IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Emmy Predictions

This Sunday night, the 2012 Primetime Emmy Awards will be given out in a ceremony hosted by Jimmy Kimmel on ABC.  So with the ballots in and the nominees readying themselves for Sunday's festivities, it is time for me to give my predictions in the major categories.  This year, I'll only deal with the Drama and Comedy Series categories as I believe most of the other major categories (Variety, Reality, etc.) are just too predictable (I mean, does anyone really think The Daily Show won't win Best Variety Series for a tenth year in a row!?!?!).

DRAMAS

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Nominees: Boardwalk Empire (HBO), Breaking Bad (AMC), Downton Abbey (PBS), Game of Thrones (HBO), Homeland (Showtime), Mad Men (AMC)

Will Win: Last year, cable favorite Mad Men tied a record with 3 now legendary NBC shows (Hill Street Blues, L.A. Law and The West Wing) by winning this category for a fourth time.  Most critics believe if any show can break the record, its Mad Men.  Their fifth season was one of the most anticipated shows of the Spring schedule and their season was filled with jaw-dropping moments.  And while some may say other shows are stepping up their game, those same people were singing the same tune last year and Mad Men still won.

Should Win: This is tough for me.  While I believe Mad Men will break the record, I would love to see one of two other shows claim the prize.  Showtime's Homeland is smartly written and very timely for this day and age (plus it won the Golden Globe earlier this year!); and Downton Abbey is also smartly written (though about a completely different world than Homeland's!) and brilliantly acted (6 actors are nominated this year for their work!).  Both shows are very deserving of the top prize and have the buzz to push Mad Men off the pedestal (or at least try!).

Dark Horse: But one other show has more buzz going for it than Homeland and Downton Abbey put together, and that is the critically lauded fourth season of Breaking Bad.  If Mad Men's creator Matthew Weiner has left a bad taste in Hollywood's mouth because of his negotiation antics with AMC, Emmy voters could choose to reward the other AMC show nominated and deny Weiner his record-breaking trophy.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Nominees: Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey (PBS); Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire (HBO); Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad (AMC); Michael C. Hall, Dexter (Showtime); John Hamm, Mad Men (AMC); Damian Lewis, Homeland (Showtime)

Will & Should Win: He's won the three other times he was nominated and he gave again a chilling performance in his show's fourth season.  Let's face it, this category belongs to Bryan Cranston!

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Nominees: Kathy Bates, Harry's Law (NBC); Glenn Close, Damages (DirecTV); Claire Danes, Homeland (Showtime); Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey (PBS); Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife (CBS); Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men (AMC)

Will & Should Win: This was another tough category for me.  But Golden Globe winner Claire Danes plays one of the most intriguing characters on Dramatic TV in recent memory.  As a CIA Agent with severe bipolar disorder, Danes' Carrie Mathison does things that most people won't love her for but does them "in the service of her country."  Danes (who won an Emmy two years ago for the HBO movie Temple Grandin) acts with such nuance that you find her character more interesting rather than pathetic.

Don't Count Her Out: If there is one person who can beat Danes, its last year's champ Julianna Margulies.  In her episode submission, Margulies gives one of the best performances she has done on her series The Good Wife (which shamefully was shut out of the Best Drama Series category!).  If Emmy voters find Danes' character too unlikable, they may want to reward Margulies for the second year in a row.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Nominees: Jim Carter, Downton Abbey (PBS); Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey (PBS); Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (HBO); Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad (AMC); Jared Harris, Mad Men (AMC); Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad (AMC)

Will Win: Giancarlo Esposito's work as a ruthless villain on Breaking Bad's fourth season garnered him praise from every TV critic everywhere.  He is the definite front-runner in this category.

Should Win: Last year, I said Game of Thrones' Peter Dinklage "should win" this category and he ended up taking the trophy home.  Dinklage's character is extremely popular on the fan hit (so much so, fans wanted him to submit in the Lead Actor category!).  It is possible that fan love can bring the well-liked character actor a second Emmy win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Nominees: Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (CBS); Joanne Froggat, Downton Abbey (PBS); Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad (AMC); Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (AMC); Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife (CBS); Dame Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PBS)

Will Win: No actor from Mad Men has yet to claim an acting win (isn't that shocking?!?).  But Christina Hendricks' Joan Harris did some amazing (and surprising!) things to make partner at the Sterling-Cooper Ad Agency this season and Hendricks played each moment with a much-lauded steely cool demeanor.  If one actor from Mad Men can win an Emmy this year, my money is on this beauty.

