IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2013 Oscar Predictions

It's still Awards Month!  And yesterday, the final ballots were due for the 85th Academy Awards (whether they want to call them that or not!).  So now it is time for me to give my final Predictions in the major categories.  And just like previous years, I like to hedge my bets, so to speak.  I love to tell my readers who I think "Will Win," but then follow with a "Dark Horse" or "Spoiler" (this year being referred to as "But...").  One comment you will see often throughout this article is that this has been one crazy Oscar season (for many different reasons!).  And with a crazy season, nothing is easy and anything can happen.  So let's dive right in with

MY 2013 ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE
The Nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Category Overview: Just like last year, we have 9 nominated films in the top category.  However unlike last year where The Artist was the early front-runner and pretty much kept that status throughout the precursors, several of this year's nominees have enjoyed that honor in this crazy Awards season.  And now that all the precursor Awards have had their say and it seems like one film has emerged towards the winner's circle, I remind you that in a crazy season like this: anything can happen!
Will Win: Now that it has won ALL the Guild Awards (including the Actors and Writers!), Argo has placed itself into becoming the first film since Driving Miss Daisy (back in 1990) to win Best Picture without even being nominated for Best Director.  It is a favorite of the critics and audiences have rallied around Ben Affleck since his snub from the Director's branch of the Academy.
But...: It's not all over for Spielberg and Company!  Having the most nominations could still have weighed with Academy voters.  Some could feel that with all the Guild wins, Ben Affleck has been sufficiently compensated for the snub and it's now time to be more "traditional."  And as brilliant as Steven Spielberg's gem is, Lincoln does fall into the "traditional" genre that is better known as "Oscar Bait."

BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees: Michael Haneke, Amour; Ang Lee, Life of Pi; David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook; Steven Spielberg, Lincoln; Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Category Overview: With several high profile snubs in this category (Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, Tom Hooper, Quentin Tarantino and Paul Thomas Anderson), one would think that this would be an easy win for one of Hollywood's biggest power-players.  But as I said earlier, nothing in this Oscar season is easy.
Will Win: Despite a small band of detractors, Steven Spielberg is one of Hollywood's greatest directors and it surprises people that he only has TWO Academy Awards for Best Director (for Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan).  This is the chance for Hollywood to give him his due and honor him with a well-deserved third Oscar for Lincoln (especially now with the likes of Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow out of the race!).
But...: That small band of detractors are rallying behind Ang Lee and his stunning visual achievements in Life of Pi.  And it is possible that their arguments have swayed some of the Academy voters.  While I still say Spielberg has it in the bag, I wouldn't be too surprised should Ang Lee's name be read on Sunday.

BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty; Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook; Emmanuelle Riva, Amour; Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Category Overview: Wallis is the youngest Best Actress nominee ever and Riva is the oldest (and each are receiving their first nod!).  The other three (Lawrence, Chastain and Watts) are receiving their second Oscar nomination.
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence was an early front-runner in the category the minute Silver Linings Playbook premiered at the Toronto Film Festival.  With a Golden Globe and a Screen Actors' Guild Award under her belt, the young actress is on her way to Oscar glory.
But...: Lawrence is not the only one here with a Golden Globe Award.  Jessica Chastain, who gave a stunningly brilliant performance in Zero Dark Thirty, won both the Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice Award for her efforts as a determined CIA Analyst.  Though the "torture issue" surrounding the film might have made voters squeamish to give ZDT a high-profile prize.
However...: Both Chastain and Lawrence have lost a few critics' prizes (the National Board of Review and the L.A. Film Critics) and last week's British Film Award (BAFTA) to Amour's Emmanuelle Riva.  The French character actress has been a star in France for several decades and many have pointed out that this is her chance to be honored by Hollywood for her many years in French Cinema (and we know how the Academy loves to give "Career Oscars!").

BEST ACTOR
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook; Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln; Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables; Joaquin Phoenix, The Master; Denzel Washington, Flight
Category Overview: Phoenix was an early front-runner, but spoiled his chances when he stated his true feelings about the whole campaigning process.  Jackman and Cooper both wowed audiences with their performances and Washington gave his best in a complex role (as he always does!).  But then there's Daniel Day-Lewis.
Will Win: From the moment critics and audiences saw screenings of Lincoln, the writing was on the wall that Day-Lewis would become the first performer to win a third Best Leading Actor trophy.  His performance is so nuanced and brilliant that no one can really compare to him (which is kind of unfair!).  The best description of Day-Lewis came from Entertainment Weekly's Owen Gleiberman who compared his style to a combination of the method attitudes of Marlon Brando and the classical training of Sir Laurence Olivier.  That's a combination that deserves every Award ever made!
But...:  There really isn't one in this category!  It's one of two major categories this year where there is a surefire front-runner from the word "Go."  The only thing that could stop Day-Lewis is a complete and utter shut-out of Spielberg's film.  But then who would the beneficiary of such a shut-out be?  The most likely would be either Jackman or Washington, and both of them have not gained enough traction in any of the precursors to be a real threat (despite Jackman's Golden Globe win!).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Amy Adams, The Master; Sally Field, Lincoln; Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables; Helen Hunt, The Sessions; Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Category Overview: All of the actresses in this category have been nominated before (though three of them are new to the Supporting Actress category!).
Will Win: Is there any doubt that Anne Hathaway will win this one?  From the second her voice was heard in the trailer singing the iconic "I Dreamed a Dream" song, pundits placed her at the top of their lists for this category.  Then when the film premiered, critics (even the ones that didn't like the film!) fell in love with her tragedienne performance especially when they discovered she sang the song live in one take!  On top of all that, she has been the most gracious winner at the precursors.  She has given heartfelt speeches and sincere praise to her fellow nominees (especially Sally Field!).  She's become the kind of Oscar contender Academy voters just adore.
But...: Like Best Actor above, if there is a "Spoiler" here, it would be minute.  Sally Field gives a great performance as Mary Todd Lincoln in Steven Spielberg's film.  The fact that she had to fight to keep the role once Liam Neeson backed out of the project is the kind of story Academy voters love.  However, it's a story that is not unfamiliar in Field's career.  Back in 1979, she had to fight to get the title role in Martin Ritt's Norma Rae.  Her endeavors were rewarded with her first of two Academy Awards (the second came for 1984's Places In the Heart, another role for which she "fought").  She's been rewarded enough for fighting for her roles.  It's Anne Hathaway's turn!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Category Overview: This category is going to work a little differently!  This is the toughest category to predict.  Maybe the toughest ever!  ALL of the five actors nominated are previous Oscar champs (a feat which has never happened before!).  And none of the precursors have been any help to any of the pundits.  It seems like they predict one and then someone else wins.  So I will take you through each nominee and give you the reason why I can see ANY ONE of them taking the prize on Sunday.

