IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Emmy Predictions

This Sunday night, the 2012 Primetime Emmy Awards will be given out in a ceremony hosted by Jimmy Kimmel on ABC.  So with the ballots in and the nominees readying themselves for Sunday's festivities, it is time for me to give my predictions in the major categories.  This year, I'll only deal with the Drama and Comedy Series categories as I believe most of the other major categories (Variety, Reality, etc.) are just too predictable (I mean, does anyone really think The Daily Show won't win Best Variety Series for a tenth year in a row!?!?!).

DRAMAS

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Nominees: Boardwalk Empire (HBO), Breaking Bad (AMC), Downton Abbey (PBS), Game of Thrones (HBO), Homeland (Showtime), Mad Men (AMC)

Will Win: Last year, cable favorite Mad Men tied a record with 3 now legendary NBC shows (Hill Street Blues, L.A. Law and The West Wing) by winning this category for a fourth time.  Most critics believe if any show can break the record, its Mad Men.  Their fifth season was one of the most anticipated shows of the Spring schedule and their season was filled with jaw-dropping moments.  And while some may say other shows are stepping up their game, those same people were singing the same tune last year and Mad Men still won.

Should Win: This is tough for me.  While I believe Mad Men will break the record, I would love to see one of two other shows claim the prize.  Showtime's Homeland is smartly written and very timely for this day and age (plus it won the Golden Globe earlier this year!); and Downton Abbey is also smartly written (though about a completely different world than Homeland's!) and brilliantly acted (6 actors are nominated this year for their work!).  Both shows are very deserving of the top prize and have the buzz to push Mad Men off the pedestal (or at least try!).

Dark Horse: But one other show has more buzz going for it than Homeland and Downton Abbey put together, and that is the critically lauded fourth season of Breaking Bad.  If Mad Men's creator Matthew Weiner has left a bad taste in Hollywood's mouth because of his negotiation antics with AMC, Emmy voters could choose to reward the other AMC show nominated and deny Weiner his record-breaking trophy.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Nominees: Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey (PBS); Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire (HBO); Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad (AMC); Michael C. Hall, Dexter (Showtime); John Hamm, Mad Men (AMC); Damian Lewis, Homeland (Showtime)

Will & Should Win: He's won the three other times he was nominated and he gave again a chilling performance in his show's fourth season.  Let's face it, this category belongs to Bryan Cranston!

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Nominees: Kathy Bates, Harry's Law (NBC); Glenn Close, Damages (DirecTV); Claire Danes, Homeland (Showtime); Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey (PBS); Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife (CBS); Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men (AMC)

Will & Should Win: This was another tough category for me.  But Golden Globe winner Claire Danes plays one of the most intriguing characters on Dramatic TV in recent memory.  As a CIA Agent with severe bipolar disorder, Danes' Carrie Mathison does things that most people won't love her for but does them "in the service of her country."  Danes (who won an Emmy two years ago for the HBO movie Temple Grandin) acts with such nuance that you find her character more interesting rather than pathetic.

Don't Count Her Out: If there is one person who can beat Danes, its last year's champ Julianna Margulies.  In her episode submission, Margulies gives one of the best performances she has done on her series The Good Wife (which shamefully was shut out of the Best Drama Series category!).  If Emmy voters find Danes' character too unlikable, they may want to reward Margulies for the second year in a row.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Nominees: Jim Carter, Downton Abbey (PBS); Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey (PBS); Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (HBO); Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad (AMC); Jared Harris, Mad Men (AMC); Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad (AMC)

Will Win: Giancarlo Esposito's work as a ruthless villain on Breaking Bad's fourth season garnered him praise from every TV critic everywhere.  He is the definite front-runner in this category.

Should Win: Last year, I said Game of Thrones' Peter Dinklage "should win" this category and he ended up taking the trophy home.  Dinklage's character is extremely popular on the fan hit (so much so, fans wanted him to submit in the Lead Actor category!).  It is possible that fan love can bring the well-liked character actor a second Emmy win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Nominees: Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (CBS); Joanne Froggat, Downton Abbey (PBS); Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad (AMC); Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (AMC); Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife (CBS); Dame Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PBS)

Will Win: No actor from Mad Men has yet to claim an acting win (isn't that shocking?!?).  But Christina Hendricks' Joan Harris did some amazing (and surprising!) things to make partner at the Sterling-Cooper Ad Agency this season and Hendricks played each moment with a much-lauded steely cool demeanor.  If one actor from Mad Men can win an Emmy this year, my money is on this beauty.

Should Win: There really is nothing like a Dame!  Maggie Smith is utterly brilliant as Downton Abbey's Dowager Countess (she won an Emmy last year!) and there is truly no one like her.

Dark Horse: Breaking Bad garnered more praise and more Emmy nominations for its fourth season and Anna Gunn was a big part of all that praise.  With Cranston and Esposito locks in their categories, Emmy voters may want to reward Gunn and let the show pull off a "threesome."

COMEDIES

BEST COMEDY SERIES

Nominees: The Big Bang Theory (CBS), Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO), Girls (HBO), Modern Family (ABC), 30 Rock (NBC), Veep (HBO)

Will Win: Though I am of the opinion the show has lost some of its edge (and I may be the only one!), ABC's Modern Family will pull off a third win this Sunday.

Should Win: The Sitcom I believed this season really deserved to win this category is not even nominated (NBC's Parks & Recreation). Therefore, I have to shift all my support to the other show I think has earned this award (though this last season was not its best!) and that is CBS' hilarious The Big Bang Theory.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock (NBC); Don Cheadle, House of Lies (Showtime); Louis C. K., Louie (F/X); Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men (CBS); Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO); Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Will Win: Louis C. K. has become more popular (and more lauded) thanks to his work on his self-titled F/X series.  Even though he plays himself (or a version of himself!), his episode submission ("Duckling") is an hour-long giving voters more of him to see than his fellow nominees.  Plus he goes to the Mid-East on a USO tour in the episode, politics is in this election year!
Should Win: If any actor deserves a win for playing himself on a show, it is Larry David.  He's been nominated for Curb Your Enthusiasm several times now and still has no award to show for it.  Maybe that's why the real George Costanza is so irascible!
Don't Count Him Out: Jim Parsons is the reigning champ in this category (having won the last two years in a row!) and his episode submission is a good one.  Next to Alec Baldwin, he is the most recognizable nominee (which, for some Emmy voters, means most deserving!).

