IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2013 Oscar Predictions

It's still Awards Month!  And yesterday, the final ballots were due for the 85th Academy Awards (whether they want to call them that or not!).  So now it is time for me to give my final Predictions in the major categories.  And just like previous years, I like to hedge my bets, so to speak.  I love to tell my readers who I think "Will Win," but then follow with a "Dark Horse" or "Spoiler" (this year being referred to as "But...").  One comment you will see often throughout this article is that this has been one crazy Oscar season (for many different reasons!).  And with a crazy season, nothing is easy and anything can happen.  So let's dive right in with

MY 2013 ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE
The Nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Category Overview: Just like last year, we have 9 nominated films in the top category.  However unlike last year where The Artist was the early front-runner and pretty much kept that status throughout the precursors, several of this year's nominees have enjoyed that honor in this crazy Awards season.  And now that all the precursor Awards have had their say and it seems like one film has emerged towards the winner's circle, I remind you that in a crazy season like this: anything can happen!
Will Win: Now that it has won ALL the Guild Awards (including the Actors and Writers!), Argo has placed itself into becoming the first film since Driving Miss Daisy (back in 1990) to win Best Picture without even being nominated for Best Director.  It is a favorite of the critics and audiences have rallied around Ben Affleck since his snub from the Director's branch of the Academy.
But...: It's not all over for Spielberg and Company!  Having the most nominations could still have weighed with Academy voters.  Some could feel that with all the Guild wins, Ben Affleck has been sufficiently compensated for the snub and it's now time to be more "traditional."  And as brilliant as Steven Spielberg's gem is, Lincoln does fall into the "traditional" genre that is better known as "Oscar Bait."

BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees: Michael Haneke, Amour; Ang Lee, Life of Pi; David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook; Steven Spielberg, Lincoln; Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Category Overview: With several high profile snubs in this category (Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, Tom Hooper, Quentin Tarantino and Paul Thomas Anderson), one would think that this would be an easy win for one of Hollywood's biggest power-players.  But as I said earlier, nothing in this Oscar season is easy.
Will Win: Despite a small band of detractors, Steven Spielberg is one of Hollywood's greatest directors and it surprises people that he only has TWO Academy Awards for Best Director (for Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan).  This is the chance for Hollywood to give him his due and honor him with a well-deserved third Oscar for Lincoln (especially now with the likes of Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow out of the race!).
But...: That small band of detractors are rallying behind Ang Lee and his stunning visual achievements in Life of Pi.  And it is possible that their arguments have swayed some of the Academy voters.  While I still say Spielberg has it in the bag, I wouldn't be too surprised should Ang Lee's name be read on Sunday.

BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty; Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook; Emmanuelle Riva, Amour; Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Category Overview: Wallis is the youngest Best Actress nominee ever and Riva is the oldest (and each are receiving their first nod!).  The other three (Lawrence, Chastain and Watts) are receiving their second Oscar nomination.
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence was an early front-runner in the category the minute Silver Linings Playbook premiered at the Toronto Film Festival.  With a Golden Globe and a Screen Actors' Guild Award under her belt, the young actress is on her way to Oscar glory.
But...: Lawrence is not the only one here with a Golden Globe Award.  Jessica Chastain, who gave a stunningly brilliant performance in Zero Dark Thirty, won both the Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice Award for her efforts as a determined CIA Analyst.  Though the "torture issue" surrounding the film might have made voters squeamish to give ZDT a high-profile prize.
However...: Both Chastain and Lawrence have lost a few critics' prizes (the National Board of Review and the L.A. Film Critics) and last week's British Film Award (BAFTA) to Amour's Emmanuelle Riva.  The French character actress has been a star in France for several decades and many have pointed out that this is her chance to be honored by Hollywood for her many years in French Cinema (and we know how the Academy loves to give "Career Oscars!").

BEST ACTOR
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook; Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln; Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables; Joaquin Phoenix, The Master; Denzel Washington, Flight
Category Overview: Phoenix was an early front-runner, but spoiled his chances when he stated his true feelings about the whole campaigning process.  Jackman and Cooper both wowed audiences with their performances and Washington gave his best in a complex role (as he always does!).  But then there's Daniel Day-Lewis.
Will Win: From the moment critics and audiences saw screenings of Lincoln, the writing was on the wall that Day-Lewis would become the first performer to win a third Best Leading Actor trophy.  His performance is so nuanced and brilliant that no one can really compare to him (which is kind of unfair!).  The best description of Day-Lewis came from Entertainment Weekly's Owen Gleiberman who compared his style to a combination of the method attitudes of Marlon Brando and the classical training of Sir Laurence Olivier.  That's a combination that deserves every Award ever made!
But...:  There really isn't one in this category!  It's one of two major categories this year where there is a surefire front-runner from the word "Go."  The only thing that could stop Day-Lewis is a complete and utter shut-out of Spielberg's film.  But then who would the beneficiary of such a shut-out be?  The most likely would be either Jackman or Washington, and both of them have not gained enough traction in any of the precursors to be a real threat (despite Jackman's Golden Globe win!).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Amy Adams, The Master; Sally Field, Lincoln; Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables; Helen Hunt, The Sessions; Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Category Overview: All of the actresses in this category have been nominated before (though three of them are new to the Supporting Actress category!).
Will Win: Is there any doubt that Anne Hathaway will win this one?  From the second her voice was heard in the trailer singing the iconic "I Dreamed a Dream" song, pundits placed her at the top of their lists for this category.  Then when the film premiered, critics (even the ones that didn't like the film!) fell in love with her tragedienne performance especially when they discovered she sang the song live in one take!  On top of all that, she has been the most gracious winner at the precursors.  She has given heartfelt speeches and sincere praise to her fellow nominees (especially Sally Field!).  She's become the kind of Oscar contender Academy voters just adore.
But...: Like Best Actor above, if there is a "Spoiler" here, it would be minute.  Sally Field gives a great performance as Mary Todd Lincoln in Steven Spielberg's film.  The fact that she had to fight to keep the role once Liam Neeson backed out of the project is the kind of story Academy voters love.  However, it's a story that is not unfamiliar in Field's career.  Back in 1979, she had to fight to get the title role in Martin Ritt's Norma Rae.  Her endeavors were rewarded with her first of two Academy Awards (the second came for 1984's Places In the Heart, another role for which she "fought").  She's been rewarded enough for fighting for her roles.  It's Anne Hathaway's turn!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Category Overview: This category is going to work a little differently!  This is the toughest category to predict.  Maybe the toughest ever!  ALL of the five actors nominated are previous Oscar champs (a feat which has never happened before!).  And none of the precursors have been any help to any of the pundits.  It seems like they predict one and then someone else wins.  So I will take you through each nominee and give you the reason why I can see ANY ONE of them taking the prize on Sunday.

• Alan Arkin, Argo - For many, Arkin was the scene-stealing best part of Ben Affleck's political thriller.  As the Hollywood producer who joins Affleck's CIA Agent in endeavoring to rescue some American Embassy workers from Iran, Arkin has the best dialogue and the best scenes.  He hasn't won any of the precursors, but he's been nominated for every single one.  And with Argo surging forward in the top category, it is not unlikely that some of that love could fall Arkin's way.
• Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook - Out of all the nominees in this category, his win is the oldest (having won his second Oscar in 1981 for Raging Bull!).  Like Spielberg, it surprises people that De Niro (being the legend he is!) only has two Oscars.  And with his role as Bradley Cooper's tough-talking yet extremely sensitive and caring father, many critics felt that this was De Niro's return to form after years in light/comedic roles (Analyze This/That, Meet the Parents/Fockers, Stardust, etc.).  Actors love this movie (with nods in each of the Acting categories!) and De Niro could benefit from some of that love.
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master - Hoffman made himself an early front-runner with his role as a 1950s cult leader in Paul Thomas Anderson's poignant film.  He even won the Critics' Choice Award back in early January.  However with the film falling off the radar and only getting nods in three categories (the other two being Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress!), his chances have dimmed dramatically.  But he is the only contender who won a major Critics' prize.  That may carry weight with some of the Academy voters.
• Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln - He won the Screen Actors' Guild Award for his stirring portrayal of abolitionist Senator Thaddeus Stevens.  Some have even said it was hard to tell where Stevens ended and Lee Jones began (which is both a positive and a negative!).  He is the category front-runner with most of the pundits, but he has fierce competitors.
• Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained - A lot of people felt he should be in the Lead category as he is the contender who has the most screen time in his respective film.  But as he is not the title character, Waltz (my personal favorite!) has been relegated to the Supporting field and has raked in a couple prizes to boot!  Waltz beat his co-star (Leonardo DiCaprio) at the Golden Globes and just last week was honored with the BAFTA in this category.  For someone who at first was not on the radar at the beginning of Oscar season, he has now moved himself in to major contender status.