• Alan Arkin, Argo - For many, Arkin was the scene-stealing best part of Ben Affleck's political thriller.  As the Hollywood producer who joins Affleck's CIA Agent in endeavoring to rescue some American Embassy workers from Iran, Arkin has the best dialogue and the best scenes.  He hasn't won any of the precursors, but he's been nominated for every single one.  And with Argo surging forward in the top category, it is not unlikely that some of that love could fall Arkin's way.
• Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook - Out of all the nominees in this category, his win is the oldest (having won his second Oscar in 1981 for Raging Bull!).  Like Spielberg, it surprises people that De Niro (being the legend he is!) only has two Oscars.  And with his role as Bradley Cooper's tough-talking yet extremely sensitive and caring father, many critics felt that this was De Niro's return to form after years in light/comedic roles (Analyze This/That, Meet the Parents/Fockers, Stardust, etc.).  Actors love this movie (with nods in each of the Acting categories!) and De Niro could benefit from some of that love.
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master - Hoffman made himself an early front-runner with his role as a 1950s cult leader in Paul Thomas Anderson's poignant film.  He even won the Critics' Choice Award back in early January.  However with the film falling off the radar and only getting nods in three categories (the other two being Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress!), his chances have dimmed dramatically.  But he is the only contender who won a major Critics' prize.  That may carry weight with some of the Academy voters.
• Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln - He won the Screen Actors' Guild Award for his stirring portrayal of abolitionist Senator Thaddeus Stevens.  Some have even said it was hard to tell where Stevens ended and Lee Jones began (which is both a positive and a negative!).  He is the category front-runner with most of the pundits, but he has fierce competitors.
• Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained - A lot of people felt he should be in the Lead category as he is the contender who has the most screen time in his respective film.  But as he is not the title character, Waltz (my personal favorite!) has been relegated to the Supporting field and has raked in a couple prizes to boot!  Waltz beat his co-star (Leonardo DiCaprio) at the Golden Globes and just last week was honored with the BAFTA in this category.  For someone who at first was not on the radar at the beginning of Oscar season, he has now moved himself in to major contender status.

Will Win: Any one of them could be the winner, but I guess I'll go with the majority (the 27% majority!) and say that Tommy Lee Jones will be the eventual winner.  But I go on record saying that any one of these five names could be read from that envelope by The Help's Octavia Spencer on Sunday night.

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2013 Oscar Nominations - Reaction!

Yesterday, the Academy Award Nominations for the films of 2012 were announced...and let me just say: Whoa!!!  I mean, the prognosticators were thrown for a major loop.  And so were the Oscar record books!  So now, it is time for me to run through the major categories and give you all my (somewhat!) initial reactions to the names that appeared (and didn't appear!) on yesterday's list of nominees.

• Again with the 9 nominees for Best Picture!  I was fairly sure that six of the nine were guaranteed (Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Misérables and Silver Linings Playbook) and throwing one more in the mix was not a shock (Django Unchained).  I'm not even surprised by the momentum "outsider" films gained during this awards season (Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild).  But with this new "between 5 and 10 films nominated" rule the Academy has, if just 9 films get nominated again next year, it will truly feel forced!
• I am quite surprised that The Master's Joaquin Phoenix didn't ace himself out of a nomination with his very public and very graphic chiding of the process actors are "forced" to go through in order to obtain an Oscar nod (no matter how right he was!).  Unfortunately his inclusion means the exclusion of The Sessions' John Hawkes who, according to many critics, gave one of the best performances of the year (and he had scored both Golden Globe and Screen Actors' Guild nominations!).
• With 85 year-old Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) and 9 year-old Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), the average age of the Best Actress nominees falls somewhere around 40 - an age that, in Hollywood, is NOT considered "Lead Actress material!"  How Hollywood has changed!!!  Maybe not that much since either 35 year-old Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) or 22 year-old Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) will most likely be the eventual winner!
• For the first time (at least that I can currently recall!), ALL of the nominees for Best Supporting Actor are previous Oscar winners: Alan Arkin, Robert De Niro, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz.  As for a front-runner, it is still a toss-up (although both Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Tommy Lee Jones are the first names mentioned among the critics!).
• With Jacki Weaver garnering her second Oscar nod for Best Supporting Actress, she helps put David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook into the elite club of films that had acting nominations in all four categories (this club includes films like Warren Beatty's Reds, Mike Nichols' Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? and Elia Kazan's A Streetcar Named Desire).  Despite all that, Les Misérables' Anne Hathaway is still going to win!
• Jeffrey Katzenberg must be somewhere licking his wounds.  After the poor box-office performance and mixed reviews of the holiday-themed movie Rise of the Guardians, it was pushed out of the Animated Film category by not one...not two...but THREE Disney films - Brave, Frankenweenie and Wreck-It Ralph.  Good thing Dreamworks has Lincoln carrying the studio banner at this year's ceremony!
• In the writing categories, it is small consolation that Wes Anderson's critically lauded comedy Moonrise Kingdom got some recognition.  But it's still disturbing that original and creative genre fare like Looper (science-fiction) and Brave (animated fantasy) get ignored.  Also, is there some scientology-themed conspiracy in Hollywood against Paul Thomas Anderson?  Though The Master has lost some awards momentum, many thought he would at least get his fourth writing nomination.  I would also like to point out that I was one of the few people I know that correctly predicted each of the nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay (Lincoln, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, Argo and Beasts of the Southern Wild).  Just want to get that fact in there, folks!
• And lastly, what the hell is going on in the Academy's Directors branch!?!?!  Are they afraid of ticking off the CIA so they choose NOT to nominate Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)?  Did the mixed reception that Les Misérables and Django Unchained each got from the critics dismay them from including Tom Hooper or Quentin Tarantino, respectively?  Entertainment Weekly's own Owen Gleiberman pointed out that it is odd that FOUR major Hollywood players are excluded from an albeit very crowded category.  Did the branch just clear the way for Steven Spielberg to obtain his third Best Director Oscar?  Maybe!!!

