IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Emmy Nominations

Today I thought I would share some of my initial reactions and thoughts to yesterday morning's Emmy Nominations for 2012. So let's get to it:

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Boardwalk Empire, Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, Mad Men
Though I'm surprised that CBS' The Good Wife got eked out of the running, it is in no way a shocker that Cable is dominating this category. So PBS will serve as this category's lone Broadcast network vying for the top prize this year.

BEST COMEDY SERIES

The Big Bang Theory, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Girls, Modern Family, 30 Rock, Veep
The biggest shocker here is that NBC's Parks & Recreation, which had one of the funniest seasons of any sitcom this year, was nudged off the list by HBO's triumvirate of Spring hits: returning fave Curb Your Enthusiasm and new critical favorites Girls and Veep. The other three nominees (Modern Family, The Big Bang Theory and 30 Rock) were predicted on every pundits' list.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

Kathy Bates, Harry's Law; Glenn Close, Damages; Claire Danes, Homeland; Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey; Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife; Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Mostly the usual suspects ended up here. Kathy Bates is kind of a surprise as her series was cancelled by NBC back in May (which is never really a good thing in Emmy's eyes!). As far as snubs go, Sons of Anarchy's Katey Sagal and Revenge's Madeleine Stowe had a lot of fan love behind them, but Emmys tend to ignore what the fans want. As expected, this race will end up as a showdown between Golden Globe winner Claire Danes and last year's Emmy champ Julianna Margulies.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey; Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire; Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad; Michael C. Hall, Dexter; John Hamm, Mad Men; Damian Lewis, Homeland
It looks like Hugh Laurie has been replaced by Hugh Bonneville. Bonneville was definitely in the running for his steely reserved role on PBS' lauded series. And Laurie was a long shot for his swan song season of the FOX medical drama. As for the other nominees, they were pretty much as predicted. But why don't we save everyone the trouble and give Bryan Cranston his fourth Emmy Award now?

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl; Lena Dunham, Girls; Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie; Tina Fey, 30 Rock; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep; Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly; Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation
Seven nominees!?!?! And all seven ladies extremely deserving on their respective shows. Poehler, Louis-Dreyfus and Fey were pretty much locks for nominations. Deschanel and Dunham have their respective networks campaigning vigorously for them. And previous winners Falco and McCarthy want to ensure their wins were not flukes. In the snub list (though many of them shouldn't be surprised!) include: Laura Dern, Laura Linney, Martha Plimpton, Lea Michele, Mary Louise Parker, Kat Dennings, Kaley Cuoco and Felicity Huffman.

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock; Don Cheadle, House of Lies; Louis C.K., Louie; Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men; Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm; Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

No surprise that Baldwin, David and Parsons got nominated. As for Louis C.K., though his series got snubbed in the Comedy Series category, he was a favorite for a nod this year (having been nominated last year!). Though House of Lies was not beloved by the critics, Cheadle's performance was. The big shocker here is that Jon Cryer, now submitting himself in the Lead Actor category, got a nod despite his once #1 show's sagging ratings (seriously, Emmy voters still watch Two and a Half Men?!?!).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife; Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey; Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad; Christina Hendricks, Mad Men; Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife; Dame Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
This is the Dame's category! Maggie Smith, who won Supporting Actress in a Miniseries last year for the show's first season, is the presumed frontrunner in this category. Previous winner Archie Panjabi and previous nominees Christine Baranski and Christina Hendricks were definite locks for a nod each. The two surprises in this category are Smith's co-star Joanne Froggatt (for her strong portrayal of the head housemaid) and Breaking Bad's Anna Gunn, who critics have loved for years but has never received Emmy love until now. Unfortunately, that left out the likes of Boardwalk Empire's phenomenal Kelly MacDonald and Smash's Anjelica Huston for nominations that in any other year they might have received.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA

Jim Carter, Downton Abbey; Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey; Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones; Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad; Jared Harris, Mad Men; Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
No shocker that previous winners Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage scored nods for their work again. And Giancarlo Esposito got some of the best reviews of any actor on TV last year for Breaking Bad's fourth season, so he was a lock. The surprises here are for Jared Harris' nod for his shocking season on Mad Men (in place of his usually more loved co-star John Slattery!) and Downton Abbey's double nods for British character actors Jim Carter and Brendan Coyle. It seems like Breaking Bad and Downton Abbey are the Dramas that will give Mad Men a run for their money this year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory; Julie Bowen, Modern Family; Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives; Sofia Vergara, Modern Family; Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie; Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
With Jane Lynch, Betty White and Jane Krakowski falling off the radar in this category, slots became wide open this year. Kathryn Joosten's death in May ensured her the "venerable veteran" spot in this category over the likes of White and Cloris Leachman. But the greatest surprises were the nods for critical favorites Mayim Bialik and Merritt Wever (of The Big Bang Theory and Nurse Jackie, respectively). They have gotten praise from critics for the past few years but hadn't received well-deserved Emmy nods until now. Modern Family's Sofia Vergara and Julie Bowen were both definite nods this year (the latter having won this award last year). And Kristen Wiig's final year on SNL was full of laughs and praise for her work, so she was a lock as well.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY

Ty Burrell, Modern Family; Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family; Max Greenfield, New Girl; Bill Hader,

Saturday Night Live; Ed O'Neill, Modern Family; Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Should one show dominate an entire category? While the men of Modern Family are very deserving, with all four of them submitted in this category (and the seemingly enduring love Emmy seems to have for the show) means that equally deserving men from other shows get snubbed (see Neil Patrick Harris, Nick Offerman, Danny Pudi, Chris Colfer, Simon Helberg or many many more!). The other two spots however went to surprising (yet welcomed) choices. New Girl's Max Greenfield has made his character a popular favorite with critics and Bill Hader has become an integral member of the SNL cast. Maybe one of these two could defeat the Modern Family juggernaut (but that's a very unlikely maybe!).


Tonight's post is dedicated to the Victims of the shooting in Aurora, Colorado and their families. Let us keep them in our thoughts as we remember that all they wanted to do was enjoy a much-anticipated movie and were subjected to a horrific tragedy. Do not let the act of one madman spoil the things we sometimes take for granted in this world including enjoying the simple pleasures of life (like a Film or a TV Show).