Will Win: Any one of them could be the winner, but I guess I'll go with the majority (the 27% majority!) and say that Tommy Lee Jones will be the eventual winner.  But I go on record saying that any one of these five names could be read from that envelope by The Help's Octavia Spencer on Sunday night.

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Oscar Predictions - Part II

With Part I of my Oscar predictions out of the way, it is time to finish up with the Writing, Directing and, of course, the most important award of them all: Best Picture.  Let me give you a reminder of what the percentages mean when I talk about each nominee:

• under 5% - very very slim chance, just count it/him/her lucky to be nominated
• between 5 and 20% - chances slightly better, yet no real chance
• between 20 and 30% - stronger chances, could pull off an upset
• between 30 and 50% - really good chances, most likely the front-runner
• over 50% - clear the mantle, your Oscar is ready for you

Now, on with the show, so to speak:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

And the nominees are: 

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants; John Logan, Hugo; George Clooney, Grant Heslov & Beau Willimon, The Ides of March; Steven Zaillian & Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball; Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Prediction: The Descendants - 42%

The rest: Moneyball - 36%; Hugo - 13%; Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy - 6%; The Ides of March - 3%

Explanation: With yesterday's Writer's Guild Awards win, Alexander Payne's emotional dramedy The Descendants has positioned itself as the major front-runner in this category.  Its stiffest competition comes in the form of two of the category's previous winners and their collaboration which garnered them the Critics Choice Award winner for Adapted Screenplay.  Aaron Sorkin's (whose work on last year's The Social Network won him every award possible) and Steven Zaillian (who won almost 20 years ago for his adaptation of Schindler's List) collaborated on the audience favorite Brad Pitt-lead film about the Oakland Athletics, Moneyball.  While The Descendants has the love of the Writer's Guild, remember that the WGA winner doesn't always find themselves as the Oscar-winner (see Up In the Air vs. Precious in 2010).  Tony-winning writer John Logan has a small chance for his adaptation of Hugo thanks to the film's number of nominations, but the film has been praised as more Martin Scorsese's success than that of its writer.  The much-praised adaptation of John Le Carre's Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy seems more like a lovable longshot and George Clooney's The Ides of March has had such a poor showing in nominations (much to many critics' chagrin) that it really is lucky to be in the mix at all.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

And the nominees are: 

Michel Hazanavicus, The Artist; Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids; J.C. Chandor, Margin Call; Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris; Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Prediction: Midnight In Paris - 45%

The rest: The Artist - 35%; Bridesmaids - 15%; A Separation - 3%; Margin Call - 2%

Explanation: This is Woody Allen's 15th Original Screenplay nomination (he has won this award twice for Annie Hall and Hannah and Her Sisters in 1978 and 1987, respectively).  He won the Writer's Guild Award yesterday as well as the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards.  In this category, he is the film titan to beat.  That is why I cannot rule out the possibility of a potential sweep of major categories from Best Picture front-runner The Artist.  If the Academy have truly taken Michel Hazanavicius' silent wonder into their hearts, the love may trickle into the Best Screenplay category (just like Best Picture winners The Hurt Locker and  The King's Speech did in the previous years).  Saturday Night Live star Kristen Wiig and fellow Grounding Annie Mumolo co-wrote the Summer comedy blockbuster Bridesmaids and their nomination has pleased many people (critics and audiences alike!).  However, raunchy comedies rarely get noticed by the Academy, so in this case the nomination is a win.  Foreign Film front-runner A Separation has a slightly (really slightly!) better chance than the really independent (yet really all-star!) Margin Call.

BEST DIRECTOR

And the nominees are: 

Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris; Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life; Alexander Payne, The Descendants; Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius - 50%

The rest: Martin Scorsese - 23%; Alexander Payne - 13%; Woody Allen - 11%; Terrence Malick - 3%

Explanation: Last year when I predicted that David Fincher would defeat Tom Hooper in this category, the Director's Guild had not handed down their opinion yet.  Thanks to the DGA Awards being earlier this Oscar Season, I can say with a little more confidence that The Artist's Michel Hazanavicius will be victorious in this category come Oscar night.  It is extremely rare that the Director's Guild winner is not the Oscar's Best Director (but it has happened!).  So if Hazanavicius is found, by some chance, not to be in the winner's circle that night, who will be?  The most likely candidate would be Hollywood's favorite auteur director Martin Scorsese.  Scorsese spent years being ignored by the Academy for his gritty and graphic violent movies like Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, GoodFellas and Gangs of New York.  In 2007, his long streak of losses ended with his win for the just-as-gritty The Departed.  Since then, many have felt that one Best Director win is not enough for the legendary filmmaker.  His out-of-the-box choice of directing the fantasy epic Hugo was deemed the Best Film by both the American Film Institute and the National Board of Review.  Also Hugo has the most Oscar nominations, which is definitely in Marty's favor.  As for the others, both Alexander Payne and Woody Allen are front-runners in the Screenplay categories so that is where they are likely to shine.  And Terrence Malick, though he won early awards (like Cannes!), his Tree of Life lost momentum going into the heavier part of Oscar Season (like the Golden Globes or the DGAs).  In fact, he wasn't even recognized by the Guild this year (David Fincher was nominated there along with the other four Oscar nominees for his stylish remake of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo).

BEST PICTURE

And the nominees are: 

The Artist; The Descendants; Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; The Help; Hugo; Midnight In Paris; Moneyball; The Tree of Life; War Horse

Prediction: The Artist - 35%

The rest: Hugo and The Descendants -15% each; The Help, Moneyball and Midnight In Paris - 10% each; War Horse - 3%; The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - 1% each

Explanation: With 9 films in the mix this year, the distribution of odds was slightly tougher.  That's why it was easier to bundle films together that had similar chances.  It pretty clear on most of the sites that follow the Awards that The Artist is the definite front-runner for the top prize (I have stated so at least 3 or 4 times on this blog alone!).  There are really only two films in the category that could challenge The Artist's dominance.  As I said above, Hugo won top prizes from the American Film Institute and the National Board of Review as well as receiving the most Oscar nominations for any film this year (with 11 nods to the The Artist's 10).  However, getting the most nominations does not mean a Best Picture win (see Avatar, Benjamin Button, There Will Be Blood and even Dreamgirls for proof!).  The Descendants won the Golden Globe (for Best Picture -Drama), the L.A. Film Critics prize and the Golden Satellite (again for Best Picture - Drama).  However, in two of those scenarios, The Descendants was not competing against The Artist.  Both The Help and Moneyball may be audience favorites and Midnight In Paris may have that Woody Allen pedigree behind it, but their equal chances dwindle with each passing moment.  And when it comes to pedigree (unintended Horse pun!), no one has more than Steven Spielberg.  However with no Best Director nod for the Hollywood heavyweight, his poignant and sentimental War Horse loses more and more steam.  Both The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close were early favorites in the season, yet little showing among the Guilds and other awards puts them on the "in your dreams" list.  All of this aside, The Artist has the most momentum and the most praise.  Let's see the first silent film to win Best Picture since Wings back in 1928 (the first year of the Oscars!).