With all this and more going on in Hollywood, it will be an interesting month as the prognosticators try to figure out what the Academy is thinking and what film will be in the Winners' Circle at the end of February.  So let's relax now and listen to Adele has she sings her way to yet another award!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: Oscar Season Begins!

Clockwise: Sally Field and Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln; Alan Arkin and Ben Affleck in Argo; Stephen Dillane and Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty; Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables

Well readers, it's been a month since my last post and it was a very well-deserved vacation!  And now that we are heading into Winter, there is one thing that is on everyone's mind in Hollywood: The Oscars and who will be nominated this time around.  The nominations will not be announced until the morning of January 13th and it is during the month of December that those ballots will be filled out by Academy voters as to which of this year's films deserve the top prize.  Because the Oscars have moved their schedule up an entire month, all the other awards on the circuit have tried to accommodate that with the Golden Globes (the most high-profile Oscar precursor) announcing their nominees next Thursday.  So which films are the front-runners in the race to be nominated for the biggest award?  Well there are certainly a few.  And with the Academy's new rule that allows for anywhere from 5 to 10 films to be nominated for Best Picture, the race has become that much harder to predict.

However, amid all the predictions are 3 films that are definitely going to be in prominent contention come Oscar night.  When Argo was released in September, Ben Affleck received the best reviews of his career (as a director, actor and co-screenwriter).  His thrilling and suspenseful adaptation about a secret CIA mission to retrieve American Embassy workers during the 1979 Iran Hostage Crisis was far and wide considered a surefire bet for Best Picture.  In addition to Argo, critics then lauded the most recent Steven Spielberg film, Lincoln.  In this stunning political biopic, two-time Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis has received raves for his role as the 16th President of the United States and is in definite contention for a third Best Actor statue.   But the buzziest film of 2012's Oscar season has yet to be released for audiences.  Academy Award winner Tom Hooper's adaptation of the iconic stage musical Les Misérables has been receiving Oscar buzz ever since the first trailer appeared in theaters over the summer (especially for Best Supporting Actress contender Anne Hathaway) and will not be released until Christmas Day.  So at this time, I have seen both Argo and Lincoln and can assure you that both deserve the attention they are getting.  I will soon be seeing Les Misérables (thanks to a perk, I'll get to see it a week before Christmas Day!), so I will be able to let you know if the buzz is correct in placing it alongside the other two.

But in the last few days, another film has been getting attention that most likely would have belonged to the three films mentioned above.  Kathryn Bigelow, who two years ago made history when she became the first woman to win the Best Director Oscar for The Hurt Locker, has made yet another topical film that has captured awards attention.  And that film is Zero Dark Thirty, Bigelow's adaptation of the operation that took down Osama Bin Laden.  Over the weekend, the New York Film Critics named Bigelow's movie the Best Picture of the year with the National Board of Review following suit just a few days later.  The National Board of Review also named Bigelow Best Director and star Jessica Chastain as the year's Best Actress.  However, my father pointed out that these wins may have more to do with the movie's subject matter than with the merits of the movie itself (even if it is a great film!).  But with these new developments, I would not be surprised to see Zero Dark Thirty (a film I have yet to see and now have more interest in seeing!) among the top contenders come Oscar time.

There are two other films that are getting mentioned (at least by the critics) when it comes to the contenders for Best Picture.  One is David O. Russell's dark relationship comedy Silver Linings Playbook which stars Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence as two people with deep personal problems who connect with each other despite several differences.  The film is being hailed across the board and Lawrence is considered the top front-runner for Best Actress.  And Bradley Cooper shouldn't be out of the mix either having won the National Board of Review's Best Actor award (over Daniel Day-Lewis!).  The other film being mentioned is Ang Lee's sweeping Life of Pi, which garnered much praise after being viewed at the New York Film Festival.  Several critics pegged it as a surefire Best Picture contender.  And with Ang Lee's previous Oscar pedigree (winning Best Director in 2006 for Brokeback Mountain and Best Foreign Language Film in 2001 for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), it has a pretty good shot with the critics behind it.

Now I could leave these predictions at six films, but what kind of Oscar predictor would that make me?  There are several other films that are being mentioned on message boards (and by a few critics).  There's Paul Thomas Anderson's faux-Scientology drama The Master (which won at the Cannes Film Festival) and Benh Zeitlin's critically-lauded Beasts of the Southern Wild (which won at Sundance).  The Denzel Washington-led Flight and Quentin Tarantino's new film Django Unchained (which is an homage to "Spaghetti Westerns") are also audience faves (even though Django Unchained is yet-to-be-released!) Let's not forget the Foreign Film Amour, which won Europe's top Film prize and is on several critics' top 10 lists.  And among all these typical awards-fare, three franchise films (or genre pics!) are being thrown into the conversation.  Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight Rises, Peter Jackson's The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and Sam Mendes' Bond film Skyfall are all on some lists when talking about Best Picture.  All this said, it shall be a very interesting mix of movies being lauded at the Academy Awards this time around.