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Oscar Predictions - Part II

With Part I of my Oscar predictions out of the way, it is time to finish up with the Writing, Directing and, of course, the most important award of them all: Best Picture.  Let me give you a reminder of what the percentages mean when I talk about each nominee:

• under 5% - very very slim chance, just count it/him/her lucky to be nominated
• between 5 and 20% - chances slightly better, yet no real chance
• between 20 and 30% - stronger chances, could pull off an upset
• between 30 and 50% - really good chances, most likely the front-runner
• over 50% - clear the mantle, your Oscar is ready for you

Now, on with the show, so to speak:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

And the nominees are: 

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants; John Logan, Hugo; George Clooney, Grant Heslov & Beau Willimon, The Ides of March; Steven Zaillian & Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball; Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Prediction: The Descendants - 42%

The rest: Moneyball - 36%; Hugo - 13%; Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy - 6%; The Ides of March - 3%

Explanation: With yesterday's Writer's Guild Awards win, Alexander Payne's emotional dramedy The Descendants has positioned itself as the major front-runner in this category.  Its stiffest competition comes in the form of two of the category's previous winners and their collaboration which garnered them the Critics Choice Award winner for Adapted Screenplay.  Aaron Sorkin's (whose work on last year's The Social Network won him every award possible) and Steven Zaillian (who won almost 20 years ago for his adaptation of Schindler's List) collaborated on the audience favorite Brad Pitt-lead film about the Oakland Athletics, Moneyball.  While The Descendants has the love of the Writer's Guild, remember that the WGA winner doesn't always find themselves as the Oscar-winner (see Up In the Air vs. Precious in 2010).  Tony-winning writer John Logan has a small chance for his adaptation of Hugo thanks to the film's number of nominations, but the film has been praised as more Martin Scorsese's success than that of its writer.  The much-praised adaptation of John Le Carre's Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy seems more like a lovable longshot and George Clooney's The Ides of March has had such a poor showing in nominations (much to many critics' chagrin) that it really is lucky to be in the mix at all.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

And the nominees are: 

Michel Hazanavicus, The Artist; Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids; J.C. Chandor, Margin Call; Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris; Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Prediction: Midnight In Paris - 45%

The rest: The Artist - 35%; Bridesmaids - 15%; A Separation - 3%; Margin Call - 2%

Explanation: This is Woody Allen's 15th Original Screenplay nomination (he has won this award twice for Annie Hall and Hannah and Her Sisters in 1978 and 1987, respectively).  He won the Writer's Guild Award yesterday as well as the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards.  In this category, he is the film titan to beat.  That is why I cannot rule out the possibility of a potential sweep of major categories from Best Picture front-runner The Artist.  If the Academy have truly taken Michel Hazanavicius' silent wonder into their hearts, the love may trickle into the Best Screenplay category (just like Best Picture winners The Hurt Locker and  The King's Speech did in the previous years).  Saturday Night Live star Kristen Wiig and fellow Grounding Annie Mumolo co-wrote the Summer comedy blockbuster Bridesmaids and their nomination has pleased many people (critics and audiences alike!).  However, raunchy comedies rarely get noticed by the Academy, so in this case the nomination is a win.  Foreign Film front-runner A Separation has a slightly (really slightly!) better chance than the really independent (yet really all-star!) Margin Call.

BEST DIRECTOR

And the nominees are: 

Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris; Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life; Alexander Payne, The Descendants; Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius - 50%

The rest: Martin Scorsese - 23%; Alexander Payne - 13%; Woody Allen - 11%; Terrence Malick - 3%

Explanation: Last year when I predicted that David Fincher would defeat Tom Hooper in this category, the Director's Guild had not handed down their opinion yet.  Thanks to the DGA Awards being earlier this Oscar Season, I can say with a little more confidence that The Artist's Michel Hazanavicius will be victorious in this category come Oscar night.  It is extremely rare that the Director's Guild winner is not the Oscar's Best Director (but it has happened!).  So if Hazanavicius is found, by some chance, not to be in the winner's circle that night, who will be?  The most likely candidate would be Hollywood's favorite auteur director Martin Scorsese.  Scorsese spent years being ignored by the Academy for his gritty and graphic violent movies like Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, GoodFellas and Gangs of New York.  In 2007, his long streak of losses ended with his win for the just-as-gritty The Departed.  Since then, many have felt that one Best Director win is not enough for the legendary filmmaker.  His out-of-the-box choice of directing the fantasy epic Hugo was deemed the Best Film by both the American Film Institute and the National Board of Review.  Also Hugo has the most Oscar nominations, which is definitely in Marty's favor.  As for the others, both Alexander Payne and Woody Allen are front-runners in the Screenplay categories so that is where they are likely to shine.  And Terrence Malick, though he won early awards (like Cannes!), his Tree of Life lost momentum going into the heavier part of Oscar Season (like the Golden Globes or the DGAs).  In fact, he wasn't even recognized by the Guild this year (David Fincher was nominated there along with the other four Oscar nominees for his stylish remake of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo).

BEST PICTURE

And the nominees are: 

The Artist; The Descendants; Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; The Help; Hugo; Midnight In Paris; Moneyball; The Tree of Life; War Horse

Prediction: The Artist - 35%

The rest: Hugo and The Descendants -15% each; The Help, Moneyball and Midnight In Paris - 10% each; War Horse - 3%; The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - 1% each

Explanation: With 9 films in the mix this year, the distribution of odds was slightly tougher.  That's why it was easier to bundle films together that had similar chances.  It pretty clear on most of the sites that follow the Awards that The Artist is the definite front-runner for the top prize (I have stated so at least 3 or 4 times on this blog alone!).  There are really only two films in the category that could challenge The Artist's dominance.  As I said above, Hugo won top prizes from the American Film Institute and the National Board of Review as well as receiving the most Oscar nominations for any film this year (with 11 nods to the The Artist's 10).  However, getting the most nominations does not mean a Best Picture win (see Avatar, Benjamin Button, There Will Be Blood and even Dreamgirls for proof!).  The Descendants won the Golden Globe (for Best Picture -Drama), the L.A. Film Critics prize and the Golden Satellite (again for Best Picture - Drama).  However, in two of those scenarios, The Descendants was not competing against The Artist.  Both The Help and Moneyball may be audience favorites and Midnight In Paris may have that Woody Allen pedigree behind it, but their equal chances dwindle with each passing moment.  And when it comes to pedigree (unintended Horse pun!), no one has more than Steven Spielberg.  However with no Best Director nod for the Hollywood heavyweight, his poignant and sentimental War Horse loses more and more steam.  Both The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close were early favorites in the season, yet little showing among the Guilds and other awards puts them on the "in your dreams" list.  All of this aside, The Artist has the most momentum and the most praise.  Let's see the first silent film to win Best Picture since Wings back in 1928 (the first year of the Oscars!).