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Zooey Deschanel, New Girl (FOX); Lena Dunham, Girls (HBO); Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie (Showtime); Tina Fey, 30 Rock (NBC); Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (HBO); Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly (CBS); Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation (NBC)
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus is beloved by the Emmys.  She has won Supporting Actress (for Seinfeld) and Lead Actress (for The New Adventures of Old Christine).  And this nomination (her 13th!) ties her with TV Comedy legend Lucille Ball.  Plus, Veep is nominated for Best Comedy Series and that is always a plus (it worked for Edie Falco two years ago!).
Should Win: TV's new "It Girl" of last season was really the New Girl.  Zooey Deschanel brought her adorkable self into audiences hearts and helped FOX rebuild their Sitcom status (Tuesdays this Fall on FOX is centered around New Girl instead of Glee!).
Don't Count Her Out: Even though her series is shy of Best Comedy Series nod (shame on you Emmy voters!), Amy Poehler is a heavy favorite going into Sunday night.  She had a great year on her show (her character Leslie Knope ran for a higher office) and fans of her (dating back to her SNL days!) feel she is truly deserving of her first acting Emmy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Ty Burrell, Modern Family (ABC); Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family (ABC); Max Greenfield, New Girl (FOX); Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Ed O'Neill, Modern Family (ABC); Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family (ABC)
Will Win: Does it really matter?  It's going to be one of the guys from Modern Family!  Pick one!  If the Emmys are in a rut, they'll reward Burrell or Stonestreet for a second time.  If not, Ferguson or O'Neill could reap the benefits.  If I had to choose (which I guess I do!), Burrell's role is showier while O'Neill is the most deserving (thanks to his years in the business!).  I guess I'd give the edge to Burrell.
Should Win: Without Parks & Rec's Nick Offerman or Community's Danny Pudi or even Glee's Chris Colfer, my hopes for beating the Modern Family juggernaut lie with New Girl's Max Greenfield who has delighted many critics with his slutty-yet-nerdy-and-even-lovable Schmidt.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory (CBS); Julie Bowen, Modern Family (ABC); Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives (ABC); Sofia Vergara, Modern Family (ABC); Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie (Showtime); Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Will Win: With her final season on the late-night Variety series, Kristen Wiig earned her fourth (and possibly final) acting Emmy nomination.  She has been an integral part of the SNL cast over most of the last decade and now embarking on a film career (which earned her an Oscar nod for co-writing Bridesmaids earlier this year!).  An Emmy would be the cherry on the sundae, so-to-speak.
Should Win: Mayim Bialik has been a welcomed and brilliant addition to The Big Bang Theory cast.  Her Amy Farrah-Fowler is hilarious in her need for affection from Sheldon or her "slight" stalking of BFF Penny.  It would be nice to see Blossom reap an Emmy.
Dark Horse: While Wiig left SNL, Kathryn Joosten left this earth.  Joosten, who had won two Guest Actress Emmys for playing crotchety neighbor Mrs. McCluskey, submitted the Desperate Housewives finale in which her character passed away from cancer.  Less than a month after the finale aired, Joosten herself lost her battle with the disease.  Joosten was a beloved member of the Hollywood community and a posthumous Emmy could show just how much.

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Emmy Nominations

Today I thought I would share some of my initial reactions and thoughts to yesterday morning's Emmy Nominations for 2012. So let's get to it:

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Boardwalk Empire, Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, Mad Men
Though I'm surprised that CBS' The Good Wife got eked out of the running, it is in no way a shocker that Cable is dominating this category. So PBS will serve as this category's lone Broadcast network vying for the top prize this year.

BEST COMEDY SERIES

The Big Bang Theory, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Girls, Modern Family, 30 Rock, Veep
The biggest shocker here is that NBC's Parks & Recreation, which had one of the funniest seasons of any sitcom this year, was nudged off the list by HBO's triumvirate of Spring hits: returning fave Curb Your Enthusiasm and new critical favorites Girls and Veep. The other three nominees (Modern Family, The Big Bang Theory and 30 Rock) were predicted on every pundits' list.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

Kathy Bates, Harry's Law; Glenn Close, Damages; Claire Danes, Homeland; Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey; Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife; Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Mostly the usual suspects ended up here. Kathy Bates is kind of a surprise as her series was cancelled by NBC back in May (which is never really a good thing in Emmy's eyes!). As far as snubs go, Sons of Anarchy's Katey Sagal and Revenge's Madeleine Stowe had a lot of fan love behind them, but Emmys tend to ignore what the fans want. As expected, this race will end up as a showdown between Golden Globe winner Claire Danes and last year's Emmy champ Julianna Margulies.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey; Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire; Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad; Michael C. Hall, Dexter; John Hamm, Mad Men; Damian Lewis, Homeland
It looks like Hugh Laurie has been replaced by Hugh Bonneville. Bonneville was definitely in the running for his steely reserved role on PBS' lauded series. And Laurie was a long shot for his swan song season of the FOX medical drama. As for the other nominees, they were pretty much as predicted. But why don't we save everyone the trouble and give Bryan Cranston his fourth Emmy Award now?

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl; Lena Dunham, Girls; Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie; Tina Fey, 30 Rock; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep; Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly; Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation
Seven nominees!?!?! And all seven ladies extremely deserving on their respective shows. Poehler, Louis-Dreyfus and Fey were pretty much locks for nominations. Deschanel and Dunham have their respective networks campaigning vigorously for them. And previous winners Falco and McCarthy want to ensure their wins were not flukes. In the snub list (though many of them shouldn't be surprised!) include: Laura Dern, Laura Linney, Martha Plimpton, Lea Michele, Mary Louise Parker, Kat Dennings, Kaley Cuoco and Felicity Huffman.

