Jane Lynch would walk away with the award come Sunday night. Unless there is some massive anti-Glee movement amongst Emmy voters (meaning one of the Modern Family ladies would benefit), Lynch WILL win this award. Sue Sylvester wouldn't have it any other way.

Next Post: PART II - The Leading Acting Awards

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