As for all of the other categories, expect Hugo and The Artist to battle it out in most of the technical categories (i.e. Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Art Direction, etc.).  In Animated Film, the Spring hit Rango would be the one to bet on as the winner there.  And expect the Muppets to be victorious in the (albeit strange!) race for Best Song.  With all this said, I look forward to Sunday, February 26 when the Oscars will be handed out.  And after last year's lackluster ceremony, I'm even looking forward to a spirited televised event on ABC thanks to the choice of host: the ever-popular Billy Crystal.  Good luck to all the Nominees and Happy Oscar watching!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Oscar Predictions - Part I

With the Oscars less than 10 days away (Sunday, February 26 on ABC), it is time for me to start sharing with all of you my predictions for who shall win on Awards night.  Today, I will cover the four acting awards (as those tend to be the only awards people care about!).  On Monday, I will discuss the writing, directing and Best Picture awards.  If I'm in the mood, I may even add some predictions for the other categories (usually referred to as "technical categories").  Before I start, let me give you a quick breakdown of what the percentage odds mean for each nominated person/film:

• under 5% - very very slim chance, just count it/him/her lucky to be nominated
• between 5 and 20% - chances slightly better, yet no real chance
• between 20 and 30% - stronger chances, could pull off an upset
• between 30 and 50% - really good chances, most likely the front-runner
• over 50% - clear the mantle, your Oscar is ready for you

With that out of the way, let's talk about the Acting categories!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

And the nominees are: 

Berenice Bejo, The Artist; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Octavia Spencer, The Help

Prediction: Octavia Spencer - 60%

The rest: Berenice Bejo - 25%; Melissa McCarthy, Janet McTeer and Jessica Chastain - 5% each

Explanation: Spencer has won most of the Oscar precursor awards for her scene-stealing performance in the audience favored The Help.  Bejo could be a spoiler if Best Picture front-runner The Artist pulls off a sweep.  McCarthy is one of the few nominees in Oscar history for a comedic performance (meaning the nomination is the win!).  Tony-winner McTeer is an awards favorite, but hasn't been hitting the Oscar campaign like her co-star Glenn Close.  And Chastain's nomination is the benefit of roles in other critically notable films this year (see The Debt, Take Shelter, Coriolanus and Best Picture nominee The Tree of Life) and an over-the-top performance in a strong ensemble film.  But by all accounts, Spencer is the one to watch in The Help's brilliant ensemble (hence her wins at the Golden Globes, SAGs, BAFTAs and Critics Choice Awards!).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

And the nominees are: 

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn; Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Nick Nolte, Warrior; Christopher Plummer, Beginners; Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Prediction: Christopher Plummer - 72%

The rest: Kenneth Branagh and Max Von Sydow - 9% each; Jonah Hill - 6%; Nick Nolte - 4%

Explanation: Plummer is an extremely well-respected character actor amongst Hollywood's elite (and New York and London's for that matter!).  It was mind-boggling to many pundits a few years ago that after several years in many noteworthy films that his Best Supporting Actor nod for The Last Station was his first.  Now, he has a touching and funny role in an independent critical hit and has won literally every Oscar precursor award from the New York and L.A. Film Critics to the Golden Globe and SAG Awards.  If there is a lock for Oscar night, it is Plummer's win in this category.  As for the others, Branagh and Von Sydow each have a shot as their films are notable (and they have the veteran status in their corner as well!).  Hill is in the most notable film in the bunch.  But in a field full of veterans, the fact that he is an Oscar nominee is a reward.  And Nolte garnered his third nomination for his critically acclaimed performance in a so-so film that has received no other nominations.

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

And the nominees are: 

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs; Viola Davis, The Help; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Prediction: Viola Davis - 33%

The rest: Meryl Streep - 30%; Michelle Williams - 22%; Glenn Close - 12%; Rooney Mara - 3%

Explanation: This is probably the closest race of the high-profile categories.  Viola Davis won the SAG and Critics Choice Awards and her win (coupled with co-star Spencer's presumed win) would be a historic photo-op and one for the record books.  However, acting's unofficial "Grand Dame" Meryl Streep won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the National Society of Film Critics Awards.  This is her 17th nomination in 35 years in the film business and she has not won an Oscar since 1983 (when she won her second one for her brilliant performance in Sophie's Choice).  On the other hand, most of Streep's nominations (with a few exceptions) are for films in which she is the primary highlight and the films themselves are not on anyone's Greatest lists (meaning they range from "So-So" to "Above Average" and if she wasn't in them, they'd be "Crap").  And, according to most critics, The Iron Lady falls under that category.  If the Academy voters have trouble choosing between the two dramatic heavyweights, a split still is possible and Golden Globe winner Michelle Williams is the likely benefactor of such a possibility.  Meanwhile, Glenn Close (who hasn't been nominated since 1988's Dangerous Liaisons!) has been hitting the Awards campaign circuit, but with no precursor wins (losing to either Streep or Davis) an Oscar is unlikely.  And newcomer Rooney Mara is the perfect example of "lucky to be nominated."

BEST LEADING ACTOR

And the nominees are: 

Demian Bichir, A Better Life; George Clooney, The Descendants; Jean Dujardin, The Artist; Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Prediction: Jean Dujardin - 40%

The rest: George Clooney - 35%; Brad Pitt - 20%; Gary Oldman - 3%; Demian Bichir - 2%

Explanation: No one was surprised when Jean Dujardin won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy, but many were surprised when he defeated George Clooney and Brad Pitt at both the SAGs and the BAFTAs.  With those wins, Dujardin upped his odds and cemented the strong possibility of The Artist doing what The King's Speech did last year (win Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and Actor!).  However, George Clooney is a Hollywood heavyweight and his performance in The Descendants is widely acclaimed (winning the Golden Globe for Drama and a several other Critcs Awards).  Clooney's pal Brad Pitt, another Hollywood heavyweight, has yet to win an Oscar and he gives the type of performance in Moneyball that would win in any other year.  Sympathy could help him pull off a spoiler.  Had Gary Oldman won the BAFTA, his chances would be slightly higher.  And SAG nominee Demian Bichir pulled off a surprise getting the fifth slot in this race (meaning slim is the politest word for his chances!).

So there you have it, my predictions for the Acting Awards at this year's Oscars.  On Monday, I will talk the top prize (plus some others!).  Stay Tuned!!!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Oscar Nominations - First Response

This past Tuesday morning, the 2012 Oscar nominations were announced.  And I thought I would just share with you some of my initial reactions.  There were things I was proud of and things I liked, but there were also things I really didn't care for or enjoy.  Then there were the things that made my jaw hit the floor (and there were more than I thought there would be!).  So let me give you a rundown of my first thoughts when I saw this year's Oscar nominations.

THE 5 THINGS I LIKED:
After years of brilliant work (often playing villains!), Gary Oldman finally has an Oscar nomination under his belt for his critically lauded, steely performance in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. And with love for the film at the BAFTAs, Oldman could quite possibly be a potential spoiler for frontrunner George Clooney.

Tony-winner Viola Davis and character actress Octavia Spencer got nods for their dynamic performances in the audience favorite The Help.  They are both favorites in their respective categories, so we could possibly have two African-American women winning the Actress and Supporting Actress Oscars this year.

This year's Supporting Actor race is filled with veterans (save for Jonah Hill, see below!).  Kenneth Branagh, who has channeled Laurence Olivier several times before My Week With Marilyn, is nominated for the first time since his nod for Henry V in 1988.  Nick Nolte is enjoying his third Oscar nomination (his first in Supporting!).  Christopher Plummer, one of the film business' best character actors, is the category's clear frontrunner.  And Max Von Sydow is nominated for not even saying a word (he plays a mute in Stephen Daldry's Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close).

As much as veterans are always welcome (see Meryl Streep!), its nice to see a few newcomers in the mix, especially: Rooney Mara (for her astonishing work in David Fincher's The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), Emmy-winner Melissa McCarthy (getting recognized for her scene-stealing performance in Bridesmaids) and The Artist co-stars Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo.