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock; Don Cheadle, House of Lies; Louis C.K., Louie; Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men; Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm; Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

No surprise that Baldwin, David and Parsons got nominated. As for Louis C.K., though his series got snubbed in the Comedy Series category, he was a favorite for a nod this year (having been nominated last year!). Though House of Lies was not beloved by the critics, Cheadle's performance was. The big shocker here is that Jon Cryer, now submitting himself in the Lead Actor category, got a nod despite his once #1 show's sagging ratings (seriously, Emmy voters still watch Two and a Half Men?!?!).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife; Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey; Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad; Christina Hendricks, Mad Men; Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife; Dame Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
This is the Dame's category! Maggie Smith, who won Supporting Actress in a Miniseries last year for the show's first season, is the presumed frontrunner in this category. Previous winner Archie Panjabi and previous nominees Christine Baranski and Christina Hendricks were definite locks for a nod each. The two surprises in this category are Smith's co-star Joanne Froggatt (for her strong portrayal of the head housemaid) and Breaking Bad's Anna Gunn, who critics have loved for years but has never received Emmy love until now. Unfortunately, that left out the likes of Boardwalk Empire's phenomenal Kelly MacDonald and Smash's Anjelica Huston for nominations that in any other year they might have received.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA

Jim Carter, Downton Abbey; Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey; Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones; Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad; Jared Harris, Mad Men; Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
No shocker that previous winners Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage scored nods for their work again. And Giancarlo Esposito got some of the best reviews of any actor on TV last year for Breaking Bad's fourth season, so he was a lock. The surprises here are for Jared Harris' nod for his shocking season on Mad Men (in place of his usually more loved co-star John Slattery!) and Downton Abbey's double nods for British character actors Jim Carter and Brendan Coyle. It seems like Breaking Bad and Downton Abbey are the Dramas that will give Mad Men a run for their money this year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory; Julie Bowen, Modern Family; Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives; Sofia Vergara, Modern Family; Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie; Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
With Jane Lynch, Betty White and Jane Krakowski falling off the radar in this category, slots became wide open this year. Kathryn Joosten's death in May ensured her the "venerable veteran" spot in this category over the likes of White and Cloris Leachman. But the greatest surprises were the nods for critical favorites Mayim Bialik and Merritt Wever (of The Big Bang Theory and Nurse Jackie, respectively). They have gotten praise from critics for the past few years but hadn't received well-deserved Emmy nods until now. Modern Family's Sofia Vergara and Julie Bowen were both definite nods this year (the latter having won this award last year). And Kristen Wiig's final year on SNL was full of laughs and praise for her work, so she was a lock as well.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY

Ty Burrell, Modern Family; Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family; Max Greenfield, New Girl; Bill Hader,

Saturday Night Live; Ed O'Neill, Modern Family; Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Should one show dominate an entire category? While the men of Modern Family are very deserving, with all four of them submitted in this category (and the seemingly enduring love Emmy seems to have for the show) means that equally deserving men from other shows get snubbed (see Neil Patrick Harris, Nick Offerman, Danny Pudi, Chris Colfer, Simon Helberg or many many more!). The other two spots however went to surprising (yet welcomed) choices. New Girl's Max Greenfield has made his character a popular favorite with critics and Bill Hader has become an integral member of the SNL cast. Maybe one of these two could defeat the Modern Family juggernaut (but that's a very unlikely maybe!).


Tonight's post is dedicated to the Victims of the shooting in Aurora, Colorado and their families. Let us keep them in our thoughts as we remember that all they wanted to do was enjoy a much-anticipated movie and were subjected to a horrific tragedy. Do not let the act of one madman spoil the things we sometimes take for granted in this world including enjoying the simple pleasures of life (like a Film or a TV Show).

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: Same Old, Same Old...

Next week, the 2012 Emmy nominations will be announced (Thursday, July 19th at 5:30AM PST to be exact).  And the media will be going crazy trying to give their last minute predictions.  When you look at the potential crop of nominees (particularly for the top two prizes!), it does whittle itself down to the usual suspects with a few new faces in the mix.  Could we be in store for more repeat victories?  Will Mad Men break the record and win a fifth consecutive Best Drama Series Emmy?  Can any Comedy stop Modern Family from dominating the categories?  If you look around the Internet, the virtual "consensus" (with very few people disagreeing) is that this year's Emmy winners may not differ from last year's Awards...and the year before that.  Maybe the question we should be asking is: Are the Emmys in a rut?

The thing about Television and the Emmy Awards is that unlike the Oscars or the Tonys (where there's a different winner every year), the shows that win tend to stay on the radar with the Academy.  That's how Hill Street Blues was able to make that record that L.A. Law and The West Wing tied and that Mad Men is now trying to surpass.  But can Mad Men do it?  To be honest, the series is vulnerable in this category.  It's fifth season premiered in March after a long behind-the-scenes battle that left a bad mojo in the Hollywood air regarding creator Matt Weiner.  And critically speaking, while the season had its standout moments (a resignation, a "prostitution," a suicide and Rory Gilmore's boobs!), most agree that it did not have the caliber of episodes that the last four Emmy-winning seasons did.  To be fair, last year, Mad Men was considered vulnerable to a potential loss at the hands of HBO's Boardwalk Empire and yet still prevailed.  This year, the field is more open.  In addition to Boardwalk Empire, HBO's Game of Thrones is hoping to capitalize on their surprise Emmy nod last year and the fervent love of its fans.  Then there is Showtime.  While most critics agree that Dexter is down for the count in this category after many a disjointed season, the network's new critical darling is the terrorist-themed Homeland (which managed to win the Golden Globe for Best Drama Series back in January).  And pay-cable station Starz wants to get into the running, campaigning heavily for its Kelsey Grammer-led Boss despite lackluster ratings and reviews.  Also, Mad Men's Emmy dreams may be dashed from within their own backyard.  AMC has managed to garner Best Drama nods for Breaking Bad in the past and, after a yearlong hiatus, it returned with what many said was its best season yet.  And AMC is throwing some Emmy campaigning towards their "genre" show: the zombie-themed The Walking Dead (AMC possibly making up for the fact that the network's budget cuts led to the resignation of original showrunner Frank Darabont!).  What you notice about the potential spoilers to Mad Men's party are that (like Mad Men) they come from the world of cable.  Broadcast TV has not had a Best Drama Emmy win since FOX's 24 back in 2007 (the last Drama to win before Mad Men's dominance).  As far as the pundits go, there are only two Broadcast Dramas that even have a chance of making it into the Emmy race (and one that just might...a very limited might).  CBS' The Good Wife is still one of the best shows (if not the best) on the major networks and it definitely gets Emmy love (especially in the acting categories).  While its third season was not on the exact same level as the previous two, it still was riveting Dramatic Television.  And PBS may make its way into the Best Drama race for the first time since 1988.  With the British hit Downton Abbey (which dominated the Miniseries categories last year for its first season) now maneuvering itself into the Drama categories, expect Emmys to take notice.  NBC does have hopes for its highly-anticipated-yet-not-well-loved Musical-Drama series Smash to get into the fold, but its chances are extremely remote.  ABC hopes that fan love could bring Emmy attention to either Once Upon a Time or Revenge, but with all the cable offerings, a nod for either is highly doubtful.  All other Drama shows (including the medically-themed Grey's Anatomy and the last season of House M.D.) will be left out in the cold.  Expect cable to be dominating this category for at least the next five years whether Mad Men wins or not!