As for all of the other categories, expect Hugo and The Artist to battle it out in most of the technical categories (i.e. Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Art Direction, etc.).  In Animated Film, the Spring hit Rango would be the one to bet on as the winner there.  And expect the Muppets to be victorious in the (albeit strange!) race for Best Song.  With all this said, I look forward to Sunday, February 26 when the Oscars will be handed out.  And after last year's lackluster ceremony, I'm even looking forward to a spirited televised event on ABC thanks to the choice of host: the ever-popular Billy Crystal.  Good luck to all the Nominees and Happy Oscar watching!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Oscar Predictions - Part I

With the Oscars less than 10 days away (Sunday, February 26 on ABC), it is time for me to start sharing with all of you my predictions for who shall win on Awards night.  Today, I will cover the four acting awards (as those tend to be the only awards people care about!).  On Monday, I will discuss the writing, directing and Best Picture awards.  If I'm in the mood, I may even add some predictions for the other categories (usually referred to as "technical categories").  Before I start, let me give you a quick breakdown of what the percentage odds mean for each nominated person/film:

• under 5% - very very slim chance, just count it/him/her lucky to be nominated
• between 5 and 20% - chances slightly better, yet no real chance
• between 20 and 30% - stronger chances, could pull off an upset
• between 30 and 50% - really good chances, most likely the front-runner
• over 50% - clear the mantle, your Oscar is ready for you

With that out of the way, let's talk about the Acting categories!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

And the nominees are: 

Berenice Bejo, The Artist; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Octavia Spencer, The Help

Prediction: Octavia Spencer - 60%

The rest: Berenice Bejo - 25%; Melissa McCarthy, Janet McTeer and Jessica Chastain - 5% each

Explanation: Spencer has won most of the Oscar precursor awards for her scene-stealing performance in the audience favored The Help.  Bejo could be a spoiler if Best Picture front-runner The Artist pulls off a sweep.  McCarthy is one of the few nominees in Oscar history for a comedic performance (meaning the nomination is the win!).  Tony-winner McTeer is an awards favorite, but hasn't been hitting the Oscar campaign like her co-star Glenn Close.  And Chastain's nomination is the benefit of roles in other critically notable films this year (see The Debt, Take Shelter, Coriolanus and Best Picture nominee The Tree of Life) and an over-the-top performance in a strong ensemble film.  But by all accounts, Spencer is the one to watch in The Help's brilliant ensemble (hence her wins at the Golden Globes, SAGs, BAFTAs and Critics Choice Awards!).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

And the nominees are: 

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn; Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Nick Nolte, Warrior; Christopher Plummer, Beginners; Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Prediction: Christopher Plummer - 72%

The rest: Kenneth Branagh and Max Von Sydow - 9% each; Jonah Hill - 6%; Nick Nolte - 4%

Explanation: Plummer is an extremely well-respected character actor amongst Hollywood's elite (and New York and London's for that matter!).  It was mind-boggling to many pundits a few years ago that after several years in many noteworthy films that his Best Supporting Actor nod for The Last Station was his first.  Now, he has a touching and funny role in an independent critical hit and has won literally every Oscar precursor award from the New York and L.A. Film Critics to the Golden Globe and SAG Awards.  If there is a lock for Oscar night, it is Plummer's win in this category.  As for the others, Branagh and Von Sydow each have a shot as their films are notable (and they have the veteran status in their corner as well!).  Hill is in the most notable film in the bunch.  But in a field full of veterans, the fact that he is an Oscar nominee is a reward.  And Nolte garnered his third nomination for his critically acclaimed performance in a so-so film that has received no other nominations.

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

And the nominees are: 

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs; Viola Davis, The Help; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Prediction: Viola Davis - 33%

The rest: Meryl Streep - 30%; Michelle Williams - 22%; Glenn Close - 12%; Rooney Mara - 3%

Explanation: This is probably the closest race of the high-profile categories.  Viola Davis won the SAG and Critics Choice Awards and her win (coupled with co-star Spencer's presumed win) would be a historic photo-op and one for the record books.  However, acting's unofficial "Grand Dame" Meryl Streep won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the National Society of Film Critics Awards.  This is her 17th nomination in 35 years in the film business and she has not won an Oscar since 1983 (when she won her second one for her brilliant performance in Sophie's Choice).  On the other hand, most of Streep's nominations (with a few exceptions) are for films in which she is the primary highlight and the films themselves are not on anyone's Greatest lists (meaning they range from "So-So" to "Above Average" and if she wasn't in them, they'd be "Crap").  And, according to most critics, The Iron Lady falls under that category.  If the Academy voters have trouble choosing between the two dramatic heavyweights, a split still is possible and Golden Globe winner Michelle Williams is the likely benefactor of such a possibility.  Meanwhile, Glenn Close (who hasn't been nominated since 1988's Dangerous Liaisons!) has been hitting the Awards campaign circuit, but with no precursor wins (losing to either Streep or Davis) an Oscar is unlikely.  And newcomer Rooney Mara is the perfect example of "lucky to be nominated."

BEST LEADING ACTOR

And the nominees are: 

Demian Bichir, A Better Life; George Clooney, The Descendants; Jean Dujardin, The Artist; Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Prediction: Jean Dujardin - 40%

The rest: George Clooney - 35%; Brad Pitt - 20%; Gary Oldman - 3%; Demian Bichir - 2%

Explanation: No one was surprised when Jean Dujardin won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy, but many were surprised when he defeated George Clooney and Brad Pitt at both the SAGs and the BAFTAs.  With those wins, Dujardin upped his odds and cemented the strong possibility of The Artist doing what The King's Speech did last year (win Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and Actor!).  However, George Clooney is a Hollywood heavyweight and his performance in The Descendants is widely acclaimed (winning the Golden Globe for Drama and a several other Critcs Awards).  Clooney's pal Brad Pitt, another Hollywood heavyweight, has yet to win an Oscar and he gives the type of performance in Moneyball that would win in any other year.  Sympathy could help him pull off a spoiler.  Had Gary Oldman won the BAFTA, his chances would be slightly higher.  And SAG nominee Demian Bichir pulled off a surprise getting the fifth slot in this race (meaning slim is the politest word for his chances!).

So there you have it, my predictions for the Acting Awards at this year's Oscars.  On Monday, I will talk the top prize (plus some others!).  Stay Tuned!!!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: Oscar Season 2012

Pictured: Kristen Wiig in Bridesmaids; Rooney Mara and Yorick van Wageningen in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; George Clooney, Shailene Woodley, Amara Miller and Nick Krause in The Descendants; Daniel Radcliffe and Ralph Fiennes in Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II

With the Golden Globe Awards this Sunday, the Oscar Season is pretty much in full swing.  And pundits all over Hollywood are scrambling to predict which 5-10 films will be nominated for the top prize at this year's Academy Awards.  Yes, notice I said "5-10 films."  That is because this year the Motion Picture Academy is shaking things up a bit from previous years.  Two years ago, they expanded the Best Picture category from 5 nominees to 10.  But because last year's 10 films seemed (at least to the Academy) to be predicted by every Hollywood pundit from Hawaii to Maine, they felt that they would change the way the voting is done on the nominees for Best Picture.  It is very complicated to explain (and there are breakdowns on the new system all over the web!) but basically: the eligible films will go through several rounds of voting until a handful of films receive a certain percentage of votes.  The Academy has stated there will be a total of no less than 5 nominees and no more than 10 nominees (meaning there could be 7 or 8 nominees for Best Picture).  Because of this new system and this unpredictable possibility of slots, critics are expanding their "Short Lists" of what could be nominated this year.  In this week's article, I am going to discuss the possible nominees for the top 4 Awards this year (Picture, Actor, Actress & Director).