Moneyball was one of my favorite films of the year (not just because I'm from the Bay Area!).  I was very pleased to see it in the Best Picture category as well as nods for Brad Pitt's brilliant performance and the clever screenplay by Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian (two of my favorite screenwriters these days!).

THE 3 THINGS I DISLIKED:
Two of the best films of the year got shut out of the Best Picture category: David Fincher's stylish The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and the powerful finale to the Harry Potter film franchise (more on that below!).

Noteworthy films like The Help and War Horse did get Best Picture nods (and a few other nominations in various categories), but got ignored in ones they really deserved (i.e. Screenplay or Directing!).

When you have to cut it off at 5, several actors with worthy performances got ignored this year.  Among the names that come to mind are: Leonardo DiCaprio, Tilda Swinton, Kirsten Dunst, Michael Fassbender, Ryan Gosling, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Joseph-Gordon Levitt, Emma Stone, Marion Cotillard and Alan Rickman. I'm sure there are more, but I don't want to be here all day!

THE 10 "WHAT-IN-THE-HELL-IS-THE-ACADEMY-THINKING?!?!" THOUGHTS:
Only 9 Best Picture nominees, really?!? They couldn't find one more film they liked well enough to make it an even 10 (especially when films like The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Bridesmaids, The Ides of March, Drive, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II got ignored!)?

Only 2 Best Song nominees?!?! The Academy's Music Department also revamped their voting system and this is their result!?! I'm definitely rooting for the Muppet song (written by Flight of the Conchords' Brett McKenzie), but come on people!!!

While I'm not disputing the five directors who made it into the Best Director category, where is David Fincher? Or Steven Spielberg? Or Bennett Miller? They expanded Best Picture, but Best Director can't get a few more names?

Steven Spielberg can't even get into the Animated category! His The Adventures of Tin-Tin, which won both the Golden Globe and the Producers' Guild Award for Best Animated Feature got shut out of the Oscar's Animated category.

Speaking of the Animated category, both Tin-Tin and Rio garnered nods from the Music Department (Tin-Tin for John Williams' score and Rio for its big musical production number) but neither could get in the Animated biggie.

The most successful movie franchise ended its run this year with a box office bang, but the Academy cannot take the time to recognize the cultural influence the Harry Potter series has had in the last decade.

With The Artist being the definite favorite in the Best Picture race, it may become the first silent Best Picture winner since Wings in 1927 (the very first Best Picture winner!).  This is just more of a surprising thought rather than a "WTF" thought.

Another surprising thought: Michelle Williams has an Oscar nomination for playing the iconic Marilyn Monroe, someone who never got an Oscar nomination herself (be it for Bus Stop or Some Like It Hot or The Seven Year Itch).

One more surprising thought: Meryl Streep has now garnered 17 nominations in 33 years. That almost works out to a nomination every 2 years!

And finally...
Jonah Hill, star of Superbad and Get Him to the Greek, is now an Academy Award Nominee. 'Nuff said.

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: Oscar Season 2012

Pictured: Kristen Wiig in Bridesmaids; Rooney Mara and Yorick van Wageningen in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; George Clooney, Shailene Woodley, Amara Miller and Nick Krause in The Descendants; Daniel Radcliffe and Ralph Fiennes in Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II

With the Golden Globe Awards this Sunday, the Oscar Season is pretty much in full swing.  And pundits all over Hollywood are scrambling to predict which 5-10 films will be nominated for the top prize at this year's Academy Awards.  Yes, notice I said "5-10 films."  That is because this year the Motion Picture Academy is shaking things up a bit from previous years.  Two years ago, they expanded the Best Picture category from 5 nominees to 10.  But because last year's 10 films seemed (at least to the Academy) to be predicted by every Hollywood pundit from Hawaii to Maine, they felt that they would change the way the voting is done on the nominees for Best Picture.  It is very complicated to explain (and there are breakdowns on the new system all over the web!) but basically: the eligible films will go through several rounds of voting until a handful of films receive a certain percentage of votes.  The Academy has stated there will be a total of no less than 5 nominees and no more than 10 nominees (meaning there could be 7 or 8 nominees for Best Picture).  Because of this new system and this unpredictable possibility of slots, critics are expanding their "Short Lists" of what could be nominated this year.  In this week's article, I am going to discuss the possible nominees for the top 4 Awards this year (Picture, Actor, Actress & Director).

Let's start with:
BEST PICTURE
There are two major front-runners in this category: the moving George Clooney comedy-drama The Descendants and the critical favored French-made silent film The Artist.  Both films have topped every "Best of" list for 2011 and The Artist just yesterday won the Critics Choice Award for Best Picture (The Descendants has won the top prize from both the American Film Institute and the L.A. Film Critics).  Their slots on the list are almost more than assured.  Three other films have been in every discussion when it comes to Best Picture: the extremely popular comedy-drama The Help, the Brad Pitt lead film about the Oakland Athletics Moneyball and Steven Spielberg's emotional World War I film War Horse.  The Help surprised many by being one of the better box office draws of the end of the Summer and Moneyball is receiving praise left and right in particular for Brad Pitt's dynamic performance and the verbose screenplay by previous Oscar-winners Steven Zaillian (Schindler's List) and Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network).  As for War Horse, the film is being hailed as "Spielberg magic" and is getting positive comparisons to his previous Oscar faves Saving Private Ryan and Schindler's List.  But we should not forget the dark horses that this category has seen over the past 2 months: Martin Scorsese's charming fantasy Hugo, David Fincher's dark and stylistic vision of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and Woody Allen's artistic and imaginative Midnight In Paris.  All three have made their way in to various pre-Oscar Awards (with Hugo winning the top honors from the National Board of Review and all three esteemed directors knocking even Steven Spielberg out of contention with the Director's Guild Awards).  And when it comes to dark horses, both Terrence Malick's stream of consciousness film The Tree of Life and Stephen Daldry's 9/11-related drama Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close both won the earliest of the pre-Oscar prizes (with Tree of Life winning at the Cannes Film Festival and Extremely Loud winning praise from the Broadcast Critics Association).  Though their respective Oscar buzz has faltered, they still are not out of the running.  And let's not forget the bigger box office hits.  Recent years, people have noted that the bigger box office winners get ignored come Oscar time.  That changed when the third Lord of the Rings movie won in 2004.  Now, films like the hit comedy Bridesmaids and 2011's ultimate box office champ Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II have stronger chances than they would have had say ten years ago.  Lower on most lists are some other critical favorites like the George Clooney-directed political drama The Ides of March, the stylish adaptation of John le Carre's novel Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and Clint Eastwood's biopic of controversial FBI director J. Edgar Hoover simply titled J. Edgar.  Ultimately, if 10 films are indeed to be nominated, the Best Picture nominees will look something like this:

• The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Moneyball, War Horse, Hugo, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Midnight In Paris, Bridesmaids and The Tree of Life
• With these possible spoilers (replacing any of the ones after Hugo!): Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II, The Ides of March, J. Edgar and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Spoilers can happen people!  Remember when The Blind Side was nominated two years ago?  Nobody saw that one coming!