10 FAVORITES (55): Strangest Award-Winning Characters

Let's face it, some characters are just strange!  When I think of the many performances that have won Oscars, Emmys and Tonys over the years, I see that there is a wide array of characters from the very rich (Colin Firth in The King's Speech or Gwynneth Paltrow in Shakespeare In Love) to the working class (the casts of All In the Family or Cheers) to the struggling to survive (Nikki James in The Book of Mormon or Frances Ruffelle in Les Miserables).  But there have been several characters that have won these awards that would fall under the category of "strange."  Now when I say "strange," I am not referring to the circumstances surrounding the actor or actress' win (like when Marisa Tomei won for My Cousin Vinny!).  I am also not referring to characters who have a disability or are diagnosed as mentally ill/psychotic (sorry Hannibal Lecter!).  I am referring to characters whose eccentricities are a part of who they are and make the character that much more memorable.  So this week's 10 FAVORITES is devoted to...

THE 10 STRANGEST AWARD-WINNING CHARACTERS

CHARACTER #10

Guido Orefice, Life Is Beautiful

Roberto Benigni - Oscar for Best Actor, 1999

This is partly because the actor who won the award came off to the public as very very very strange.  He wrote and directed himself to an Oscar as a poor Italian man who woos a wealthy woman (whom he calls "Principesa") and goes on to have a son with her.  His clowning antics come in handy when he tries to shield his beloved son from the dangers and horrors of a Nazi Concentration Camp.

CHARACTER #9
Mary Poppins, Mary Poppins
Julie Andrews - Oscar for Best Actress, 1965
Who says a strange character can't be one of the most beloved from my childhood?  Yes, we delight in her "practically perfect" eccentricity.  But on face value, two kids brought up in strict Edwardian ways see a woman literally fly to their doorway and slide up the banister to greet them...I think eccentric is the "nice" way to put it.

CHARACTER #8
John (or Jean), Eugene Ionesco's Rhinoceros
Zero Mostel - Tony for Best Actor in a Play, 1961
Comic actor Zero Mostel played a man turning into a Rhinoceros in one of Ionesco's most unusual plays ('Nuff Said!).  He repeated that Tony-winning performance 13 years later in a film alongside his Producers co-star Gene Wilder.

CHARACTER #7

Truman Capote, Tru and Capote

Robert Morse - Tony for Best Actor in a Play, 1990 and Emmy for Best Actor in a TV Movie, 1993

and

Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Oscar for Best Actor, 2006

As a writer myself, I have to admit that we all are a little bit eccentric.  But genius author Truman Capote took eccentricity to a whole new level.  Just his very personality put some people ill-at-ease.  Robert Morse won both a Tony and an Emmy for Jay Presson Allen's play about the legendary writer (Tru) and almost 15 years later Phillip Seymour Hoffman wowed critics with his performance in Capote (the dark film about Capote's research for his infamous novel In Cold Blood).

CHARACTER #6
Dr. Dick Solomon, 3rd Rock From the Sun
John Lithgow - Emmy for Best Actor in a Comedy Series, 1996, 1997 & 1999
One of the best dramatic character actors (Terms of Endearment, Footloose) channeled his friend John Cleese when he took the part of an Alien assuming human form and studying our life habits.  John Lithgow won 3 Emmys for his stellar work as quite frankly one of the strangest college professors anyone has ever met (and judging by the average college professor, that is saying something!).

CHARACTER #5
Howard Beale, Network
Peter Finch - Oscar for Best Actor, 1977
We all know the catchphrase: He's "mad as hell, and he's not going to take it anymore!"  With that phrase Peter Finch's dynamic and all-over-the-map performance of a news anchor who goes from beleagured to god-like won almost every award of the season.  Finch, unfortunately, passed away before he could obtain that elusive Oscar.

CHARACTER #4
Cosmo Kramer, Seinfeld
Michael Richards - Emmy for Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series, 1993, 1994 & 1997
When it comes to strange characters, Kramer has to make the list.  It helps in this case that Michael Richards won 3 Emmys for his work during Seinfeld's 9 year run.

CHARACTER #3
Dr. Sheldon Cooper, The Big Bang Theory
Jim Parsons - Emmy for Best Actor in a Comedy Series, 2010 & 2011
Bazinga! With his back-to-back Emmy wins, Jim Parsons' performance as Sheldon Cooper is one of the reasons for this list (he was one of the first ones I thought of when I devised the category!).  His anal-retentive nature and his constant need to be right all the time makes it very hard for his friends to be around him and also makes him one of the funniest characters on Television today.  Just remember, don't sit in his spot!

CHARACTER(S) #2
Edith Bouvier Beale & Little Edie Beale, Grey Gardens
Christine Ebersole - Tony for Best Actress in a Musical, 2007
Mary Louise Wilson - Tony for Best Featured Actress in a Musical, 2007
and
Jessica Lange - Emmy for Best Actress in a TV Movie, 2009
The documentary about the mother and daughter (related to Jackie Kennedy!) and their dilapidated East Hampton home has been beloved by many fans of underground cinema.  Their fascinating life story has been turned into a critically-acclaimed musical (which won Tonys for its leading ladies!) and a critically-acclaimed HBO TV Movie (which won Jessica Lange an Emmy and co-star/producer Drew Barrymore a Golden Globe!).