Should Win: There really is nothing like a Dame!  Maggie Smith is utterly brilliant as Downton Abbey's Dowager Countess (she won an Emmy last year!) and there is truly no one like her.

Dark Horse: Breaking Bad garnered more praise and more Emmy nominations for its fourth season and Anna Gunn was a big part of all that praise.  With Cranston and Esposito locks in their categories, Emmy voters may want to reward Gunn and let the show pull off a "threesome."

COMEDIES

BEST COMEDY SERIES

Nominees: The Big Bang Theory (CBS), Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO), Girls (HBO), Modern Family (ABC), 30 Rock (NBC), Veep (HBO)

Will Win: Though I am of the opinion the show has lost some of its edge (and I may be the only one!), ABC's Modern Family will pull off a third win this Sunday.

Should Win: The Sitcom I believed this season really deserved to win this category is not even nominated (NBC's Parks & Recreation). Therefore, I have to shift all my support to the other show I think has earned this award (though this last season was not its best!) and that is CBS' hilarious The Big Bang Theory.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock (NBC); Don Cheadle, House of Lies (Showtime); Louis C. K., Louie (F/X); Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men (CBS); Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO); Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Will Win: Louis C. K. has become more popular (and more lauded) thanks to his work on his self-titled F/X series.  Even though he plays himself (or a version of himself!), his episode submission ("Duckling") is an hour-long giving voters more of him to see than his fellow nominees.  Plus he goes to the Mid-East on a USO tour in the episode, politics is in this election year!
Should Win: If any actor deserves a win for playing himself on a show, it is Larry David.  He's been nominated for Curb Your Enthusiasm several times now and still has no award to show for it.  Maybe that's why the real George Costanza is so irascible!
Don't Count Him Out: Jim Parsons is the reigning champ in this category (having won the last two years in a row!) and his episode submission is a good one.  Next to Alec Baldwin, he is the most recognizable nominee (which, for some Emmy voters, means most deserving!).

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Zooey Deschanel, New Girl (FOX); Lena Dunham, Girls (HBO); Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie (Showtime); Tina Fey, 30 Rock (NBC); Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (HBO); Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly (CBS); Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation (NBC)
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus is beloved by the Emmys.  She has won Supporting Actress (for Seinfeld) and Lead Actress (for The New Adventures of Old Christine).  And this nomination (her 13th!) ties her with TV Comedy legend Lucille Ball.  Plus, Veep is nominated for Best Comedy Series and that is always a plus (it worked for Edie Falco two years ago!).
Should Win: TV's new "It Girl" of last season was really the New Girl.  Zooey Deschanel brought her adorkable self into audiences hearts and helped FOX rebuild their Sitcom status (Tuesdays this Fall on FOX is centered around New Girl instead of Glee!).
Don't Count Her Out: Even though her series is shy of Best Comedy Series nod (shame on you Emmy voters!), Amy Poehler is a heavy favorite going into Sunday night.  She had a great year on her show (her character Leslie Knope ran for a higher office) and fans of her (dating back to her SNL days!) feel she is truly deserving of her first acting Emmy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Ty Burrell, Modern Family (ABC); Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family (ABC); Max Greenfield, New Girl (FOX); Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Ed O'Neill, Modern Family (ABC); Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family (ABC)
Will Win: Does it really matter?  It's going to be one of the guys from Modern Family!  Pick one!  If the Emmys are in a rut, they'll reward Burrell or Stonestreet for a second time.  If not, Ferguson or O'Neill could reap the benefits.  If I had to choose (which I guess I do!), Burrell's role is showier while O'Neill is the most deserving (thanks to his years in the business!).  I guess I'd give the edge to Burrell.
Should Win: Without Parks & Rec's Nick Offerman or Community's Danny Pudi or even Glee's Chris Colfer, my hopes for beating the Modern Family juggernaut lie with New Girl's Max Greenfield who has delighted many critics with his slutty-yet-nerdy-and-even-lovable Schmidt.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory (CBS); Julie Bowen, Modern Family (ABC); Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives (ABC); Sofia Vergara, Modern Family (ABC); Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie (Showtime); Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Will Win: With her final season on the late-night Variety series, Kristen Wiig earned her fourth (and possibly final) acting Emmy nomination.  She has been an integral part of the SNL cast over most of the last decade and now embarking on a film career (which earned her an Oscar nod for co-writing Bridesmaids earlier this year!).  An Emmy would be the cherry on the sundae, so-to-speak.
Should Win: Mayim Bialik has been a welcomed and brilliant addition to The Big Bang Theory cast.  Her Amy Farrah-Fowler is hilarious in her need for affection from Sheldon or her "slight" stalking of BFF Penny.  It would be nice to see Blossom reap an Emmy.
Dark Horse: While Wiig left SNL, Kathryn Joosten left this earth.  Joosten, who had won two Guest Actress Emmys for playing crotchety neighbor Mrs. McCluskey, submitted the Desperate Housewives finale in which her character passed away from cancer.  Less than a month after the finale aired, Joosten herself lost her battle with the disease.  Joosten was a beloved member of the Hollywood community and a posthumous Emmy could show just how much.