Speaking of The Blind Side, let's move on to:
BEST ACTRESS
Like Best Picture, this category has two very clear and very strong front-runners.  Viola Davis wowed critics and audiences alike with her moving performance in The Help (and her recent win at last night's Critics Choice Awards doesn't hurt either!).  Her biggest competitor is her Doubt co-star and quite possibly the greatest actress of the last 30 years, Ms. Meryl Streep.  This year, Streep conquered the polarizing role of Great Britain's former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady and critics everywhere are saying this is the performance to win Streep a potential third Oscar (she has been nominated 16 times over 32 years, winning twice back in 1980 and 1983!).  The third lady to mention with this category is Michelle Williams.  The late Heath Ledger's former wife has certainly been on the Oscar radar with her performances in films like Brokeback Mountain and 2010's critical favorite Blue Valentine.  This year, her performance in backstage showbiz flick My Week With Marilyn (in which Williams tackles the role of Marilyn Monroe!) is gaining universal praise and she is assured a win this Sunday at the Golden Globes for Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy.  Some have even stated that should voters split between the choice of Viola Davis and Meryl Streep, that Williams would be the potential victor.  And let us not forget Glenn Close.  The multiple Tony and Emmy-winner has not been nominated for an Oscar since 1989 (Dangerous Liaisons, her fifth nomination by then!), but her performance in the indie film Albert Nobbs has generated buzz and nominations from both the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild.  The fifth slot would most likely go to Oscar-winner Tilda Swinton (who won a few years back for her icy performance in Michael Clayton).  Swinton has left critics awestruck with her performance as the mother of a child who is a possible sociopath in We Need to Talk About Kevin.  But since its the Oscars, there's always a chance of a surprise nominee.  Three other actresses on the Awards radar are Oscar-winner Charlize Theron for her role in Diablo Cody's darkly sardonic Young Adult, Kirsten Dunst won at both the Cannes Film Festival and National Society of Film Critics for Lars Von Trier's metaphorical Melancholia and Rooney Mara garnered a Golden Globe nod for her performance in David Fincher's stylish remake of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.  Here is what Best Actress most likely will look like:

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs; Viola Davis, The Help; Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin; Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
• With Charlize Theron, Kirsten Dunst or Rooney Mara as potential surprises (likely knocking out Ms. Close or Ms. Swinton).

With the ladies out of the way, let's go to:
BEST ACTOR
With The Descendants and The Artist being the front-runners in the Best Picture category, their respective male leads (George Clooney and Jean Dujardin) certainly have made their way to the top of the list of Best Actor candidates.  Both actors are poised to win Golden Globes on Sunday night: Clooney for Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama and Dujardin for Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy.  And don't forget the praise that Brad Pitt has received for his dynamic portrayal of Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane in Moneyball.  And when it comes to playing real-life figures, Leonardo DiCaprio earned praise and Oscar buzz for his performance as J. Edgar Hoover in Clint Eastwood's J. Edgar.  With four slots taken now, that last slot becomes extremely competitive.  The likeliest candidate (and my personal favorite!) is Gary Oldman.  Oscar loves to bestow praise on veteran actors who have been around for years and never fully got recognition.  In Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy, Oldman has received some of the best reviews of his long career and when his name was NOT among the nominees for both the Golden Globes or the Screen Actors' Guild Awards, the cry of "Foul!" was loud enough to be heard around the world.  Oscar voters may want to rectify the mistake that the HFPA and the SAG have made.  But Oldman's major competitors for that final spot are two actors who have had a wealth of good film performances this year.  Ryan Gosling made three critically notable films this year (The Ides of March, Drive and Crazy, Stupid Love) and he could be nominated for any one of them.  Inglorious Basterds co-star Michael Fassbender also made multiple films this year (he was Magneto in the prequel X-Men: First Class and starred in three independent films Jane Eyre, A Dangerous Method and the controversial Shame).  While he got a Golden Globe nod for Shame, his performance in the other two independent flicks have not gone unnoticed.  The one problem with multiple film entries for an actor or actress come Oscar time is that if each film earns the actor praise, voters might split between which film the actor should receive a nod for that year.  The final competitor who could likely steal the final nod is Owen Wilson.  In Woody Allen's well-received Midnight In Paris, Wilson charmed audiences and critics alike well enough to garner a Golden Globe nomination and is considered to have at least a quarter of a chance against the power of the praise poured onto Jean Dujardin's performance in The Artist.  With all that said, this is what I think Best Actor will look like:

• George Clooney, The Descendants; Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar; Jean Dujardin, The Artist; Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Brad Pitt, Moneyball
• With Gosling, Fassbender (for any one of their films!) and Wilson as potential surprises (unfortunately acing out Mr. Oldman from getting his first Oscar nod!).

And last but certainly not least, we move on to:
BEST DIRECTOR
Most often, Best Director tends to match the Best Picture nominees.  But that changed with the Best Picture category being expanded.  And with this year's unpredictable number of Best Picture nominees, Best Director still is very difficult to match.  Just as their films are front-runners for the top prize, both Alexander Payne (The Descendants) and Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) are on the top of the Best Director list.  As I said above, Martin Scorsese (Hugo), Woody Allen (Midnight In Paris) and David Fincher (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo) joined Payne and Hazanavicius as nominees for the Directors' Guild Award.  And George Clooney (for his political drama The Ides of March) joined all those names (sans Fincher) as the nominees for this Sunday's Golden Globes Best Director prize.  As a fan of his for most of my life, I never ever underestimate the Academy's love for Steven Spielberg and his War Horse could definitely garner him his sixth Oscar nod for Best Director.  While both Moneyball and The Help have received tons of critical praise, their respective directors (Bennett Miller and Tate Taylor) have been mostly afterthoughts when it comes to discussing this category.  And finally both Stephen Daldry and Terrence Malick tend to get notice come Oscar time whenever they make films, but their respective movies (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and The Tree of Life) have faltered on their road to the Oscar nominations.  Best Director will most likely look something like this:

• Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris; David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Alexander Payne, The Descendants; Martin Scorsese, Hugo; Steven Spielberg, War Horse
• I realize I have listed 6 names here, but I just cannot count out Spielberg's chances just yet!  He is for sure the top potential "surprise."
• The other potential surprises could be either Mr. Daldry, Mr. Malick or Mr. Clooney.

I'm not going to discuss the potential Supporting nominees or the potential Writing nominees, since those categories will most likely match the Golden Globe nominees or those respective Guild Awards (both Actors and Writers!).  Once the nominees have been announced (on Tuesday, January 24th), I will begin work on researching my predictions.  Who will win the top prizes this year?  We shall see!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: Happy New Year!

With the New Year soon approaching, I wanted to share a poem I wrote a few years ago that sums up how I feel at the end of every year.  I'm not going to go on and on telling you what the poem is about, so I'm just going to let you read it.