AND...
CHARACTER #1
The Master of Ceremonies, Cabaret
Joel Grey - Tony for Best Featured Actor in a Musical, 1967 & Oscar for Best Supporting Actor, 1973
Alan Cumming - Tony for Best Actor in a Musical, 1998
When it comes to strange, I don't believe anyone can touch the oddity that is the Emcee from John Kander and Fred Ebb's most enduring musical.  Joel Grey enlivened this character to full effect (both on Broadway and on film) and the metaphor for Hitler and the Nazi party is quite prominent.  At times the character can be very over-the-top with his excessive garishness, but that's how he's supposed to be (just ask Alan Cumming, who winningly played him in the darker and more disturbing revival in the late 1990s).

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Oscar Predictions - Part II

With Part I of my Oscar predictions out of the way, it is time to finish up with the Writing, Directing and, of course, the most important award of them all: Best Picture.  Let me give you a reminder of what the percentages mean when I talk about each nominee:

• under 5% - very very slim chance, just count it/him/her lucky to be nominated
• between 5 and 20% - chances slightly better, yet no real chance
• between 20 and 30% - stronger chances, could pull off an upset
• between 30 and 50% - really good chances, most likely the front-runner
• over 50% - clear the mantle, your Oscar is ready for you

Now, on with the show, so to speak:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

And the nominees are: 

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants; John Logan, Hugo; George Clooney, Grant Heslov & Beau Willimon, The Ides of March; Steven Zaillian & Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball; Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Prediction: The Descendants - 42%

The rest: Moneyball - 36%; Hugo - 13%; Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy - 6%; The Ides of March - 3%

Explanation: With yesterday's Writer's Guild Awards win, Alexander Payne's emotional dramedy The Descendants has positioned itself as the major front-runner in this category.  Its stiffest competition comes in the form of two of the category's previous winners and their collaboration which garnered them the Critics Choice Award winner for Adapted Screenplay.  Aaron Sorkin's (whose work on last year's The Social Network won him every award possible) and Steven Zaillian (who won almost 20 years ago for his adaptation of Schindler's List) collaborated on the audience favorite Brad Pitt-lead film about the Oakland Athletics, Moneyball.  While The Descendants has the love of the Writer's Guild, remember that the WGA winner doesn't always find themselves as the Oscar-winner (see Up In the Air vs. Precious in 2010).  Tony-winning writer John Logan has a small chance for his adaptation of Hugo thanks to the film's number of nominations, but the film has been praised as more Martin Scorsese's success than that of its writer.  The much-praised adaptation of John Le Carre's Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy seems more like a lovable longshot and George Clooney's The Ides of March has had such a poor showing in nominations (much to many critics' chagrin) that it really is lucky to be in the mix at all.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

And the nominees are: 

Michel Hazanavicus, The Artist; Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids; J.C. Chandor, Margin Call; Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris; Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Prediction: Midnight In Paris - 45%

The rest: The Artist - 35%; Bridesmaids - 15%; A Separation - 3%; Margin Call - 2%

Explanation: This is Woody Allen's 15th Original Screenplay nomination (he has won this award twice for Annie Hall and Hannah and Her Sisters in 1978 and 1987, respectively).  He won the Writer's Guild Award yesterday as well as the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards.  In this category, he is the film titan to beat.  That is why I cannot rule out the possibility of a potential sweep of major categories from Best Picture front-runner The Artist.  If the Academy have truly taken Michel Hazanavicius' silent wonder into their hearts, the love may trickle into the Best Screenplay category (just like Best Picture winners The Hurt Locker and  The King's Speech did in the previous years).  Saturday Night Live star Kristen Wiig and fellow Grounding Annie Mumolo co-wrote the Summer comedy blockbuster Bridesmaids and their nomination has pleased many people (critics and audiences alike!).  However, raunchy comedies rarely get noticed by the Academy, so in this case the nomination is a win.  Foreign Film front-runner A Separation has a slightly (really slightly!) better chance than the really independent (yet really all-star!) Margin Call.

BEST DIRECTOR

And the nominees are: 

Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris; Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life; Alexander Payne, The Descendants; Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius - 50%

The rest: Martin Scorsese - 23%; Alexander Payne - 13%; Woody Allen - 11%; Terrence Malick - 3%

Explanation: Last year when I predicted that David Fincher would defeat Tom Hooper in this category, the Director's Guild had not handed down their opinion yet.  Thanks to the DGA Awards being earlier this Oscar Season, I can say with a little more confidence that The Artist's Michel Hazanavicius will be victorious in this category come Oscar night.  It is extremely rare that the Director's Guild winner is not the Oscar's Best Director (but it has happened!).  So if Hazanavicius is found, by some chance, not to be in the winner's circle that night, who will be?  The most likely candidate would be Hollywood's favorite auteur director Martin Scorsese.  Scorsese spent years being ignored by the Academy for his gritty and graphic violent movies like Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, GoodFellas and Gangs of New York.  In 2007, his long streak of losses ended with his win for the just-as-gritty The Departed.  Since then, many have felt that one Best Director win is not enough for the legendary filmmaker.  His out-of-the-box choice of directing the fantasy epic Hugo was deemed the Best Film by both the American Film Institute and the National Board of Review.  Also Hugo has the most Oscar nominations, which is definitely in Marty's favor.  As for the others, both Alexander Payne and Woody Allen are front-runners in the Screenplay categories so that is where they are likely to shine.  And Terrence Malick, though he won early awards (like Cannes!), his Tree of Life lost momentum going into the heavier part of Oscar Season (like the Golden Globes or the DGAs).  In fact, he wasn't even recognized by the Guild this year (David Fincher was nominated there along with the other four Oscar nominees for his stylish remake of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo).