Let's start with:
BEST PICTURE
There are two major front-runners in this category: the moving George Clooney comedy-drama The Descendants and the critical favored French-made silent film The Artist.  Both films have topped every "Best of" list for 2011 and The Artist just yesterday won the Critics Choice Award for Best Picture (The Descendants has won the top prize from both the American Film Institute and the L.A. Film Critics).  Their slots on the list are almost more than assured.  Three other films have been in every discussion when it comes to Best Picture: the extremely popular comedy-drama The Help, the Brad Pitt lead film about the Oakland Athletics Moneyball and Steven Spielberg's emotional World War I film War Horse.  The Help surprised many by being one of the better box office draws of the end of the Summer and Moneyball is receiving praise left and right in particular for Brad Pitt's dynamic performance and the verbose screenplay by previous Oscar-winners Steven Zaillian (Schindler's List) and Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network).  As for War Horse, the film is being hailed as "Spielberg magic" and is getting positive comparisons to his previous Oscar faves Saving Private Ryan and Schindler's List.  But we should not forget the dark horses that this category has seen over the past 2 months: Martin Scorsese's charming fantasy Hugo, David Fincher's dark and stylistic vision of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and Woody Allen's artistic and imaginative Midnight In Paris.  All three have made their way in to various pre-Oscar Awards (with Hugo winning the top honors from the National Board of Review and all three esteemed directors knocking even Steven Spielberg out of contention with the Director's Guild Awards).  And when it comes to dark horses, both Terrence Malick's stream of consciousness film The Tree of Life and Stephen Daldry's 9/11-related drama Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close both won the earliest of the pre-Oscar prizes (with Tree of Life winning at the Cannes Film Festival and Extremely Loud winning praise from the Broadcast Critics Association).  Though their respective Oscar buzz has faltered, they still are not out of the running.  And let's not forget the bigger box office hits.  Recent years, people have noted that the bigger box office winners get ignored come Oscar time.  That changed when the third Lord of the Rings movie won in 2004.  Now, films like the hit comedy Bridesmaids and 2011's ultimate box office champ Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II have stronger chances than they would have had say ten years ago.  Lower on most lists are some other critical favorites like the George Clooney-directed political drama The Ides of March, the stylish adaptation of John le Carre's novel Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and Clint Eastwood's biopic of controversial FBI director J. Edgar Hoover simply titled J. Edgar.  Ultimately, if 10 films are indeed to be nominated, the Best Picture nominees will look something like this:

• The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Moneyball, War Horse, Hugo, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Midnight In Paris, Bridesmaids and The Tree of Life
• With these possible spoilers (replacing any of the ones after Hugo!): Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II, The Ides of March, J. Edgar and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Spoilers can happen people!  Remember when The Blind Side was nominated two years ago?  Nobody saw that one coming!

Speaking of The Blind Side, let's move on to:
BEST ACTRESS
Like Best Picture, this category has two very clear and very strong front-runners.  Viola Davis wowed critics and audiences alike with her moving performance in The Help (and her recent win at last night's Critics Choice Awards doesn't hurt either!).  Her biggest competitor is her Doubt co-star and quite possibly the greatest actress of the last 30 years, Ms. Meryl Streep.  This year, Streep conquered the polarizing role of Great Britain's former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady and critics everywhere are saying this is the performance to win Streep a potential third Oscar (she has been nominated 16 times over 32 years, winning twice back in 1980 and 1983!).  The third lady to mention with this category is Michelle Williams.  The late Heath Ledger's former wife has certainly been on the Oscar radar with her performances in films like Brokeback Mountain and 2010's critical favorite Blue Valentine.  This year, her performance in backstage showbiz flick My Week With Marilyn (in which Williams tackles the role of Marilyn Monroe!) is gaining universal praise and she is assured a win this Sunday at the Golden Globes for Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy.  Some have even stated that should voters split between the choice of Viola Davis and Meryl Streep, that Williams would be the potential victor.  And let us not forget Glenn Close.  The multiple Tony and Emmy-winner has not been nominated for an Oscar since 1989 (Dangerous Liaisons, her fifth nomination by then!), but her performance in the indie film Albert Nobbs has generated buzz and nominations from both the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild.  The fifth slot would most likely go to Oscar-winner Tilda Swinton (who won a few years back for her icy performance in Michael Clayton).  Swinton has left critics awestruck with her performance as the mother of a child who is a possible sociopath in We Need to Talk About Kevin.  But since its the Oscars, there's always a chance of a surprise nominee.  Three other actresses on the Awards radar are Oscar-winner Charlize Theron for her role in Diablo Cody's darkly sardonic Young Adult, Kirsten Dunst won at both the Cannes Film Festival and National Society of Film Critics for Lars Von Trier's metaphorical Melancholia and Rooney Mara garnered a Golden Globe nod for her performance in David Fincher's stylish remake of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.  Here is what Best Actress most likely will look like:

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs; Viola Davis, The Help; Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin; Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
• With Charlize Theron, Kirsten Dunst or Rooney Mara as potential surprises (likely knocking out Ms. Close or Ms. Swinton).

With the ladies out of the way, let's go to:
BEST ACTOR
With The Descendants and The Artist being the front-runners in the Best Picture category, their respective male leads (George Clooney and Jean Dujardin) certainly have made their way to the top of the list of Best Actor candidates.  Both actors are poised to win Golden Globes on Sunday night: Clooney for Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama and Dujardin for Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy.  And don't forget the praise that Brad Pitt has received for his dynamic portrayal of Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane in Moneyball.  And when it comes to playing real-life figures, Leonardo DiCaprio earned praise and Oscar buzz for his performance as J. Edgar Hoover in Clint Eastwood's J. Edgar.  With four slots taken now, that last slot becomes extremely competitive.  The likeliest candidate (and my personal favorite!) is Gary Oldman.  Oscar loves to bestow praise on veteran actors who have been around for years and never fully got recognition.  In Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy, Oldman has received some of the best reviews of his long career and when his name was NOT among the nominees for both the Golden Globes or the Screen Actors' Guild Awards, the cry of "Foul!" was loud enough to be heard around the world.  Oscar voters may want to rectify the mistake that the HFPA and the SAG have made.  But Oldman's major competitors for that final spot are two actors who have had a wealth of good film performances this year.  Ryan Gosling made three critically notable films this year (The Ides of March, Drive and Crazy, Stupid Love) and he could be nominated for any one of them.  Inglorious Basterds co-star Michael Fassbender also made multiple films this year (he was Magneto in the prequel X-Men: First Class and starred in three independent films Jane Eyre, A Dangerous Method and the controversial Shame).  While he got a Golden Globe nod for Shame, his performance in the other two independent flicks have not gone unnoticed.  The one problem with multiple film entries for an actor or actress come Oscar time is that if each film earns the actor praise, voters might split between which film the actor should receive a nod for that year.  The final competitor who could likely steal the final nod is Owen Wilson.  In Woody Allen's well-received Midnight In Paris, Wilson charmed audiences and critics alike well enough to garner a Golden Globe nomination and is considered to have at least a quarter of a chance against the power of the praise poured onto Jean Dujardin's performance in The Artist.  With all that said, this is what I think Best Actor will look like:

• George Clooney, The Descendants; Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar; Jean Dujardin, The Artist; Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Brad Pitt, Moneyball
• With Gosling, Fassbender (for any one of their films!) and Wilson as potential surprises (unfortunately acing out Mr. Oldman from getting his first Oscar nod!).