A HAPPY NEW YEAR!

IN REVIEW

Happy New Year!

Let old acquaintance be forgot

In fact, let it vanish from the minds

As we make our resolutions…

And then break our resolutions,

We celebrate the men with dreams,

And inaugurate the elected (not selected),

After Phil sees a shadow,

Past leaders become a sales weekend,

Hearts become candies and cards,

We kiss the irish (and pinch the non-irish),

Hunt for the eggs and pay the government,

Embrace our mothers and remember the fallen,

Finish school and re-gift our fathers,

Watch the fireworks and complete the vacation,

Celebrate labor (by not laboring) and go back to school,

Become patriots and trick for the treat,

Elect the leaders and remember more soldiers,

Consume the turkey and purchase the gifts,

(Light the menorah, if applicable)

Decorate the tree and visit family,

Then think back on the past year,

Then drink the champagne,

Then kiss at the stroke of 12,

Then make our resolutions and…

Happy New Year!

Let old acquaintance be forgot

And so on…And so on…And so on…

HAVE A

HAPPY NEW YEAR

EVERYONE!!!

10 FAVORITES (48) - 2011: A Year In Review

Well everyone, Christmastime is upon us and we are almost at the end of 2011.  But what were the most important events that occurred in our culture over the last year?  This week's 10 FAVORITES is a special 2011 review, picking the 10 moments that shaped the entertainment and pop culture world over the last 364 days (give or take a few!).

2011: A YEAR IN REVIEW

EASTERN CHANGES

The Deaths of Bin-Laden, Gaddafi, Kim Jong-Il and the Resignation of Mubarak

The Middle Eastern region was given quite an uproar over the last year.  First, Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak resigned in disgrace after over two weeks of riots and demonstrations against his questionable leadership.  Then, after years of hunting him down, President Barack Obama announced at the end of May that justice has been served as a US Seal team had found and assassinated Al-Qaeda terrorist leader Osama Bin-Laden.  After a long summer, Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi was killed by rebels after NATO took down his forces.  And if all that wasn't enough, recently from the Far East, North Korea revealed that their "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-Il had passed away (from unknown causes!).  Could it be that these once troubled nations will live in peace with the rest of the world?  Or are they in a deeper abyss of despair than they once were?  Only time shall tell.

WINNING!

Charlie Sheen's Meltdown

Talk about a method to leave a hit network show!  Former Two and a Half Men star Charlie Sheen seemed to be on a downward spiral since his very public arrest last year at Christmastime.  But halfway through his firing from the CBS ratings bonanza, he informed us all that he is not like us.  No, he has "tiger-blood" and "adonis DNA," so you cannot apply the same rules to him as you do us mere mortals.  By all accounts (according to Sheeen!), he is clearly "Winning!"  And with those statements, the Charlie Sheen meltdown was off and running.  He, of course, tried to use it to his advantage by launching a critically panned lecture tour and signing on for a new "sitcom" with a cable network (where apparently he doesn't have the "creative" restraints that a broadcast network has!).  If this is "Winning!" Mr. Sheen, then, by all means, have at it.

A ROYAL WEDDING

William and Kate Make It Official

30 years after his parents had their lavish and hard-to-compete-with Royal wedding, Prince William married his longtime girlfriend Kate Middleton.  With this marriage, they are now officially referred to as the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge.  The wedding was watched in almost every country by millions upon millions, and in this 24/7 Internet age the wedding was watched over and over again.  Now, almost 8 months after the wedding, the rumors are flying (marriage in trouble, Kate's baby bump, etc.).  But despite all this, the couple seem happy in their new life together.  Let us hope they can weather the storm that is the media hype and the "Royal fishbowl" together in health and happiness.

GOODBYE AND A-HA!

Oprah's Farewell

After 25 years of laughs, tears, screams, celebrities, favorite things and A-ha moments, talk show queen Oprah Winfrey aired the final episode of her show at the end of May.  There was a lot of build up to that final hour.  The two days before were devoted to a "Surprise Spectacular" that was held for Ms. Winfrey at Chicago's United Center where every celebrity from Tom Hanks to Will Smith to Madonna to Beyonce to Aretha Franklin paid homage to the woman that has shaped our culture for the last quarter of a century.  On the final day, there was just a chair and Ms. Winfrey speaking to her audience (both in studio and not) about what this journey has meant to her.  She did not say "Goodbye," but she did say "Until we meet again."  And, of course, with her new network OWN, we shall be seeing her again.  But thanks to her daily talk show, our culture was never the same.

THE MAGIC ENDS

Harry Potter Casts His Final Spell

7 books plus 8 movies equals a pop culture phenomenon.  J. K. Rowling's sprawling fantasy series about the boy wizard with a lightning scar has been read by billions.  Her last book, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, was wisely turned into two movies by Warner Brothers (the company that had been producing the other 6 films!).  Part I premiered in November of last year and Part II became one of the most eagerly anticipated films of the last decade.  On July 15, the world watched as the cast (which has been mostly the same since the first film!) played their parts for the eighth and final time.  The movie was a box office smash making almost $400 million in the U.S. and triple that worldwide (cementing the Harry Potter film series as the highest grossing film franchise of all-time!).  The reviews for the film were among the best any of the others within the series.  And thanks to DVD (and countless TV airings), the series shall live on forever.

A FAIRY TALE WEDDING (AND ITS UNHAPPY ENDING!)

Kim Kardashian Weds (and Divorces!)

There are just no words people!  This is our culture these days!  And I blame all of you.  Just so you know.

FALL TV 2011

All the Single Ladies!

The ladies certainly made good this Fall TV season.  Several of the new shows centered around women (mostly single!) and each of them had varying degrees of success (and others just flopped!).  FOX sitcom New Girl starring the charming Zooey Deschanel became the surefire hit of the new season garnering praise for its star and its style.  The show received top nominations at the Golden Globes (for Best Comedy Series and Best Actress for Ms. Deschanel).  Other female-centric sitcoms that hit it big were NBC's Up All Night (starring Christina Applegate and SNL alum Maya Rudolph), ABC's Suburgatory, and CBS' 2 Broke Girls (co-created by comedienne Whitney Cummings, whose other sitcom NBC's Whitney received renewal!).  Then there are the female-lead dramas.  The biggest ratings hits were CBS' Unforgettable (starring Without a Trace's Poppy Montgomery) and ABC's Revenge (featuring a deliciously wicked Madeleine Stowe), the latter garnered a Golden Globe nod for Lead Actress (Ms. Stowe).  Other dramas included ABC's Sunday package (alongside their outgoing hit Desperate Housewives!): the fantasy-themed Once Upon a Time and the 60's era stewardess tale Pan Am.  And the CW had a string of female-lead dramas (The Ringer, Hart of Dixie and The Secret Circle), all of which received renewal from the 5th place network.  As for ABC's reboot of Charlie's Angels and NBC's 60's era The Playboy Club (each female-lead!), the axe fell pretty quickly when the ratings were not high.  And unfortunately, NBC also cancelled the high quality American reboot of Prime Suspect, which featured a powerful and nuanced performance from star Maria Bello.  This Fall certainly was all about the Ladies!