Guaranteed a Nomination: Mad Men
Definitely in the Running: Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Homeland
On the Radar: Boardwalk Empire, Game of Thrones, The Good Wife
Long Shots: Boss, Dexter, Grey's Anatomy, House M.D., Once Upon a Time, Revenge, Smash, The Walking Dead

In the Comedy Series race, we have a similar yet different story.  Modern Family is a juggernaut that just doesn't seem to be beatable.  The ABC hit is still a critical darling (despite a few missteps) and does really well in its Wednesday time slot (even in reruns!).  Most pundits are hard press to think of a show that can take it down...but they are out there and they are circling Modern Family like vultures.  The previous tenant of the Best Comedy frontrunner spot (before Modern Family came along) was NBC's 30 Rock (which won 3 years in row).  Tina Fey's backstage sitcom managed to put out some of its funniest episodes this year and officially announced that next season will be its last.  Emmy will not want to forget one of their staples.  NBC's other comedy that had a spectacular season was Parks and Recreation.  The Amy Poehler-led mockumentary-styled series has great fans with both audiences and critics alike.  It is positioning itself to be a top contender.  And CBS will not be denied with its most popular (critically-wise) sitcom: The Big Bang Theory.  The show is definitely on the radar as lead Jim Parsons has managed to win two Emmys for his role as Dr. Sheldon Cooper.  And HBO (not to be left out of the party!) saw the return of their extremely popular Curb Your Enthusiasm after a yearlong hiatus.  Larry David and company were critically hailed as very refreshing and just as funny as in previous years.  FX would love for its critically popular series Louie to garner top praise from Emmy.  After receiving a Best Actor nod last year for Louis C.K., the cable network is throwing itself into a campaign.  But four new female-led Comedies could make their way into to the race.  HBO scored many fans with three new shows this season (all starring potential Best Actress nominees): Enlightened (starring Golden Globe winner Laura Dern), Girls (created and starring the breakout star Lena Dunham) and Veep (starring the ever-popular Emmy-winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus).  Each of them could be a dark horse in the race should one be lucky enough to be nominated.  And FOX had some great success with their adorkable new star of their new show titled New Girl.  Zooey Deschanel has won many fans and critics just love her as the quirky teacher living (platonically) with 3 guys.  And FOX is no stranger to popularity.  However, Glee's extremely disjointed third season may have "jumped the shark" and turned Emmy voters away from it (putting the once popular hit into the long shot category).  And NBC's fan-beloved-yet-ratings-challenged Community may be deserving of a nomination, but after many a backstage scuffle that leaked to the public resulting in the firing of creator Dan Harmon and NBC's choice to move the show to the "dead zone" that is Friday come the fall, the show may join network cohort The Office in long shot territory.  The Office suffered a major blow thanks to last year's exit of original lead Steve Carell.  Emmy may chose to ignore the once loved series (the show won Best Comedy Series back in 2006!).  And Showtime's critically-acclaimed female-led shows, particularly The Big C and Nurse Jackie, are also slowly falling off the Emmy radar (even though both Laura Linney and Edie Falco garnered Best Actress nods last year!).  All this said, it looks like Modern Family may be adding a third Best Comedy win to their "mantle."

Guaranteed a Nomination: Modern Family
Definitely in the Running: 30 Rock, The Big Bang Theory, Parks and Recreation
On the Radar: Curb Your Enthusiasm, Enlightened, Girls, Louie, New Girl, Veep
Long Shots: The Big C, Community, Glee, Nurse Jackie, The Office

10 FAVORITES (56): Jumping Sharks

Television is a vast landscape with shows that are around for all of five minutes to shows that seem to go on forever (and ever...and ever!).  For the ones that go on too long, there is a name for that.  It is a delightful little trope that has made its way into our cultural lexicon: Jumping the Shark.  There is even a whole website devoted to figuring out exactly when TV shows (past and present!) indeed "jumped the shark."  This year, a couple of the shows that would have been considered shoe-ins for this category announced their impending departure (House M.D. and Desperate Housewives).  And some of the more popular "bubble shows" have been announced for renewal but with the caveat that next year will be their last.  But there are several other shows that are currently airing on Network TV that deserve a good reprimand.  They have waded their way into Shark-Jumping Territory and they should take a page out of Fringe's notebook and think about calling next season their "Swan Song."  This week's 10 FAVORITES are devoted to that group of shows that have, in effect: Jumped the Shark.  (QUICK NOTE: I have not ranked this list, as that might cause too many heated discussions. So they are listed somewhat alphabetically.)

TV SHOWS THAT HAVE

JUMPED THE SHARK

BONES

When the show first started, there was clear sexual tension between Dr. Brennan and Agent Booth (perfectly played by Emily Deschanel and David Boreanaz).  But now that the two characters have finally hooked up and it has resulted in a child, the tension is not as good as it used to be.  The cases are still "fresh" (excuse the term when referring to dead bodies!), but the changing dynamic is quickly getting old.  The two are now literally a married couple (without actually being married!) and they have now gone into the territory that shows like JAG and The X-Files did by diffusing the unspoken sexual tension with actual sex.  Plus the revolving door of "squinterns," which once breathed new life into the show, has now lasted longer than most normal internships. 

THE CSI FRANCHISE
The original has already been renewed for next year, but CBS is beginning to hem and haw when it comes to its two spin-offs.  Both shows have now suffered from abnormal hiatuses this year and original CSI has gone through almost as many cast changes and departures as the original Law & Order (the NBC franchise that inspired CBS to have one!).  While Ted Danson may be playing completely against type and Elizabeth Shue weekly shows why she was an Oscar-nominated actress, CBS might want to consider next year the last for one of their flagship procedurals.

GLEE

I'm going to rant a bit here, folks.  Because this one is definitely on its way to shark-jumping territory (if its not there already!).  The first season was too phenomenal that nothing they could have done would have lived up to it.  So a less-than-stellar second season and an all-over-the-map third season has made the show more disconnected and out-of-touch from what the audiences really want.  And, as far as I'm concerned, they still haven't done the worst they could do.  Yes, this year's Christmas episode was one long "WTF!" and that mid-season jumble filled episode with an attempted suicide and a climactic car crash were definitely over-the-top.  But all of that will pale in comparison to what the creators seem to have planned for the McKinley High students post-Graduation (all the charming Disco or Whitney tributes and cameos by Whoopi and LiLo aren't helping!), since rumors abound that its "senior" stars including Lea Michele, Chris Colfer and Cory Monteith have 7-YEAR CONTRACTS!  Seriously, who hires an actor to play a High School student for 7 YEARS?!?  Apparently FOX does.