BEST PICTURE

And the nominees are: 

The Artist; The Descendants; Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; The Help; Hugo; Midnight In Paris; Moneyball; The Tree of Life; War Horse

Prediction: The Artist - 35%

The rest: Hugo and The Descendants -15% each; The Help, Moneyball and Midnight In Paris - 10% each; War Horse - 3%; The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - 1% each

Explanation: With 9 films in the mix this year, the distribution of odds was slightly tougher.  That's why it was easier to bundle films together that had similar chances.  It pretty clear on most of the sites that follow the Awards that The Artist is the definite front-runner for the top prize (I have stated so at least 3 or 4 times on this blog alone!).  There are really only two films in the category that could challenge The Artist's dominance.  As I said above, Hugo won top prizes from the American Film Institute and the National Board of Review as well as receiving the most Oscar nominations for any film this year (with 11 nods to the The Artist's 10).  However, getting the most nominations does not mean a Best Picture win (see Avatar, Benjamin Button, There Will Be Blood and even Dreamgirls for proof!).  The Descendants won the Golden Globe (for Best Picture -Drama), the L.A. Film Critics prize and the Golden Satellite (again for Best Picture - Drama).  However, in two of those scenarios, The Descendants was not competing against The Artist.  Both The Help and Moneyball may be audience favorites and Midnight In Paris may have that Woody Allen pedigree behind it, but their equal chances dwindle with each passing moment.  And when it comes to pedigree (unintended Horse pun!), no one has more than Steven Spielberg.  However with no Best Director nod for the Hollywood heavyweight, his poignant and sentimental War Horse loses more and more steam.  Both The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close were early favorites in the season, yet little showing among the Guilds and other awards puts them on the "in your dreams" list.  All of this aside, The Artist has the most momentum and the most praise.  Let's see the first silent film to win Best Picture since Wings back in 1928 (the first year of the Oscars!).

As for all of the other categories, expect Hugo and The Artist to battle it out in most of the technical categories (i.e. Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Art Direction, etc.).  In Animated Film, the Spring hit Rango would be the one to bet on as the winner there.  And expect the Muppets to be victorious in the (albeit strange!) race for Best Song.  With all this said, I look forward to Sunday, February 26 when the Oscars will be handed out.  And after last year's lackluster ceremony, I'm even looking forward to a spirited televised event on ABC thanks to the choice of host: the ever-popular Billy Crystal.  Good luck to all the Nominees and Happy Oscar watching!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Oscar Predictions - Part I

With the Oscars less than 10 days away (Sunday, February 26 on ABC), it is time for me to start sharing with all of you my predictions for who shall win on Awards night.  Today, I will cover the four acting awards (as those tend to be the only awards people care about!).  On Monday, I will discuss the writing, directing and Best Picture awards.  If I'm in the mood, I may even add some predictions for the other categories (usually referred to as "technical categories").  Before I start, let me give you a quick breakdown of what the percentage odds mean for each nominated person/film:

• under 5% - very very slim chance, just count it/him/her lucky to be nominated
• between 5 and 20% - chances slightly better, yet no real chance
• between 20 and 30% - stronger chances, could pull off an upset
• between 30 and 50% - really good chances, most likely the front-runner
• over 50% - clear the mantle, your Oscar is ready for you

With that out of the way, let's talk about the Acting categories!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

And the nominees are: 

Berenice Bejo, The Artist; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Octavia Spencer, The Help

Prediction: Octavia Spencer - 60%

The rest: Berenice Bejo - 25%; Melissa McCarthy, Janet McTeer and Jessica Chastain - 5% each

Explanation: Spencer has won most of the Oscar precursor awards for her scene-stealing performance in the audience favored The Help.  Bejo could be a spoiler if Best Picture front-runner The Artist pulls off a sweep.  McCarthy is one of the few nominees in Oscar history for a comedic performance (meaning the nomination is the win!).  Tony-winner McTeer is an awards favorite, but hasn't been hitting the Oscar campaign like her co-star Glenn Close.  And Chastain's nomination is the benefit of roles in other critically notable films this year (see The Debt, Take Shelter, Coriolanus and Best Picture nominee The Tree of Life) and an over-the-top performance in a strong ensemble film.  But by all accounts, Spencer is the one to watch in The Help's brilliant ensemble (hence her wins at the Golden Globes, SAGs, BAFTAs and Critics Choice Awards!).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

And the nominees are: 

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn; Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Nick Nolte, Warrior; Christopher Plummer, Beginners; Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Prediction: Christopher Plummer - 72%

The rest: Kenneth Branagh and Max Von Sydow - 9% each; Jonah Hill - 6%; Nick Nolte - 4%

Explanation: Plummer is an extremely well-respected character actor amongst Hollywood's elite (and New York and London's for that matter!).  It was mind-boggling to many pundits a few years ago that after several years in many noteworthy films that his Best Supporting Actor nod for The Last Station was his first.  Now, he has a touching and funny role in an independent critical hit and has won literally every Oscar precursor award from the New York and L.A. Film Critics to the Golden Globe and SAG Awards.  If there is a lock for Oscar night, it is Plummer's win in this category.  As for the others, Branagh and Von Sydow each have a shot as their films are notable (and they have the veteran status in their corner as well!).  Hill is in the most notable film in the bunch.  But in a field full of veterans, the fact that he is an Oscar nominee is a reward.  And Nolte garnered his third nomination for his critically acclaimed performance in a so-so film that has received no other nominations.

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

And the nominees are: 

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs; Viola Davis, The Help; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Prediction: Viola Davis - 33%

The rest: Meryl Streep - 30%; Michelle Williams - 22%; Glenn Close - 12%; Rooney Mara - 3%

Explanation: This is probably the closest race of the high-profile categories.  Viola Davis won the SAG and Critics Choice Awards and her win (coupled with co-star Spencer's presumed win) would be a historic photo-op and one for the record books.  However, acting's unofficial "Grand Dame" Meryl Streep won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the National Society of Film Critics Awards.  This is her 17th nomination in 35 years in the film business and she has not won an Oscar since 1983 (when she won her second one for her brilliant performance in Sophie's Choice).  On the other hand, most of Streep's nominations (with a few exceptions) are for films in which she is the primary highlight and the films themselves are not on anyone's Greatest lists (meaning they range from "So-So" to "Above Average" and if she wasn't in them, they'd be "Crap").  And, according to most critics, The Iron Lady falls under that category.  If the Academy voters have trouble choosing between the two dramatic heavyweights, a split still is possible and Golden Globe winner Michelle Williams is the likely benefactor of such a possibility.  Meanwhile, Glenn Close (who hasn't been nominated since 1988's Dangerous Liaisons!) has been hitting the Awards campaign circuit, but with no precursor wins (losing to either Streep or Davis) an Oscar is unlikely.  And newcomer Rooney Mara is the perfect example of "lucky to be nominated."