THE RAINBOW RETURNS

The Muppets Make a Comeback

I have said so much about my love for The Muppets.  And this Thanksgiving, I got the wish I had been wishing for for over a decade.  A brand new theatrically-released Muppet movie (simply titled: The Muppets).  The movie was such a nostalgic throwback for me, yet still had enough modern sensibility that it could thrill children today.  All of my favorites were there: from Kermit the Frog to Miss Piggy to Fozzie Bear to The Great Gonzo to The Electric Mayhem!  And each character had their moment to shine.  There were certainly moments when my eyes welled with tears (remembering the happiness with which these colorful characters filled my childhood).  And there, of course, were moments where I laughed so hard that I could cry.  The Muppets are back and I hope it won't be too long before I see them again!

THE G.O.P. DEBATES

Political Pundits Remain Flummoxed

After a few months of debates between the high-profile Republican party Presidential candidates for next year's election, there still is no clear front-runner as far as the major media outlets are concerned.  Some say that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich leads in the polls.  A lot of the Republican experts still favor former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  And many of the Republicans I know personally have claimed they will vote for Ron Paul.  And with the dropping out of Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and the scandal that forced Herman Cain to suspend his seemingly successful campaign, many Conservatives are concerned they will not find someone who can take on President Obama in the 2012 General Election.  In the next coming months, as we have more debates and several states begin their important primaries, we shall see which one of these people shall emerge as the GOP's candidate for President.

IN MEMORIAM 2011

Elizabeth Taylor, Peter Falk, Amy Winehouse, Andy Rooney & Steve Jobs

We lost a lot of great people in 2011.  Among the most notable included 60 Minutes icon Andy Rooney, troubled pop singer Amy Winehouse, TV's Columbo Peter Falk, Apple founding "genius" Steve Jobs and Hollywood's ever-glamorous leading lady Elizabeth Taylor.  They live on for us through their contributions and their impact on the culture.

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 31 Years of Pop Culture

Tomorrow is a very special day, Blog readers.  In fact, I like to call it: The Holiest of Holy Days! Yes, tomorrow is my 31st Birthday.  I'm not ashamed to admit it (kind of!).  Today, for IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS, I want to go through the last 31 years of Pop Culture.  I won't go year by year (cause that would take to long, and quite honestly, depress the hell out of me!), but I will go through some of the most important News and Entertainment items from 1980 and this year (and the 30 years in between!).  So, let us go through this timeline with nostalgia, humor and respect (and if you want some alcohol, bring your own!):

1980

NEWS: California Governor Ronald Reagan defeats President Jimmy Carter in the 1980 Presidential Election.

MOVIES: George Lucas returns to the far away galaxy in the summer blockbuster sequel The Empire Strikes Back (above), and the villainous Darth Vader reveals an all-important [SPOILER!].

TELEVISION: Dallas villain J. R. Ewing (played by Larry Hagman) is shot by an unknown assailant in TV's first major cliffhanger.

MUSIC: Beatles legend John Lennon is assassinated outside his Manhattan apartment building by crazed fan Mark David Chapman.

THEATRE: Director-Choreographer Gower Champion dies on the opening night of his masterpiece production of 42nd Street.

SPORTS: The "Miracle On Ice" occurs in Lake Placid, NY as the U.S. Men's Hockey Team defeats the Soviet Union and goes on to win the Gold Medal in the 1980 Winter Olympics.

CELEBRITY: Comedian Richard Pryor accidentally sets himself on fire trying to freebase cocaine.

OVER THE NEXT 30 YEARS:

Prince Charles marries (and divorces!) Princess Diana; the spaceship Challenger explodes; the Berlin Wall falls (as does European Communism!); Nelson Mandela is released; Disney revives itself musically; James Cameron shows his box-office strength (more than once!); landmark TV shows like The Cosby Show, The Simpsons, Seinfeld, Friends, Survivor, American Idol, The West Wing and Mad Men all began; MTV ushers in Music Videos and superstars are made of Madonna, Prince, Sting, Nirvana, U2, Beyonce, Lady Gaga and many many more; Musicals dominate Broadway and New York tourism with shows like Cats, Les Miserables, The Phantom of the Opera, The Lion King and Wicked; Baseball, Basketball, Football and Hockey all suffered Player lockouts at one point or another; The Internet age transforms the culture through Microsoft Windows, America Online, MacOS, Google, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and the iPhone; and we lose people like Irving Berlin, Jim Henson, Kurt Cobain, Princess Diana, Mother Teresa, Pope John Paul II, Michael Jackson and the victims of 9/11.

AND NOW...
2011

NEWS: President Barack Obama announces that special forces have tracked down and killed terrorist leader Osama Bin-Laden.

MOVIES: The film adaptations of J. K. Rowling's best-selling Harry Potter books come to a close with the eighth and final movie, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II, breaking several box office records.

TELEVISION: Talk show host and media mogul Oprah Winfrey ends her long-running Talk show after 25 years of stories, laughs, tears, Favorite Things and A-Ha Moments.

MUSIC: Legendary pop-alternative band R.E.M. decides to break-up after 31 years together.

THEATRE: The much-anticipated, controversial and (oftentimes!) dangerous musical production of Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark finally opens after months of previews, creative changes and bad press.

SPORTS: The Green Bay Packers defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 45th Super Bowl (held at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, TX).

CELEBRITY: Prince William, eldest son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana, weds longtime girlfriend Kate Middleton in a well-publicized and regal ceremony at Westminster Abbey (below).

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2011 Emmy Award Predictions - Part III: Miniseries & Variety

Once again, it is time for some more 2011 Emmy Predictions.  Today, we have six categories left: 5 in the combined Miniseries/TV Movie categories and the one Variety Series category (I'm not going to cover Variety Special because The Kennedy Center Honors has dominated the category in recent years and there's nothing saying it won't take it this year.  Sorry, Lady Gaga!).  So, on with the predicting!