And last but certainly not least, we move on to:
BEST DIRECTOR
Most often, Best Director tends to match the Best Picture nominees.  But that changed with the Best Picture category being expanded.  And with this year's unpredictable number of Best Picture nominees, Best Director still is very difficult to match.  Just as their films are front-runners for the top prize, both Alexander Payne (The Descendants) and Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) are on the top of the Best Director list.  As I said above, Martin Scorsese (Hugo), Woody Allen (Midnight In Paris) and David Fincher (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo) joined Payne and Hazanavicius as nominees for the Directors' Guild Award.  And George Clooney (for his political drama The Ides of March) joined all those names (sans Fincher) as the nominees for this Sunday's Golden Globes Best Director prize.  As a fan of his for most of my life, I never ever underestimate the Academy's love for Steven Spielberg and his War Horse could definitely garner him his sixth Oscar nod for Best Director.  While both Moneyball and The Help have received tons of critical praise, their respective directors (Bennett Miller and Tate Taylor) have been mostly afterthoughts when it comes to discussing this category.  And finally both Stephen Daldry and Terrence Malick tend to get notice come Oscar time whenever they make films, but their respective movies (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and The Tree of Life) have faltered on their road to the Oscar nominations.  Best Director will most likely look something like this:

• Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris; David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Alexander Payne, The Descendants; Martin Scorsese, Hugo; Steven Spielberg, War Horse
• I realize I have listed 6 names here, but I just cannot count out Spielberg's chances just yet!  He is for sure the top potential "surprise."
• The other potential surprises could be either Mr. Daldry, Mr. Malick or Mr. Clooney.

I'm not going to discuss the potential Supporting nominees or the potential Writing nominees, since those categories will most likely match the Golden Globe nominees or those respective Guild Awards (both Actors and Writers!).  Once the nominees have been announced (on Tuesday, January 24th), I will begin work on researching my predictions.  Who will win the top prizes this year?  We shall see!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2011 Emmy Award Predictions - Part II: Drama

And now, it is time for more 2011 Emmy Predictions.  Today, let's comb through the Drama categories!

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Boardwalk Empire (HBO), Dexter (Showtime), Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV), Game of Thrones (HBO), The Good Wife (CBS), Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Three-time winner Mad Men is trying for a fourth consecutive win (only Hill Street Blues and The West Wing have had four consecutive* Best Drama Series wins!); Showtime's Dexter had a less-than-stellar fourth season, but is still loved by audiences; Critical favorite Friday Night Lights ended it's rocky five-year run (on cable's DirecTV before being rerun on NBC!) and finally garnered one of the top nods; HBO's newcomers Boardwalk Empire and Game of Thrones hit it off with both critics and fans, so Emmy voters took notice; And CBS' legal drama The Good Wife wowed people with an emotionally charged second season and represents the broadcast networks among the wealth of cable favorites.
Will Win: Mad Men had a very well-received fourth season (and is pulling out all the stops in its ad campaigns!), so it is very likely to join Hill Street Blues, The West Wing and L.A. Law in the pantheon of Emmy's Best Dramas.
Should Win: I have said this before I believe, so I'll say it again: The Good Wife is the best show on Television currently and deserves every award in can receive.
Dark Horse: HBO wooed Martin Scorsese into directing (and producing!) the buzzworthy pilot of Boardwalk Empire, so they will do all they can to stop Mad Men's winning streak. They already won the Golden Globe earlier this year!
*=L.A. Law also had four Best Drama Series wins, but not consecutively.  Interestingly enough, all three shows (Hill Street Blues, L.A. Law and The West Wing) were broadcast on NBC!

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Kathy Bates, Harry's Law (NBC); Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV); Mireille Enos, The Killing (AMC); Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (NBC); Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife (CBS); Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Last year's winner Kyra Sedgwick beat out presumed front-runner Julianna Margulies, and Margulies again is near the top of every pundits' list to take the award this year; Elisabeth Moss was bumped up to Lead Actress from last year with stirring episodes and storylines; Connie Britton enjoyed her first nod last year and the critics would love to see her rewarded for the show's emotional last season; Oscar-winner Kathy Bates was a shoo-in to get nominated, despite her show garnering mixed reviews from critics and audiences; Character actress Mireille Enos gives a quiet yet resonant performance as a detective investigating a murder on AMC's The Killing; And Mariska Hargitay (who won this award back in 2006!) has become the category's perennial nominee (quite possibly over more deserving candidates, but I digress!).
Will AND Should Win: I've already stated my love for The Good Wife and Julianna Margulies has picked an emotionally packed episode to submit to Emmy voters. Victory shall be hers!
Dark Horse: Elisabeth Moss also is submitting a critically acclaimed (and emotionally powerful!) episode of Mad Men, and she could very well keep Margulies from the winner's podium (just like Kyra Sedgwick did last year!).

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire (HBO); Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV); Michael C. Hall, Dexter (Showtime); John Hamm, Mad Men (AMC); Hugh Laurie, House M.D. (FOX); Timothy Olyphant, Justified (F/X)

Quick Overview: With three-time previous winner Bryan Cranston ineligible this year, four of last years nominees are vying for this prize along with two category newcomers: John Hamm has picked a stellar episode (the same episode Elisabeth Moss picked!) to submit to Emmy voters; Kyle Chandler is banking on his show's emotional series finale to win it for him; Both Hugh Laurie and Michael C. Hall may play unlikable or morally polarizing characters, but they picked jaw-dropping episodes that could gain (or lose!) them support; Timothy Olyphant picked his show's second season finale on his first nomination for his complex role of a Southern lawman; And Golden Globe winner Steve Buscemi has name recognition and the full support of HBO behind him for this extremely tough category.
Will AND Should Win: It is said John Hamm has waited three long years to be rewarded for playing the snake-like ad man Don Draper and with Cranston ineligible, this may be Hamm's time to finally reap some praise.
Dark Horse: Steve Buscemi won both the Golden Globe and the SAG Award for his work as tough gangster Nucky Johnston, and Emmy voters may use those award precursors as signs from above.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (CBS); Michelle Forbes, The Killing (AMC); Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (AMC); Kelly MacDonald, Boardwalk Empire (HBO); Margo Martindale, Justified (F/X); Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife (CBS)
Quick Overview: Pundits have stated that this is the category that stumps them every year! Last year's winner Archie Panjabi was a pleasant surprise and The Good Wife's writers stepped up her game for the show's second season; Her co-star Christine Baranski is always an Emmy favorite no matter what she does; Christina Hendricks is still extremely well-liked among Mad Men's Sterling-Cooper Ad Agency; Character actress Margo Martindale played the villain perfectly on F/X's Justified; Longtime TV actress Michelle Forbes (Star Trek: The Next Generation, True Blood) has finally received an Emmy nod for her work as the murder victim's distraught mother on The Killing; And previous Emmy-winner Kelly MacDonald (for the TV Movie The Girl In the Cafe) is the best reviewed actor/actress on HBO's new hit.
Will Win: Emmys love to reward character actors in truly over-the-top performances (see Jane Lynch or Doris Roberts), so Margo Martindale may ride her character's villainy all the way to an Emmy win.
Should Win: Archie Panjabi may have surprised people last year with her win, but her emotionally understated performance as the law firm's in-house investigator went to new levels this year.
Dark Horse: If Mad Men is indeed going to take the top prize (and quite possibly, Best Actor!), Emmy voters may want to reward Boardwalk Empire with something (besides director!) and so Kelly MacDonald (who was also part of the last Harry Potter movie this summer!) may receive the show's consolation prize.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age (TNT); Josh Charles, The Good Wife (CBS); Alan Cumming, The Good Wife (CBS); Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (HBO); Walton Goggins, Justified (F/X); John Slattery, Mad Men (AMC)

Quick Overview: Two of the men from The Good Wife (Josh Charles and Alan Cumming) submitted great episodes and their characters are indeed central to the show's biggest storylines; John Slattery now has his fourth nomination and has picked an episode that could get him the elusive prize; Andre Braugher was, as far as the critics were concerned, the best part of TNT's now-defunct Men of a Certain Age; And category newcomers (and well-respected character actors!) Peter Dinklage and Walton Goggins are riding their respective shows' critical acclaim to possible Emmy glory.
Will Win: Like his co-star John Hamm, this may very well finally be John Slattery's chance to call himself an Emmy winner.
Should Win: Peter Dinklage gave one of the finest performances on HBO's fantasy hit and his particular episode features one of his most touching and stirring monologues.
Dark Horse: The love for F/X's Justified may just stretch beyond Margo Martindale and onto Walton Goggins' reserved and understated performance (the same style he used on another F/X Emmy favorite: The Shield).

BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Cara Buono, Mad Men (AMC); Joan Cusack, Shameless (Showtime); Loretta Devine, Grey's Anatomy (ABC); Randee Heller, Mad Men (AMC); Mary McDonnell, The Closer (TNT); Julia Stiles, Dexter (Showtime); Alfre Woodard, True Blood (HBO)
Quick Overview: Yes, there are 7 nominees in this category AND all 7 actresses not only guested on one episode of their respective Dramas, they were all recurring roles on each show! But because of Emmy rules, they each picked one episode that best shows their roles during the season: Julia Stiles had a much-hyped and critically dynamic role as serial killer Dexter's assistant (who also was a former victim of the killer he was facing!); Joan Cusack played the agoraphobic love interest to William H. Macy's drunken single father; Mad Men's Cara Buono and Randee Heller were two of the Sterling-Cooper many secretaries that kept the office running; Mary McDonnell played an Internal Affairs Captain investigating the possible misconduct of star Kyra Sedgwick's character; Loretta Devine returned to Seattle Grace as the wife of the Chief of Surgery, this time struggling with early-onset Alzheimer's Disease; And awards favorite Alfre Woodard played the mother of the gay-psychic cook on the fan favorite True Blood.
Will Win: Though this category has usually gone to older actresses in the past (Ann-Margaret, Leslie Caron and Ellen Burstyn are among the more recent winners!), Julia Stiles has the buzz surrounding her (and a Golden Globe nod!) that puts her in the front-runner position in this category.
Should Win: True Blood is a "true" fan favorite and has never received any kind of Emmy love (beyond technical awards!), so Alfre Woodard has the kind of Emmy cache that would give Emmy voters an excuse to give the vampire series a major Emmy.
Dark Horse: Joan Cusack is also an awards favorite (two Oscar nods under her belt!) and her submitted episode is very critically acclaimed, so she could be the name called at the Creative Arts Emmys on Saturday, September 10 (where the Guest Actor/Actress awards are given out!).

BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Beau Bridges, Brothers & Sisters (ABC); Jeremy Davies, Justified (F/X); Bruce Dern, Big Love (HBO); Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife (CBS); Paul McCrane, Harry's Law (NBC); Robert Morse, Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Four awards veterans face-off with two well-liked character actors in this interesting category: Michael J. Fox gave a dynamic performance in the recurring role of a lawyer who keeps Julianna Margulies' character guessing; Veteran actors Bruce Dern, Beau Bridges and Robert Morse each played small recurring roles on their respective shows well enough to put them in this Emmy race; Paul McCrane plays the recurring role of prosecutor to Kathy Bates' outspoken defense attorney; And Jeremy Davies played the unlikable criminal lawman Timothy Olyphant dragged out into the woods in the F/X show's second season finale.
Will AND Should Win: Though I liked him better on the first episode he was on, Michael J. Fox chose the second episode on which he appeared and we found out more about his character's backstory and home life. Emmy voters may very well pick him because Michael J. Fox has proven he can play vulnerable extremely well (just watch an episode of Family Ties!).
Dark Horse: There are actually two potential spoilers! Paul McCrane chose an episode in which his character had a virtual meltdown in court followed by an emotional scene he shared with Oscar-winner Kathy Bates. Sometimes proximity to an awards pro rubs off (that, and the show was created by David E. Kelley who as written more Emmy-winning characters than any other writer!). Also, Jeremy Davies had an staggeringly powerful scene in which his slightly villainous character is getting tortured by star Timothy Olyphant. Emmy voters may want to reward an unlikable character who shows his terrified vulnerability.

TOMORROW!

Part III: The Miniseries & Variety Categories!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2011 Emmy Award Predictions - Part I: Comedy

The 2011 Primetime Emmy Awards are right around the corner (Sunday, September 18 on FOX).  So with the upcoming Awards, it is time that I give you my Emmy predictions.  I will be doing this over the next three days in three parts.  Why three parts?  Because I am covering 20 Primetime categories and I didn't want people's eyes to get tired in one day (unless you choose to wait until Saturday to read them and, if so, that's your problem!).  I have split the predictions into Comedy categories, Drama categories and Miniseries/Variety categories (I have stated before that I don't do Reality categories!).  Up first, are the hilarious, irreverent and (in recent years) emotionally touching Comedy categories.  One more thing: I've already gone over which actors and actresses got snubbed so these posts are not the place to lament that!  The Nominees are what they are!  Now, onto the predicting!