GOSSIP GIRL

The show has definitely made its stamp on the culture (when President Obama references you in a speech, I think you've made it!).  But after 5 years, stars Blake Lively and Leighton Meester are exploring their burgeoning film careers.  And once you lose your sexy stars, the show will completely fall off the radar (which is something this fifth-place Network cannot afford for one of their flagship shows!).

GREY'S ANATOMY

For many fans of this medical soap opera, the show "Jumped the Shark" last year with its mega-musical episode that centered on the tuneful delusions of the near-death Dr. Callie Torres (the fabulous Tony-winner Sara Ramirez).  Now, with rumors that stars Patrick Dempsey (aka McDreamy!) and Ellen Pompeo (who just happens to play the Grey in Grey's Anatomy!) might not sign on for next year, the show might just lose the strong storylines and heartwarming characters that once brought female audiences in droves to the show a few years ago.

LAW & ORDER: SPECIAL VICTIMS UNIT

My father religiously watched this show.  He even loves catching this show in its many reruns on USANetwork.  He was very pleased back in 2006 when star Mariska Hargitay won an Emmy Award as Best Actress in a Drama Series (and my father NEVER cares about the Emmys!).  But this year's big cast change (re: the exodus of Cristopher Meloni's stone-faced and complicated Detective Elliot Stabler), has made him abandon the NBC procedural he once championed.  After almost 15 years, maybe creator Dick Wolf should let next year's "Special Victims" be the last ones of the Peacock's profitable franchise.

THE OFFICE

It has already been said by many others...and I'm gonna repeat it: Steve Carell's departure was a blow to this show's dynamic.  Now, it seems that Ed Helms (who was "promoted-from-within" to replace Carell) is eyeing a similar departure (or at least threatening to behind-the-scenes!).  The show has won awards.  It has taken over a prime spot on TV (once owned by the likes of Cheers and Seinfeld!).  It has made comedic all-stars of most of its cast.  It is time for Scranton's Dunder-Mifflin office to close its doors and that "mockumentary" crew to pack up and go home.

REALITY COMPETITION SHOWS

Let's just face it.  The luster is gone.  The bloom is off this rose.  There are really just too many reality shows to say which ones have passed their prime (Idol, DWTS, ANTM, Celebrity Apprentice...just to name a few!).  Most of these shows are in their 8th or even 12th season and they keep using the argument that "Reality TV is cheaper than Scripted TV."  Well, that argument is wearing really thin when promotions for Idol and DWTS cost as much as the budgets on New Girl or 2 Broke Girls.  And then you see the hosts, trainers and judges of these various shows signing on for über-million dollar contracts that would make the casts of Seinfeld and Friends jealous.  Time for these shows to hang up their mirrorballs, stop "firing" celebrities and live with the "Idols" and "Top Models" they've already given us.

THE SETH MACFARLANE SHOWS

Even MacFarlane himself has stated that his landmark sitcom (Family Guy) should have ended years ago.  Now he could be saying this to get people to focus on his other two shows (which, let's face it, are often not as good as Family Guy) or to promote his other projects (his upcoming film Ted or his proposed reboot of The Flintstones).  No matter what his motives are, Family Guy and American Dad! are beginning to show their age and without the original, spin-off The Cleveland Show would just not make sense.

TWO AND A HALF MEN

The show was already on "hollow legs" when Charlie Sheen was drunkenly slurring his way through scenes between angry diatribes aimed at creator Chuck Lorre.  Now with Ashton Kutcher, though the show is still extremely popular in ratings, that can be likened to how people love to watch the beginning of a car accident.  I think the viewers are just hanging in there until the show fails completely (if Kutcher doesn't sign on for next year, we may suffer through a revolving door of "Men" getting paid way too much to take Sheen's place!).

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: The Silver FOX

When I was little and it came to Broadcast Television, there were ONLY 3 networks: The Alphabet (ABC), The Eye (CBS) and The Peacock (NBC).  By the mid-to-late 1980s, each of "the big three" had cornered their own niche audience.  ABC aired several family-friendly shows (like The Wonder Years and Full House) plus other more mature fare for their 10PM time slots (see Moonlighting or thirtysomething).  CBS seemed to have a wider audience but with special attention to both older demographics (especially with their Sunday schedule: 60 Minutes and Murder, She Wrote) and female audiences (with primetime soaps like Dallas and female-led sitcoms like Designing Women).  And then NBC, who also had a wide audience, aired shows that were especially popular with both the critics AND the Emmy Awards (sitcoms like Cheers, The Cosby Show or The Golden Girls and dramas like Hill Street Blues, St. Elsewhere or L.A. Law).

But there seemed to be one audience that was being ignored, at least as far as the powers-that-be at the 20th Century Fox studio were concerned.  Several people (who were around college-age), were looking for programs that catered to their humor, to their style or even to their subversive nature.  And so, a fledgling network was born.  And now 25 years later, "the big three" have expanded into "the big four" (technically "the big five" when you count The CW, but it's not their anniversary!).  In honor of FOX's 25th Anniversary, I would like to take you through their brief history by sharing with you what I believe are the 25 shows that have shaped FOX into what it is today.  Some of them you could probably name right off and others are more like afterthoughts, but all 25 of them made their mark in the network's landscape and helped to re-shape what modern Television is all about.

IN THE BEGINNING...

Married...With Children

21 Jump Street

The Simpsons

These are the shows that birthed FOX.  Married...With Children first aired on April 5, 1987 and 21 Jump Street aired a week later.  The Simpsons first aired as animated shorts between the sketches on Tracey Ullman's comedy-variety show (which aired after Married...With Children) before gaining their very own animated sitcom two years later (a show that is still running today, by the way!).  Married... was especially different as its humor was extremely controversial and graphic showing the complete dysfunction of the Bundy clan.  21 Jump Street, which is now more famous for launching the career of a man named Johnny Depp, was compared in its gritty style to NBC's Hill Street Blues but had a younger appeal.  And as mentioned earlier, the history of The Simpsons is in some way the history of FOX itself.

LEGAL REALITIES
America's Most Wanted
COPS
With a subversive sitcoms (both live and animated) and gritty cop dramas, FOX wanted to jump-the-gun (no pun intended!) before the reality show blitzkrieg.  With both the FBI-led America's Most Wanted and the police docu-series COPS, FOX really was a forerunner before the other networks decided to produce cheaper (and more popular) reality shows.