BEST MINISERIES OR MADE FOR TV MOVIE

Cinema Verite (HBO), Downton Abbey (PBS), The Kennedys (Reelz Channel), Mildred Pierce (HBO), The Pillars of the Earth (Starz), Too Big To Fail (HBO)
Quick Overview: With 21 Emmy nominations, HBO's 5-part remake of Mildred Pierce has more nods than ANY other program (Mad Men only got 19!); Downton Abbey was one of the most watched programs on PBS' long-running Masterpiece series; The Kennedys had enough controversy behind it to get it noticed; Starz has been trying to get into the Emmy game with more original shows and a miniseries like Ken Follett's The Pillars of the Earth; And HBO's two original movies Cinema Verite and Too Big To Fail each got enough critical acclaim (and star power!) to share the spotlight with Mildred Pierce.
Will Win: 21 nominations + Oscar-winning star + HBO = Emmy win for Mildred Pierce.
Dark Horse: PBS' Downton Abbey is not to be outdone with a stellar British cast and an Oscar-winning writer (Julian Fellowes) in its corner.
No Real Should Win: Either one (Mildred Pierce or Downton Abbey) are worthy of the prize.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Taraji P. Henson, Taken From Me: The Tiffamy Rubin Story (Lifetime); Diane Lane, Cinema Verite (HBO); Jean Marsh, Upstairs, Downstairs (PBS); Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey (PBS); Kate Winslet, Mildred Pierce (HBO)
Quick Overview: The women in this category took on roles that typically garner awards love: Mildred Pierce won Joan Crawford an Oscar back in 1946, so it takes an Oscar-winner like Kate Winslet to play a woman like the title character; Diane Lane took on the role of Pat Loud, the woman whose life was displayed before us on the legendary documentary An American Family; Taraji P. Henson played a mother searching frantically for her son in a typical Lifetime movie; Elizabeth McGovern was the lone American in the British setting of Downton Abbey; And nostalgia plays a factor for Jean Marsh, who returns to the role that made her famous: stern housemaid Rose Buck on Upstairs, Downstairs.
Will AND Should Win: Do I really need to discuss this? Kate Winslet will add an Emmy to her Oscar.
Dark Horse: There is the extremely small likelihood that Emmy voters will not mark Winslet's name on their ballots (thinking she will get enough votes from other voters!) and the most likely beneficiary would be Diane Lane, who in any other year might have had a stronger chance.

BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Idris Elba, Luther (BBC America); Laurence Fishburne, Thurgood (HBO); William Hurt, Too Big To Fail (HBO); Greg Kinnear, The Kennedys (Reelz Channel); Barry Pepper, The Kennedys (Reelz Channel); Edgar Ramirez, Carlos (Sundance Channel)

Quick Overview: 5 of the men in this category took on real-life roles and the sixth won many fans as a determined detective: Oscar-winner William Hurt shined for many critics as former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in HBO's Too Big To Fail; Laurence Fishburne had his Tony-nominated performance as Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall filmed for HBO; Greg Kinnear and Barry Pepper took on the roles of John F. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy, respectively; Virtual unknown Edgar Ramirez wowed critics with his multi-language and multi-layered performance as the notorious Venezuelan terrorist Carlos the Jackal; And Idris Elba (who also scored a nomination for his work on The Big C) was key to the BBC drama about a detective willing to push the limits.

Will Win: Edgar Ramirez has enough industry support behind him that his win would pretty much be a kind of "Cinderella Story."

Should Win: Though it's been renewed for a second season, Idris Elba gave a dynamic (and extremely favored) performance in the BBC drama Luther (just the type of performance that usually gets Emmy's attention!).

Dark Horse: Playing the former Treasury Secretary, William Hurt was at the center of a movie that was ripe for our time of economic uncertainty.  And we know that Hollywood loves to make a statement about changing times.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Dame Eileen Atkins, Upstairs, Downstairs (PBS); Melissa Leo, Mildred Pierce (HBO); Dame Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PBS); Mare Winningham, Mildred Pierce (HBO); Evan Rachel Wood, Mildred Pierce (HBO)

Quick Overview: Let's just face it! This category consists of two Dames and the ladies behind Mildred Pierce! Melissa Leo, who had a small role in the HBO miniseries, is enjoying the success a recent Oscar win brings an actress; Evan Rachel Wood locked horns with Kate Winslet and held her own; Mare Winningham, who also enjoyed a small role, has become the go-to character actress for many Made For TV Movies/Miniseries; Dame Eileen Atkins, who co-created the British drama with Jean Marsh, played her eccentric wealthy woman with her usual aplomb; And Dame Maggie Smith lent Julian Fellowes' Miniseries that same kind of dignity she puts in every movie she's been in from The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie (her Oscar-winning role!) to the Harry Potter series.

Will Win: Maggie Smith is always an awards favorite (though she rarely shows up to accept!) and her role on Downton Abbey is exactly the type to win her yet another statue.

Should Win: Eileen Atkins gave the finest performance in the somewhat slow-moving Upstairs, Downstairs, but her recent win for the PBS Miniseries Cranford (back in 2008) puts her at the bottom of most voters' list.

Dark Horse: Evan Rachel Wood had the most prominent supporting female role in Mildred Pierce and if you can hold your own opposite the likes of Kate Winslet, awards voters tend to take notice.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Paul Giamatti, Too Big To Fail (HBO); Brian F. O'Byrne, Mildred Pierce (HBO); Guy Pearce, Mildred Pierce (HBO); Tom Wilkinson, The Kennedys (Reelz Channel); James Woods, Too Big To Fail (HBO)

Quick Overview: 3 previous Emmy-winners, A Tony-winner and well-respected Australian actor make this category very intriguing: Guy Pearce played the dastardly man who seduces and abuses Kate Winslet; Tom Wilkinson took on the task of playing the Kennedys staunch patriarch; James Woods flamboyantly played the part of Lehman Brothers drowning CEO; Paul Giamatti added his awards pedigree to the role of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke; And Tony-winner Brian F. O'Byrne garnered much sympathy as Kate Winslet's philandering and unemployed husband.

Will Win: Guy Pearce has had roles in several notable movies (L.A. Confidential, The Hurt Locker, The King's Speech) and his highlighted role in the HBO Miniseries gave conniving playboy a new meaning.

Should Win: James Woods gave his usual over-the-top style to the powerful HBO Movie and was certainly the film's highlight.

Dark Horse: As it sometimes happens when two actors from the same movie are nominated, they tend to cancel each other out. Therefore, Tom Wilkinson could benefit from the fact he is the sole nominee from his Miniseries in the category.

BEST VARIETY SERIES

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central); Conan (TBS); The Daily Show With Jon Stewart (Comedy Central); Late Night With Jimmy Fallon (NBC); Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO); Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Quick Overview: Saturday Night Live enjoyed its 36th season and it also was one of its most-watched in recent years; Jimmy Fallon hosted last year's Emmy ceremony to much acclaim and his show has grown in its industry support; When it comes to industry support, former Late Night host Conan O'Brien's move to TBS was very publicized and very well-received; And the last three shows (The Daily Show, Real Time and The Colbert Report) take on the current news and discuss it to hilarious effect.

Will AND Should Win: The Daily Show has won this award for the past nine years and most pundits agree that the streak isn't likely to stop anytime soon.

Dark Horse: The Colbert Report has gained as many (if not more!) fans as The Daily Show, so Colbert is the most likely candidate to dethrone Jon Stewart's reign. Though there is something to be said for the recent surge in the number of Emmy nominations Saturday Night Live has been receiving!

There you have it: My predictions for 20 categories of the 2011 Primetime Emmy Awards! Thanks for taking the time to read and enjoy the Emmy Awards on Sunday, September 18 on FOX (hosted by Glee's Emmy-winner Jane Lynch).

I dedicate these posts to the victims of 9/11 and their families.

Just know that you are always in our thoughts and prayers.