BEST COMEDY SERIES

The Big Bang Theory (CBS), Glee (FOX), Modern Family (ABC), The Office (NBC), Parks and Recreation (NBC), 30 Rock (NBC)
Quick Overview: Last year's winner Modern Family had a strong enough second season to garner praise all-around from the same critics from before; Audience darling Glee suffered a slumpy sophomore season (and a summer filled with backstage drama unfolding in the media!); Previous winners 30 Rock and The Office are the categories "Old Hands" and may be passed their prime despite creatively improved seasons; And both The Big Bang Theory and Parks and Recreation returned in their fourth and third season (respectively) to more acclaim and more fans than they had before.
Will Win: Modern Family most likely will pull off their second consecutive win.
Should Win: The Big Bang Theory proved in its fourth season it is the best sitcom on Television.
Dark Horse: Parks and Recreation's die-hard fanbase might just seep into the Academy enough to pull off a surprise victory.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie (Showtime); Tina Fey, 30 Rock (NBC); Laura Linney, The Big C (Showtime); Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly (CBS); Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope (FOX); Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (NBC)
Quick Overview: Golden Globe winner Laura Linney has never lost in any of her three previous Emmy races (in other categories, mind you!); Amy Poehler has submitted the hilarious "Flu Season" episode of her popular sitcom where critics compared her performance to the likes of Lucille Ball; Category newcomers Melissa McCarthy and Martha Plimpton have had well-respected careers (especially McCarthy with her breakout role in the summer film Bridesmaids); Previous winners Edie Falco and Tina Fey, while both extremely loved on their respective shows, were considerably not as strong this season as competitors Linney or Poehler.
Will Win: Laura Linney has the talented career that Emmy voters just love.
Should Win: My personal favorite in this category is the delightful work of Martha Plimpton, yet her show is not high enough on Emmy's radar.
Dark Horse: Amy Poehler may be considered the funniest woman in the category and since last year's winner Edie Falco pointed out her own lack of hilarity, Emmy voters may want to reward a true sitcom performer.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock (NBC); Steve Carell, The Office (NBC); Louis C. K., Louie (F/X); Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory (CBS); Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (Showtime); Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Quick Overview: With Steve Carell ending his 7-year run on The Office this year, it may be high time for Emmy voters to finally reward his emotional last episode; Last year's winner Jim Parsons might benefit from his character's strong showing on both his submitted episode and co-star (and fellow nominee) Johnny Galecki's episode, while Galecki primarily plays "Straight Man" to Parsons' eccentric Sheldon Cooper; Past winner (and constant SAG Award winner) Alec Baldwin may suffer from a poor episode submission as he chose 30 Rock's lackluster Season Finale over the well-received 100th Episode; And cable favorites Louis C.K. and Matt LeBlanc suffer from the dangerous "Larry David-syndrome" where they basically play versions of themselves on their respective shows (though Louis C.K.'s is more favored by the critics than Larry David ever was!).
Will Win: Steve Carell was everything he needed to be in his final episode and Emmys are suckers for that.
Should Win: Jim Parsons proved once again this year how good he is at being the irritating and anal Dr. Sheldon Cooper.
Dark Horse: Louis C.K. may be able to pull off what Ricky Gervais did a couple years ago (when Gervais won for HBO's Extras over Carell!) thanks to both fan and critical support.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Julie Bowen, Modern Family (ABC); Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock (NBC); Jane Lynch, Glee (FOX); Sofia Vergara, Modern Family (ABC); Betty White, Hot In Cleveland (TV Land); Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Quick Overview: Jane Lynch, this year's Emmy hostess, may benefit from showing versatility on both Glee and Saturday Night Live (the SNL episode she hosted and featured in is being submitted by fellow nominee Kristen Wiig); Wiig herself is outshone by Lynch on the previously mentioned SNL episode; Both Julie Bowen and Sofia Vergara cancelled each other out last year and may do so again, though Bowen had a stronger showing in the show's second season; Jane Krakowski has generally become the category's also-ran despite her well-received work this past year; And then there is the juggernaut resurgence of the amazing Betty White!
Will Win: Jane Lynch will probably pull off another win (thanks to Ms. Wiig!).
Should Win: Sofia Vergara deserves recognition for her delightful role as Gloria but her episode submission choices don't always reflect that quite well.
Dark Horse: Julie Bowen may have edged out Vergara's hilarity this past seasons and both her own episode submission (as well as Vergara's!) display that.
The Betty White Factor: Betty White is just beloved, and Emmys love to reward the beloved.
* = Interesting SIDE NOTE: This is the one Emmy category where most pundits had predicted all 6 nominees from Day One! Yet, it is now one of the few Emmy categories that seems to be the most "Up In the Air" as far as the winning result goes! Just thought I'd mention that!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Ty Burell, Modern Family (ABC); Chris Colfer, Glee (FOX); Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men (CBS); Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family (ABC); Ed O'Neill, Modern Family (ABC); Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family (ABC)
Quick Overview: Golden Globe winner Chris Colfer had a strong storyline this past year on the FOX mega-hit; Previous winner Jon Cryer garnered the sympathy vote thanks to the bad press his show received this year (because of it's "Winning!" former star!); Yet, there is no denying the strength of Modern Family in this category with ALL FOUR of its male adult leads garnering nominations: Ty Burrell and Eric Stonestreet are usually the critical (and fan) favorites, thanks very much to their over-the-top characters; Jesse Tyler Ferguson gets rare moments to shine (like the show's "Halloween" episode, which he cleverly submitted!); and veteran Ed O'Neill has now garnered his FIRST Emmy nomination for his strong and funny (yet, at times, touching) role of the family's patriarch.
Will Win: Ty Burrell has the best episode submission (plus a strong showing in his co-stars' episodes!), so therefore will most likely win.
Should Win: Ed O'Neill is the character actor who never got recognized for previous work (in particularly Married...With Children) and Emmy voters should take the time to reward that.
Dark Horse: Chris Colfer is on one of the most popular shows and is the most popular performer/character on that show, as his Golden Globe win this year fully reflects.

BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Elizabeth Banks, 30 Rock (NBC); Kristin Chenoweth, Glee (FOX); Tina Fey, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Dot Marie Jones, Glee (FOX); Cloris Leachman, Raising Hope (FOX); Gwyneth Paltrow, Glee (FOX)

Quick Overview: Cloris Leachman has won more Emmys (in multiple categories) than any other female performer (I believe her grand total is 9 or 10!) and her recurring role as Maw-Maw on new hit Raising Hope most predictably garnered her yet another nod; Tina Fey pulled out her famed Sarah Palin impersonation and received her third nod in this category; Elizabeth Banks' recurring role on 30 Rock was good enough to nominate her over the show's more illustrious female guests (like Elaine Stritch, Queen Latifah and Sherri Shepard); And then there is Glee: Tony-winner Kristin Chenoweth (and Emmy-winner for the long-gone Pushing Daisies!) has her second nod in this category for her eccentric recurring role of April Rhodes; Dot Jones' tough yet emotional role of football coach Shannon Beiste pushed her into the category spotlight (over usual Emmy favorite Carol Burnett!); And Oscar-winner Gwyneth Paltrow began a three-episode stint on the FOX hit with one of the few critically acclaimed episodes of the show's second season.
Will AND Should Win: Last November, when I saw the Glee episode titled "The Substitute," I turned to my father and said: "We just saw next year's Emmy winner for Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series." He pretty much agreed with me that Gwyneth Paltrow is the clear winner in this category.
Dark Horse: With so many previous Emmy wins, Cloris Leachman could pull off an upset if indeed Emmy voters are bored with Glee's inconsistent storylines and backstage behavior.

BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Will Arnett, 30 Rock (NBC); Matt Damon, 30 Rock (NBC); Idris Elba, The Big C (Showtime); Zach Galifianakis, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Nathan Lane, Modern Family (ABC); Justin Timberlake, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Quick Overview: Idris Elba's recurring role on the Showtime dramedy was very well-received, but his surprise nomination in this category is more thanks to his work on BBC America's Luther (more on that in the Miniseries categories!); Nathan Lane is very well-respected by the showbiz community and Modern Family is obviously beloved by Emmy voters; Both Will Arnett and Matt Damon gave well-received performances on their respective episodes of 30 Rock; And, in recent years, Saturday Night Live has surprised many by taking the Guest Actor/Actress categories which is good news for both Justin Timberlake and Zach Galifianakis.
Will Win: Justin Timberlake won this category two years ago and his episode this year was SNL's most-watched of the season. Emmy voters like a little popularity.
Should Win: Nathan Lane gave a hilarious performance on the Modern Family episode "Boys' Night," and his long career (in TV, Film and Theatre!) have earned him the love of his fellow actors.
Dark Horse: Zach Galifianakis' SNL monologue was one of the funniest monologues of the season and Emmy voters could check their ballots based on those first 5-10 minutes.

TOMORROW!

Part II: The Drama Categories

Emmys and Comedy: Who will get nominated?

With the end of the 2010-2011 TV season over last week, the speculation has begun as to what shows will get nominated for the TV industry's top honors: The Emmy Awards.  If you go to sites like TVLine.com, Deadline.com, Television Without Pity or Entertainment Weekly, you will find many articles about who the front-runners are in the respective categories.  So this week, on my blog I will discuss and breakdown the various Comedy categories and their potential nominees.  The reason I am only discussing the Comedy categories is because the only Dramas that I have been watching are the "procedurals" (like NCIS and Criminal Minds), which are loved by many but rarely on the Emmy Radar.  The only Emmy-worthy drama I watch is The Good Wife, and that is poised to be the only network drama nominated amongst a range of cable hits (re: Mad Men and Dexter).  Therefore, I don't feel qualified to give my opinion on the Drama categories just yet (we'll wait until the nominations come out and I have had a chance to catch up on the Emmy-worthy dramas). With that said, let's dive right in!  I have broken each of the five major Comedy categories down into four "Distinctions" (or Sections), the definitions for which can be seen below.  

DISTINCTIONS

For Sures: These are the ones that are definite locks to get nominated (for whatever reason!).

Favorites: Their nomination is not as guaranteed, but have extremely strong chances.

Possibles: This is the "Wild Card" section, where any one of these can pull off a surprise and get nominated.

Long Shots: These are the ones that get mentioned in "Dream Ballots," but their chances are less likely.

Now, on with my speculations:

BEST COMEDY SERIES

FOR SURES

Glee - There have been many hit shows over the years that have been plagued with what is referred to as a "sophomore slump," meaning that their second season is not as good as their first.  An argument can certainly be made that the FOX musical mega-hit has suffered from that ailment, but the network is throwing so much weight behind the series that the show will inevitably garner a second Emmy nod for Best Comedy (despite its more dramatic overtones).