STEAMY SPELLING SOAPS

Beverly Hills, 90210

Melrose Place

When Johnny Depp left 21 Jump Street to have a film career, FOX needed some shows that had the same youth/teen appeal.  Enter Aaron Spelling (who had massive hits with ABC like Charlie's Angels, Dynasty and The Love Boat).  He was also looking to market programs to a teen audience (and one that could feature is young daughter in the cast!). With the original 90210 in 1990 and Melrose Place two years later, Spelling seemed to define teen viewing in the 1990s.

SKETCH-Y DIVERSITY

In Living Color

MADtv

By the early 1990s, NBC had cornered the market in comedy-variety with Saturday Night Live (which by then had been running over 15 years!).  FOX began with a variety show starring Tracey Ullman, but when that show's animated shorts eclipsed it in popularity, Ullman found herself without a job.  But a few years later, comedian Keenan Ivory Wayans and his pals (including his brother Damon and sister Kim) created a sketch comedy series that appealed to a different audience...a multicultural audience.  With its brash style and SNL-like sketches, the young cast of In Living Color became comedy superstars (especially Jim Carrey, then known as "James Carrey").  They even had hip-hop dancers known as the Fly Girls that personified their show's style (one of them was a young Jennifer Lopez!).  In Living Color's popularity inspired FOX to try their hand at late night variety (to compete with SNL) and thence MADtv was born.

BRING IN 'DA FUNNY

Martin

Living Single

Fresh off the success of In Living Color, FOX wanted to have more comedy shows that appealed to African-American audiences.  Comedian Martin Lawrence, with his many different personalities, had a very successful sitcom that centered around his in-your-face style.  To follow that, Living Single focused on the lives of 4 single African-American women (which included rap star Queen Latifah, former Facts of Life star Kim Fields and In Living Color regular Kim Coles).  Both shows are still quite popular in syndication on various cable networks and are fondly remembered by those of us who grew up with these shows that helped change the face of sitcoms in the '90s.

RE-DEFINING THE GENRES (AND THE EMMYS!)

The X-Files

Ally McBeal

As I said above, NBC seemed to have the Emmy market covered with shows like Cheers, L.A. Law, Seinfeld and E.R. throughout my growth into adulthood.  But FOX was fearless in trying to gain support from audiences and critics when it came to getting awards.  With the sci-fi drama The X-Files, FOX had a major contender.  Audiences took to it with rabid fascination and soon the awards followed.  Emmys finally recognized it with a Best Drama Series nomination in its third season (1995) and two years later star Gillian Anderson won Best Actress in a Drama (making it the first major Emmy for FOX to win!).  To follow that, David E. Kelley's romantic-dramedy Ally McBeal caused a pop culture fervor with its short skirts and dancing babies.  The show became the first FOX series to win the top prize in 1999 when its second season received Best Comedy Series over the likes of Friends, Frasier and Everybody Loves Raymond.

THE SIMPSONS HAVE SOME COMPANY

King of the Hill

Family Guy

The Simpsons opened so many doors for FOX and they knew it.  In the late 1990s, the network started to build around the flagship series by creating an entire night of animated shows.  Of the many animated sitcoms that have popped in and out around The Simpsons' popularity, two of them seemed to stick with audiences (and even some critics!).  King of the Hill,  from Beavis and Butt-head creator Mike Judge, had a homespun humor and was more sitcom-oriented than even The Simpsons (with lessons learned at the end of every episode for both conservative propane dealer Hank Hill and his march-to-his-own-drummer son Bobby).  Then there is Family Guy, Seth MacFarlane's raunchy and even-more subversive sitcom with its cutaway gags and ten-times the dysfunction of anyone in The Simpsons' hometown of Springfield.  Both shows seemed to strengthen The Simpsons' popularity (and quality!) and therefore made themselves more prominent in the minds of those wanting a break from typical live-action fare.

STAR-MAKING COMEDIES

That 70s Show

Malcolm In the Middle

Not to be completely dominated by animated sitcoms, FOX wanted to branch out with ensemble-heavy live-action comedies.  With a nostalgic throwback (like its inspiration Happy Days), That 70s Show made stars out of its young ensemble which included Topher Grace, Laura Prepon, Ashton Kutcher and Mila Kunis.  The show, which ended its run in 2006, is still extremely popular in syndicated airings.  It is one of FOX's most popular shows in syndication (third only to The Simpsons and Family Guy).  FOX's other popular live-action sitcom was Malcolm In the Middle.  Similar to Married...With Children by showing the chaos of a semi-dysfunctional family, the show was very popular with audiences and garnered several Emmy nods for the two actors playing the parents Jane Kaczmarek and Bryan Cranston.  Both actors have since shown their character-actor mettle on various projects from sitcoms to dramatic series to films (with Cranston winning 3 Emmys - so far! - for his dramatic work on AMC's critical hit Breaking Bad).

THE NEW CENTURY BRINGS MORE EMMYS

24

Arrested Development

In the 2000s, bolstered by the major Emmy wins The X-Files and Ally McBeal garnered in the previous decade, FOX was not going to let it lie at just those two.  With the action-packed spy-thriller series 24, FOX had a series that grabbed the critics' attention with its fascinating hook.  The entire season of the show (24 episodes) was one hour of one day, constituting the series to basically flow in "real time."  Season 5, known as "Day 5" in show's lexicon, was the highest rated season and won Best Drama Series (over major contenders like NBC's The West Wing and HBO's The Sopranos) as well as Best Actor in a Drama for star Kiefer Sutherland.  As for Arrested Development, the short-lived but critically-beloved sitcom, the show put FOX back on Emmys radar after Ally McBeal ended.  In 2003, Arrested Development's first season beat out Frasier and Everybody Loves Raymond to the Best Comedy Series prize.

FOX'S NEWER YOUTH APPEAL

The O.C.