BEST LEADING ACTOR

And the nominees are: 

Demian Bichir, A Better Life; George Clooney, The Descendants; Jean Dujardin, The Artist; Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Prediction: Jean Dujardin - 40%

The rest: George Clooney - 35%; Brad Pitt - 20%; Gary Oldman - 3%; Demian Bichir - 2%

Explanation: No one was surprised when Jean Dujardin won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy, but many were surprised when he defeated George Clooney and Brad Pitt at both the SAGs and the BAFTAs.  With those wins, Dujardin upped his odds and cemented the strong possibility of The Artist doing what The King's Speech did last year (win Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and Actor!).  However, George Clooney is a Hollywood heavyweight and his performance in The Descendants is widely acclaimed (winning the Golden Globe for Drama and a several other Critcs Awards).  Clooney's pal Brad Pitt, another Hollywood heavyweight, has yet to win an Oscar and he gives the type of performance in Moneyball that would win in any other year.  Sympathy could help him pull off a spoiler.  Had Gary Oldman won the BAFTA, his chances would be slightly higher.  And SAG nominee Demian Bichir pulled off a surprise getting the fifth slot in this race (meaning slim is the politest word for his chances!).

So there you have it, my predictions for the Acting Awards at this year's Oscars.  On Monday, I will talk the top prize (plus some others!).  Stay Tuned!!!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Oscar Nominations - First Response

This past Tuesday morning, the 2012 Oscar nominations were announced.  And I thought I would just share with you some of my initial reactions.  There were things I was proud of and things I liked, but there were also things I really didn't care for or enjoy.  Then there were the things that made my jaw hit the floor (and there were more than I thought there would be!).  So let me give you a rundown of my first thoughts when I saw this year's Oscar nominations.

THE 5 THINGS I LIKED:
After years of brilliant work (often playing villains!), Gary Oldman finally has an Oscar nomination under his belt for his critically lauded, steely performance in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. And with love for the film at the BAFTAs, Oldman could quite possibly be a potential spoiler for frontrunner George Clooney.

Tony-winner Viola Davis and character actress Octavia Spencer got nods for their dynamic performances in the audience favorite The Help.  They are both favorites in their respective categories, so we could possibly have two African-American women winning the Actress and Supporting Actress Oscars this year.

This year's Supporting Actor race is filled with veterans (save for Jonah Hill, see below!).  Kenneth Branagh, who has channeled Laurence Olivier several times before My Week With Marilyn, is nominated for the first time since his nod for Henry V in 1988.  Nick Nolte is enjoying his third Oscar nomination (his first in Supporting!).  Christopher Plummer, one of the film business' best character actors, is the category's clear frontrunner.  And Max Von Sydow is nominated for not even saying a word (he plays a mute in Stephen Daldry's Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close).

As much as veterans are always welcome (see Meryl Streep!), its nice to see a few newcomers in the mix, especially: Rooney Mara (for her astonishing work in David Fincher's The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), Emmy-winner Melissa McCarthy (getting recognized for her scene-stealing performance in Bridesmaids) and The Artist co-stars Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo.

Moneyball was one of my favorite films of the year (not just because I'm from the Bay Area!).  I was very pleased to see it in the Best Picture category as well as nods for Brad Pitt's brilliant performance and the clever screenplay by Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian (two of my favorite screenwriters these days!).

THE 3 THINGS I DISLIKED:
Two of the best films of the year got shut out of the Best Picture category: David Fincher's stylish The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and the powerful finale to the Harry Potter film franchise (more on that below!).

Noteworthy films like The Help and War Horse did get Best Picture nods (and a few other nominations in various categories), but got ignored in ones they really deserved (i.e. Screenplay or Directing!).

When you have to cut it off at 5, several actors with worthy performances got ignored this year.  Among the names that come to mind are: Leonardo DiCaprio, Tilda Swinton, Kirsten Dunst, Michael Fassbender, Ryan Gosling, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Joseph-Gordon Levitt, Emma Stone, Marion Cotillard and Alan Rickman. I'm sure there are more, but I don't want to be here all day!

THE 10 "WHAT-IN-THE-HELL-IS-THE-ACADEMY-THINKING?!?!" THOUGHTS:
Only 9 Best Picture nominees, really?!? They couldn't find one more film they liked well enough to make it an even 10 (especially when films like The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Bridesmaids, The Ides of March, Drive, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II got ignored!)?

Only 2 Best Song nominees?!?! The Academy's Music Department also revamped their voting system and this is their result!?! I'm definitely rooting for the Muppet song (written by Flight of the Conchords' Brett McKenzie), but come on people!!!

While I'm not disputing the five directors who made it into the Best Director category, where is David Fincher? Or Steven Spielberg? Or Bennett Miller? They expanded Best Picture, but Best Director can't get a few more names?

Steven Spielberg can't even get into the Animated category! His The Adventures of Tin-Tin, which won both the Golden Globe and the Producers' Guild Award for Best Animated Feature got shut out of the Oscar's Animated category.

Speaking of the Animated category, both Tin-Tin and Rio garnered nods from the Music Department (Tin-Tin for John Williams' score and Rio for its big musical production number) but neither could get in the Animated biggie.