Modern Family - Like Glee, last year's Emmy champ has also suffered from "sophomoritis."  Despite that, the show has become the anchor of ABC's Wednesday nights and its entire cast has been hailed over and over again (winning this year's SAG Award for Best Ensemble over Glee).  It will be assured of a nomination come July.

30 Rock - NBC's awards darling won this award 3 years in a row and garnered a nod last year (for a generally considered also-ran fourth season).  Despite losing to Modern Family, the show stepped up its game for its fifth season and is still considered by many critics to be one of the smartest sitcoms on Television.  It has become a staple of the category.

FAVORITES

The Big Bang Theory - The CBS hit made a bold move to Thursdays and won the ratings battle (Thanks in large part to last year's Emmy win for star Jim Parsons!).  The show could find itself getting its first nomination in the top category for a much-lauded fourth season.

Hot In Cleveland - TV Land's first original scripted series is a throwback to the nostalgic multi-camera, live-audience sitcom.  It is bolstered by a industry-beloved cast (including the phenomenal Betty White!) and a massive awards campaign behind it from the cable network.

The Office - With the departure of star Steve Carell, the NBC hit had a creative resurgence this year that many critics felt was long overdue.  The show could be honored with a nod (and a potential win!) just for Carell's last episode alone.

POSSIBLES

The Big C - The new Showtime "dramedy" surprised many by garnering a Golden Globe nomination for Best Comedy Series earlier this year.  The strength of star Laura Linney's performance could garner the show a nomination in the top category (much like Nurse Jackie got last year!).

Community - The NBC show's exclusion from the category last year riled a few pundits and they opined that the series' second season is quite Emmy-worthy (despite its quirky/subversive style).  But with 30 Rock and The Office getting more campaign support from the network (not all, just more), it is unlikely NBC can pull off a hat-trick and dominate the category (like they once did in the 1980s and early '90s).

Nurse Jackie - Showtime's dark and serio-comic series received a Best Comedy Series nod last year mainly because of the strength of star Edie Falco (who won the Best Actress award).  The show could repeat but it faces tough competition from its own network (see The Big C).

Parks and Recreation - NBC's plucky mockumentary-style series has become a critical favorite and had a creative resurgence with the addition of Rob Lowe to the cast.  While many critics would love to see this series make it all the way to the Winner's Circle on Emmy night, the network is throwing more support behind more perennial favorites (like 30 Rock and The Office).

LONG SHOTS

Chuck, NBC; Cougar Town, ABC; Eastbound & Down, HBO; Entourage, HBO; Episodes, Showtime; How I Met Your Mother, CBS; It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, F/X; The Middle, ABC; Raising Hope, FOX; Weeds, Showtime

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

CATEGORY BREAKDOWN - Previous winners Jim Parsons and Alec Baldwin are shoo-ins to get nominated and Steve Carell's swan song season is guaranteed to garner him a nod.  Cable stars Thomas Jane and Matt LeBlanc are favorites with the critics and with Tony Shalhoub and Larry David out of the race this year, spots have opened up.  Matthew Morrison could ride the success of his show to a second nod, but he (and Jane and LeBlanc) face tough competition from newcomers Lucas Neff and Rob Lowe (who is submitting himself as a lead!) and previous non-nominees David Duchovny and Joel McHale.  And Charlie Sheen missed the deadline to submit (but he could get "written-in" if the voters are so inclined!).

FOR SURES

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock; Steve Carell, The Office; Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

FAVORITES

Thomas Jane, Hung; Joel McHale, Community; Matthew Morrison, Glee

POSSIBLES

Louis C. K., Louie; David Duchovny, Californication; Matt LeBlanc, Episodes; Rob Lowe, Parks and Recreation

LONG SHOTS

Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory; Zachary Levi, Chuck; Danny McBride, Eastbound & Down; Lucas Neff, Raising Hope; Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

CATEGORY BREAKDOWN - Showtime stars have seemed to dominate this category recently and it is unlikely that will end anytime soon.  Laura Linney is riding high from a Golden Globe win and last year's Emmy champ Edie Falco is likely to join her on the list of nominees.  Tina Fey is one of the most respected comedic actresses around and is assured a fifth nod (she won back in 2008!).  Toni Collette (another Showtime star and 2009's winner) could muster a nomination even though her show was recently axed by the cable network.  Last year's newcomer-nominees Lea Michele and Amy Poehler remain in position to repeat with respective nominations, that is unless Courtney Cox or Mary-Louise Parker can get similar (and even more) support from their respective networks.  And let's not forget the highly respected and much-lauded newcomers Melissa McCarthy and Martha Plimpton.

FOR SURES

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie; Tina Fey, 30 Rock; Laura Linney, The Big C

FAVORITES

Toni Collette, United States of Tara; Lea Michele, Glee; Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

POSSIBLES

Courtney Cox, Cougar Town; Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly; Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds; Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope

LONG SHOTS

Marcia Cross, Desperate Housewives; Kaley Cuoco, The Big Bang Theory; Teri Hatcher, Desperate Housewives; Patricia Heaton, The Middle; Felicity Huffman, Desperate Housewives

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

CATEGORY BREAKDOWN - Chris Colfer has had one of the best years on his show and the most character growth (he was rewarded with a Golden Globe for his effort).  Ty Burrell and Eric Stonestreet (last year's winner) are assured nominations as they usually stand out in their show's impressive cast.  Their co-stars Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ed O'Neill, while not as over-the-top memorable, certainly could earn nods for their work.  Then there is Neil Patrick Harris, who is the category's favorite perennial nominee.  While this would polish off the category's six spots, there is competition in the form of Jon Cryer, Nick Offerman and Rainn Wilson.  And don't count out past winner Jeremy Piven!

FOR SURES

Ty Burrell, Modern Family; Chris Colfer, Glee; Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

FAVORITES

Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family; Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother; Ed O'Neill, Modern Family

POSSIBLES

Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men; Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation; Jeremy Piven, Entourage; Rainn Wilson, The Office

LONG SHOTS

Garrett Dillahunt, Raising Hope; Ed Helms, The Office; Tracy Morgan, 30 Rock; Mike O'Malley, Glee; Danny Pudi, Community

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

CATEGORY BREAKDOWN - Last year's champ Jane Lynch is most assured to get a nomination (thanks to her Golden Globe win earlier this year!).  Betty White's career resurgence has made her a favorite with many industry voters (as her SAG win proved).  Sofia Vergara has received praise (even from her own co-stars!) and her colleague Julie Bowen also has a strong chance of making her way onto the nominations' list.  Perennial favorite Jane Krakowski is always welcome at any awards show and Kristen Wiig is the most beloved cast member of the long-running variety series (having been nominated twice before).  Betty White's co-stars made a bold move and decided to submit themselves in the Supporting category (as opposed to the Lead), so Wendie Malick or Jane Leeves could find they have nominations.  Then there are previous nominees Jenna Fischer and Holland Taylor who may get their respective chances.  Quite frankly, with Lynch, White and Vergara (and possibly Bowen) as locks, the rest of the category is up in the air!

FOR SURES

Jane Lynch, Glee; Sofia Vergara, Modern Family; Betty White, Hot In Cleveland

FAVORITES

Julie Bowen, Modern Family; Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock; Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live

POSSIBLES

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory; Wendie Malick, Hot In Cleveland; Jane Leeves, Hot In Cleveland; Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men

LONG SHOTS

Valerie Bertinelli, Hot In Cleveland; Jenna Fischer, The Office; Tamsin Greig, Episodes; Swoosie Kurtz, Mike & Molly; Merrit Weaver, Nurse Jackie

We will know the answer to the "Who will be Nominated?" question come July 14 when the Emmy nominations are revealed.  Soon after that, I will have my predictions as to who will win!  Next Week, 10 FAVORITES returns and goes (back) to Broadway!