American Idol

In the 2000s, the youth culture that FOX first appealed to back when it first began was now what you would call middle-aged.  To grab that younger market that has since become an all-important demographic in the ratings race, FOX went back to "square one" with an Aaron Spelling-style teen drama.  For four years in the middle of the decade, The O.C. became a pop culture phenomenon especially with teen audiences as the show centered around rich teens in Orange County and their bitter rivalries.  But FOX's major hit with younger audiences was a little show that was basically a singing competition.  American Idol, which was the U.S. version of the European hit Pop Idol, has dominated FOX Broadcasting over the past decade.  With its crazy judges (Simon Cowell and Paula Abdul!) and star-making eliminations (from Kelly Clarkson to Carrie Underwood!), the show's power cannot be denied.  Even with new judges (including former Fly Girl Jennifer Lopez!), the show still manages to garner the attention of a massive audience that craves reality competitions.  Idol even has its copycats from NBC's The Voice to FOX's new Simon Cowell-import The X-Factor.

FOX'S PROCEDURAL STAPLES

House M.D.

Bones

Who said CBS could be the masters of procedural Television?  FOX, thanks to both The X-Files and 24, have built part of their current reputation around shows that solve the case within the hour, the procedural.  And they went beyond the typical police procedural that CBS was so good at (see CSI or NCIS).  They branched it out into medical science and forensic anthropology.  Led by a more dramatic Hugh Laurie, House M.D. was about a grouchy and people-repellent diagnostician who could solve any case put before him no matter how strange.  After 8 years, Laurie is hanging up his cane and stethoscope as Dr. House after garnering 6 Emmy nominations (with a possible 7th to come!).  Bones, House's sometime partner, centered on the genius-like mind of forensic anthropologist Dr. Temperence "Bones" Brennan and her knack for solving crimes with her FBI partner Sealy Booth.  The character was loosely based on a lead character from the books by noted anthropologist Kathy Reichs (Brennan being a character she loosely based on herself!).

RE-DEFINING THE GENRES (YET AGAIN!)

Fringe

Glee

Like The X-Files did in the 1990s, Fringe is once again re-defining what a sci-fi drama can be about.  Part procedural (like Bones) but also part soap-opera drama (with its romantic entanglements and familial estrangements), Fringe is a complete original with its exploration of parallel universes and Roswell-ian creatures.  The show has a large and vocal fanbase that has kept this "bubble show" going for four years and may very well get it a fifth season renewal.  And like they did with Ally McBeal in the late '90s, FOX is once again re-defining the modern dramedy.  Let us not forget Glee!  Ryan Murphy's uber-popular (at least in its first season!) mega-musical comedy-drama has garnered so much attention that people have gotten sick of it fairly quickly (teen suicide storylines don't help either!).  But the series has made its impression and will probably stick around for a fourth and maybe even fifth season (that teen market has money to burn people!).  It also has pioneered (or at least co-pioneered) the use of other media when it comes to promoting the show (particularly iTunes and YouTube!).

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY FOX!

You have made TV life very interesting for the past 25 years!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2011 Emmy Award Predictions - Part II: Drama

And now, it is time for more 2011 Emmy Predictions.  Today, let's comb through the Drama categories!

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Boardwalk Empire (HBO), Dexter (Showtime), Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV), Game of Thrones (HBO), The Good Wife (CBS), Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Three-time winner Mad Men is trying for a fourth consecutive win (only Hill Street Blues and The West Wing have had four consecutive* Best Drama Series wins!); Showtime's Dexter had a less-than-stellar fourth season, but is still loved by audiences; Critical favorite Friday Night Lights ended it's rocky five-year run (on cable's DirecTV before being rerun on NBC!) and finally garnered one of the top nods; HBO's newcomers Boardwalk Empire and Game of Thrones hit it off with both critics and fans, so Emmy voters took notice; And CBS' legal drama The Good Wife wowed people with an emotionally charged second season and represents the broadcast networks among the wealth of cable favorites.
Will Win: Mad Men had a very well-received fourth season (and is pulling out all the stops in its ad campaigns!), so it is very likely to join Hill Street Blues, The West Wing and L.A. Law in the pantheon of Emmy's Best Dramas.
Should Win: I have said this before I believe, so I'll say it again: The Good Wife is the best show on Television currently and deserves every award in can receive.
Dark Horse: HBO wooed Martin Scorsese into directing (and producing!) the buzzworthy pilot of Boardwalk Empire, so they will do all they can to stop Mad Men's winning streak. They already won the Golden Globe earlier this year!
*=L.A. Law also had four Best Drama Series wins, but not consecutively.  Interestingly enough, all three shows (Hill Street Blues, L.A. Law and The West Wing) were broadcast on NBC!

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Kathy Bates, Harry's Law (NBC); Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV); Mireille Enos, The Killing (AMC); Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (NBC); Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife (CBS); Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Last year's winner Kyra Sedgwick beat out presumed front-runner Julianna Margulies, and Margulies again is near the top of every pundits' list to take the award this year; Elisabeth Moss was bumped up to Lead Actress from last year with stirring episodes and storylines; Connie Britton enjoyed her first nod last year and the critics would love to see her rewarded for the show's emotional last season; Oscar-winner Kathy Bates was a shoo-in to get nominated, despite her show garnering mixed reviews from critics and audiences; Character actress Mireille Enos gives a quiet yet resonant performance as a detective investigating a murder on AMC's The Killing; And Mariska Hargitay (who won this award back in 2006!) has become the category's perennial nominee (quite possibly over more deserving candidates, but I digress!).
Will AND Should Win: I've already stated my love for The Good Wife and Julianna Margulies has picked an emotionally packed episode to submit to Emmy voters. Victory shall be hers!
Dark Horse: Elisabeth Moss also is submitting a critically acclaimed (and emotionally powerful!) episode of Mad Men, and she could very well keep Margulies from the winner's podium (just like Kyra Sedgwick did last year!).

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire (HBO); Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV); Michael C. Hall, Dexter (Showtime); John Hamm, Mad Men (AMC); Hugh Laurie, House M.D. (FOX); Timothy Olyphant, Justified (F/X)