The most successful movie franchise ended its run this year with a box office bang, but the Academy cannot take the time to recognize the cultural influence the Harry Potter series has had in the last decade.

With The Artist being the definite favorite in the Best Picture race, it may become the first silent Best Picture winner since Wings in 1927 (the very first Best Picture winner!).  This is just more of a surprising thought rather than a "WTF" thought.

Another surprising thought: Michelle Williams has an Oscar nomination for playing the iconic Marilyn Monroe, someone who never got an Oscar nomination herself (be it for Bus Stop or Some Like It Hot or The Seven Year Itch).

One more surprising thought: Meryl Streep has now garnered 17 nominations in 33 years. That almost works out to a nomination every 2 years!

And finally...
Jonah Hill, star of Superbad and Get Him to the Greek, is now an Academy Award Nominee. 'Nuff said.

10 FAVORITES (30) - Movies Get Biblical!

We are almost at the end of April and Easter is finally fast approaching (April 24th is the latest the holiday can be!).  This particular holiday can be just a tad controversial for some and cause the political correctness scale to go a little haywire.  But I shall brave the controversy and the political correctness to talk about movies.  In particular, movies that have drawn their source from quite possibly the most influential book in all of Western Culture.  But, since I couldn't get my hands on a copy of Snooki's book, we'll have to talk about the Bible.

The stories from the Bible have been some of the most difficult to depict on film.  Some films have gotten overly preachy (King of Kings), some get too ambitious for their own good (John Huston's massive flop The Bible) and some go too far in their dramatic interpretation (Samson and Delilah).  There have been few films that have that happy medium between knowing what they are (i.e. what genre they are!), knowing what they are based on (The Bible!) and knowing how to best serve their audience (who are really only looking for entertainment when they go to the movies!).  So this week's 10 FAVORITES are:

THE 10 BEST BIBLE MOVIES

MOVIE #10

The Passion of the Christ (2004)

Mel Gibson's controversial and graphic interpretation of the crucifixion of Jesus Christ is one of the most poignant of the Bible films (and the most successful!).  I must admit that I avoided this movie for the longest time (pretty much because of the controversy surrounding it). But once I saw it, I discovered what there is to appreciate about it.  It's not the absolute best, but it is worth watching (especially around Easter time!).

MOVIE #9

The Ten Commandments (1956)

Talk about another must-watch! This film is the It's a Wonderful Life of Easter time (even though it's about Moses, not Jesus!).  And there is much to appreciate about it, especially considering what master filmmaker Cecil B. DeMille was able to accomplish in 1956.  The parting of the Red Sea scene is particularly fascinating.

MOVIE #8
King David (1985)
This film is little known and it does get a little overly dramatic, especially in Richard Gere's performance as the title character.  But it is nice to see a Biblical movie that doesn't involve Moses, Jesus or Noah!

MOVIE #7

Jesus Christ Superstar (1973)

The first of three musicals to appear on this list, this too also gets a little uber-dramatic in its interpretation, but it IS a musical (and a musical in the rock opera sense!).  Once you accept the genre you are in, you can thoroughly enjoy the Andrew Lloyd Webber-Tim Rice score and the rockin' performances coming from Ted Neeley (in the title role), Yvonne Elliman (repeating her Tony-nominated performance as Mary Magdalene) and the late Carl Anderson (who was absolutely phenomenal as Judas).

MOVIE #6
The Prince of Egypt (1998)
Dreamworks wanted to prove they could do the animated musical as well as Disney and, in order to do that, they got Biblical! This film is quite enjoyable each time I see it, especially because of the songs by Oscar-winner Stephen Schwartz (Wicked).

MOVIE #5

Ben-Hur (1959)

Okay, technically it is not a Bible film, but it does incorporate Jesus' story with that of Ben-Hur's.  And the film is constantly pointed to as part of the "Biblical" genre.  Like DeMille's Ten Commandments (which also starred Charlton Heston), William Wyler's massive epic is quite stunning (especially the groundbreaking and thrilling Chariot race!).  It was the first film to garner 11 Academy Awards, a record that took almost 40 years to be tied (by Titanic in 1998).

MOVIE #4

The Last Temptation of Christ (1988)

Before Mel Gibson tampered with controversy and Christ, there was Marty.  Martin Scorsese, who is quite possibly one of the greatest film directors of all-time, played with fire and directed a dramatic look at Jesus' inner struggle.  When it comes to storytelling, no one does it like Scorsese and this film is among his best.  It features jarring imagery and stellar performances from Willem Dafoe (as Christ), Barbara Heshey (as Mary Magdalene), Harvey Keitel (as Judas) and (in the role of Pontius Pilate) David Bowie!

MOVIE #3

Godspell (1973)

This one is like a mix of the previous two musicals: The story of Jesus with the songs of Stephen Schwartz!  Honestly, Schwartz' score is the major reason I love this film, but the movie does make great use of its New York scenery (especially the World Trade Center) and delightfully fits into the Biblical film genre.

MOVIE #2
The Greatest Story Ever Told (1965)
Of all the Biblical epics (Ben-Hur, Ten Commandments, etc.), this one is truly the best and filled with an all-star cast.  George Stevens (who helmed legendary films like Giant and The Diary of Anne Frank) gives his audience a picturesque and dramatic narrative.  And the performances (led by Max Von Sydow's amazing performance as Jesus) are first rate.

AND...
MOVIE #1
Monty Python's Life of Brian (1979)
Okay, once again, people may think I'm cheating but I just love this film! And if Ben-Hur counts, then so does this one! There's not much I can say about this film that I haven't said already on this blog.  Everything about it makes me smile, especially the final song.

As I may have just angered a lot of people with my #1 choice, I will sign off now.  But I do hope my regular readers come back next week as we talk British royalty (in honor of Prince William's upcoming nuptials!).  In the meantime, enjoy your Easter holiday!  (And if you don't celebrate Easter, have a great weekend!)