Quick Overview: With three-time previous winner Bryan Cranston ineligible this year, four of last years nominees are vying for this prize along with two category newcomers: John Hamm has picked a stellar episode (the same episode Elisabeth Moss picked!) to submit to Emmy voters; Kyle Chandler is banking on his show's emotional series finale to win it for him; Both Hugh Laurie and Michael C. Hall may play unlikable or morally polarizing characters, but they picked jaw-dropping episodes that could gain (or lose!) them support; Timothy Olyphant picked his show's second season finale on his first nomination for his complex role of a Southern lawman; And Golden Globe winner Steve Buscemi has name recognition and the full support of HBO behind him for this extremely tough category.
Will AND Should Win: It is said John Hamm has waited three long years to be rewarded for playing the snake-like ad man Don Draper and with Cranston ineligible, this may be Hamm's time to finally reap some praise.
Dark Horse: Steve Buscemi won both the Golden Globe and the SAG Award for his work as tough gangster Nucky Johnston, and Emmy voters may use those award precursors as signs from above.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (CBS); Michelle Forbes, The Killing (AMC); Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (AMC); Kelly MacDonald, Boardwalk Empire (HBO); Margo Martindale, Justified (F/X); Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife (CBS)
Quick Overview: Pundits have stated that this is the category that stumps them every year! Last year's winner Archie Panjabi was a pleasant surprise and The Good Wife's writers stepped up her game for the show's second season; Her co-star Christine Baranski is always an Emmy favorite no matter what she does; Christina Hendricks is still extremely well-liked among Mad Men's Sterling-Cooper Ad Agency; Character actress Margo Martindale played the villain perfectly on F/X's Justified; Longtime TV actress Michelle Forbes (Star Trek: The Next Generation, True Blood) has finally received an Emmy nod for her work as the murder victim's distraught mother on The Killing; And previous Emmy-winner Kelly MacDonald (for the TV Movie The Girl In the Cafe) is the best reviewed actor/actress on HBO's new hit.
Will Win: Emmys love to reward character actors in truly over-the-top performances (see Jane Lynch or Doris Roberts), so Margo Martindale may ride her character's villainy all the way to an Emmy win.
Should Win: Archie Panjabi may have surprised people last year with her win, but her emotionally understated performance as the law firm's in-house investigator went to new levels this year.
Dark Horse: If Mad Men is indeed going to take the top prize (and quite possibly, Best Actor!), Emmy voters may want to reward Boardwalk Empire with something (besides director!) and so Kelly MacDonald (who was also part of the last Harry Potter movie this summer!) may receive the show's consolation prize.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age (TNT); Josh Charles, The Good Wife (CBS); Alan Cumming, The Good Wife (CBS); Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (HBO); Walton Goggins, Justified (F/X); John Slattery, Mad Men (AMC)

Quick Overview: Two of the men from The Good Wife (Josh Charles and Alan Cumming) submitted great episodes and their characters are indeed central to the show's biggest storylines; John Slattery now has his fourth nomination and has picked an episode that could get him the elusive prize; Andre Braugher was, as far as the critics were concerned, the best part of TNT's now-defunct Men of a Certain Age; And category newcomers (and well-respected character actors!) Peter Dinklage and Walton Goggins are riding their respective shows' critical acclaim to possible Emmy glory.
Will Win: Like his co-star John Hamm, this may very well finally be John Slattery's chance to call himself an Emmy winner.
Should Win: Peter Dinklage gave one of the finest performances on HBO's fantasy hit and his particular episode features one of his most touching and stirring monologues.
Dark Horse: The love for F/X's Justified may just stretch beyond Margo Martindale and onto Walton Goggins' reserved and understated performance (the same style he used on another F/X Emmy favorite: The Shield).

BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Cara Buono, Mad Men (AMC); Joan Cusack, Shameless (Showtime); Loretta Devine, Grey's Anatomy (ABC); Randee Heller, Mad Men (AMC); Mary McDonnell, The Closer (TNT); Julia Stiles, Dexter (Showtime); Alfre Woodard, True Blood (HBO)
Quick Overview: Yes, there are 7 nominees in this category AND all 7 actresses not only guested on one episode of their respective Dramas, they were all recurring roles on each show! But because of Emmy rules, they each picked one episode that best shows their roles during the season: Julia Stiles had a much-hyped and critically dynamic role as serial killer Dexter's assistant (who also was a former victim of the killer he was facing!); Joan Cusack played the agoraphobic love interest to William H. Macy's drunken single father; Mad Men's Cara Buono and Randee Heller were two of the Sterling-Cooper many secretaries that kept the office running; Mary McDonnell played an Internal Affairs Captain investigating the possible misconduct of star Kyra Sedgwick's character; Loretta Devine returned to Seattle Grace as the wife of the Chief of Surgery, this time struggling with early-onset Alzheimer's Disease; And awards favorite Alfre Woodard played the mother of the gay-psychic cook on the fan favorite True Blood.
Will Win: Though this category has usually gone to older actresses in the past (Ann-Margaret, Leslie Caron and Ellen Burstyn are among the more recent winners!), Julia Stiles has the buzz surrounding her (and a Golden Globe nod!) that puts her in the front-runner position in this category.
Should Win: True Blood is a "true" fan favorite and has never received any kind of Emmy love (beyond technical awards!), so Alfre Woodard has the kind of Emmy cache that would give Emmy voters an excuse to give the vampire series a major Emmy.
Dark Horse: Joan Cusack is also an awards favorite (two Oscar nods under her belt!) and her submitted episode is very critically acclaimed, so she could be the name called at the Creative Arts Emmys on Saturday, September 10 (where the Guest Actor/Actress awards are given out!).

BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Beau Bridges, Brothers & Sisters (ABC); Jeremy Davies, Justified (F/X); Bruce Dern, Big Love (HBO); Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife (CBS); Paul McCrane, Harry's Law (NBC); Robert Morse, Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Four awards veterans face-off with two well-liked character actors in this interesting category: Michael J. Fox gave a dynamic performance in the recurring role of a lawyer who keeps Julianna Margulies' character guessing; Veteran actors Bruce Dern, Beau Bridges and Robert Morse each played small recurring roles on their respective shows well enough to put them in this Emmy race; Paul McCrane plays the recurring role of prosecutor to Kathy Bates' outspoken defense attorney; And Jeremy Davies played the unlikable criminal lawman Timothy Olyphant dragged out into the woods in the F/X show's second season finale.
Will AND Should Win: Though I liked him better on the first episode he was on, Michael J. Fox chose the second episode on which he appeared and we found out more about his character's backstory and home life. Emmy voters may very well pick him because Michael J. Fox has proven he can play vulnerable extremely well (just watch an episode of Family Ties!).
Dark Horse: There are actually two potential spoilers! Paul McCrane chose an episode in which his character had a virtual meltdown in court followed by an emotional scene he shared with Oscar-winner Kathy Bates. Sometimes proximity to an awards pro rubs off (that, and the show was created by David E. Kelley who as written more Emmy-winning characters than any other writer!). Also, Jeremy Davies had an staggeringly powerful scene in which his slightly villainous character is getting tortured by star Timothy Olyphant. Emmy voters may want to reward an unlikable character who shows his terrified vulnerability.

TOMORROW!

Part III: The Miniseries & Variety Categories!