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2012 Emmy Nominations

Today I thought I would share some of my initial reactions and thoughts to yesterday morning's Emmy Nominations for 2012. So let's get to it:

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Boardwalk Empire, Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, Mad Men
Though I'm surprised that CBS' The Good Wife got eked out of the running, it is in no way a shocker that Cable is dominating this category. So PBS will serve as this category's lone Broadcast network vying for the top prize this year.

BEST COMEDY SERIES

The Big Bang Theory, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Girls, Modern Family, 30 Rock, Veep
The biggest shocker here is that NBC's Parks & Recreation, which had one of the funniest seasons of any sitcom this year, was nudged off the list by HBO's triumvirate of Spring hits: returning fave Curb Your Enthusiasm and new critical favorites Girls and Veep. The other three nominees (Modern Family, The Big Bang Theory and 30 Rock) were predicted on every pundits' list.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

Kathy Bates, Harry's Law; Glenn Close, Damages; Claire Danes, Homeland; Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey; Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife; Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Mostly the usual suspects ended up here. Kathy Bates is kind of a surprise as her series was cancelled by NBC back in May (which is never really a good thing in Emmy's eyes!). As far as snubs go, Sons of Anarchy's Katey Sagal and Revenge's Madeleine Stowe had a lot of fan love behind them, but Emmys tend to ignore what the fans want. As expected, this race will end up as a showdown between Golden Globe winner Claire Danes and last year's Emmy champ Julianna Margulies.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey; Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire; Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad; Michael C. Hall, Dexter; John Hamm, Mad Men; Damian Lewis, Homeland
It looks like Hugh Laurie has been replaced by Hugh Bonneville. Bonneville was definitely in the running for his steely reserved role on PBS' lauded series. And Laurie was a long shot for his swan song season of the FOX medical drama. As for the other nominees, they were pretty much as predicted. But why don't we save everyone the trouble and give Bryan Cranston his fourth Emmy Award now?

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl; Lena Dunham, Girls; Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie; Tina Fey, 30 Rock; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep; Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly; Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation
Seven nominees!?!?! And all seven ladies extremely deserving on their respective shows. Poehler, Louis-Dreyfus and Fey were pretty much locks for nominations. Deschanel and Dunham have their respective networks campaigning vigorously for them. And previous winners Falco and McCarthy want to ensure their wins were not flukes. In the snub list (though many of them shouldn't be surprised!) include: Laura Dern, Laura Linney, Martha Plimpton, Lea Michele, Mary Louise Parker, Kat Dennings, Kaley Cuoco and Felicity Huffman.

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock; Don Cheadle, House of Lies; Louis C.K., Louie; Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men; Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm; Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

No surprise that Baldwin, David and Parsons got nominated. As for Louis C.K., though his series got snubbed in the Comedy Series category, he was a favorite for a nod this year (having been nominated last year!). Though House of Lies was not beloved by the critics, Cheadle's performance was. The big shocker here is that Jon Cryer, now submitting himself in the Lead Actor category, got a nod despite his once #1 show's sagging ratings (seriously, Emmy voters still watch Two and a Half Men?!?!).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife; Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey; Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad; Christina Hendricks, Mad Men; Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife; Dame Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
This is the Dame's category! Maggie Smith, who won Supporting Actress in a Miniseries last year for the show's first season, is the presumed frontrunner in this category. Previous winner Archie Panjabi and previous nominees Christine Baranski and Christina Hendricks were definite locks for a nod each. The two surprises in this category are Smith's co-star Joanne Froggatt (for her strong portrayal of the head housemaid) and Breaking Bad's Anna Gunn, who critics have loved for years but has never received Emmy love until now. Unfortunately, that left out the likes of Boardwalk Empire's phenomenal Kelly MacDonald and Smash's Anjelica Huston for nominations that in any other year they might have received.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA

Jim Carter, Downton Abbey; Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey; Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones; Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad; Jared Harris, Mad Men; Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
No shocker that previous winners Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage scored nods for their work again. And Giancarlo Esposito got some of the best reviews of any actor on TV last year for Breaking Bad's fourth season, so he was a lock. The surprises here are for Jared Harris' nod for his shocking season on Mad Men (in place of his usually more loved co-star John Slattery!) and Downton Abbey's double nods for British character actors Jim Carter and Brendan Coyle. It seems like Breaking Bad and Downton Abbey are the Dramas that will give Mad Men a run for their money this year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory; Julie Bowen, Modern Family; Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives; Sofia Vergara, Modern Family; Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie; Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
With Jane Lynch, Betty White and Jane Krakowski falling off the radar in this category, slots became wide open this year. Kathryn Joosten's death in May ensured her the "venerable veteran" spot in this category over the likes of White and Cloris Leachman. But the greatest surprises were the nods for critical favorites Mayim Bialik and Merritt Wever (of The Big Bang Theory and Nurse Jackie, respectively). They have gotten praise from critics for the past few years but hadn't received well-deserved Emmy nods until now. Modern Family's Sofia Vergara and Julie Bowen were both definite nods this year (the latter having won this award last year). And Kristen Wiig's final year on SNL was full of laughs and praise for her work, so she was a lock as well.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY

Ty Burrell, Modern Family; Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family; Max Greenfield, New Girl; Bill Hader,

Saturday Night Live; Ed O'Neill, Modern Family; Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Should one show dominate an entire category? While the men of Modern Family are very deserving, with all four of them submitted in this category (and the seemingly enduring love Emmy seems to have for the show) means that equally deserving men from other shows get snubbed (see Neil Patrick Harris, Nick Offerman, Danny Pudi, Chris Colfer, Simon Helberg or many many more!). The other two spots however went to surprising (yet welcomed) choices. New Girl's Max Greenfield has made his character a popular favorite with critics and Bill Hader has become an integral member of the SNL cast. Maybe one of these two could defeat the Modern Family juggernaut (but that's a very unlikely maybe!).


Tonight's post is dedicated to the Victims of the shooting in Aurora, Colorado and their families. Let us keep them in our thoughts as we remember that all they wanted to do was enjoy a much-anticipated movie and were subjected to a horrific tragedy. Do not let the act of one madman spoil the things we sometimes take for granted in this world including enjoying the simple pleasures of life (like a Film or a TV Show).

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: Same Old, Same Old...

Next week, the 2012 Emmy nominations will be announced (Thursday, July 19th at 5:30AM PST to be exact).  And the media will be going crazy trying to give their last minute predictions.  When you look at the potential crop of nominees (particularly for the top two prizes!), it does whittle itself down to the usual suspects with a few new faces in the mix.  Could we be in store for more repeat victories?  Will Mad Men break the record and win a fifth consecutive Best Drama Series Emmy?  Can any Comedy stop Modern Family from dominating the categories?  If you look around the Internet, the virtual "consensus" (with very few people disagreeing) is that this year's Emmy winners may not differ from last year's Awards...and the year before that.  Maybe the question we should be asking is: Are the Emmys in a rut?

The thing about Television and the Emmy Awards is that unlike the Oscars or the Tonys (where there's a different winner every year), the shows that win tend to stay on the radar with the Academy.  That's how Hill Street Blues was able to make that record that L.A. Law and The West Wing tied and that Mad Men is now trying to surpass.  But can Mad Men do it?  To be honest, the series is vulnerable in this category.  It's fifth season premiered in March after a long behind-the-scenes battle that left a bad mojo in the Hollywood air regarding creator Matt Weiner.  And critically speaking, while the season had its standout moments (a resignation, a "prostitution," a suicide and Rory Gilmore's boobs!), most agree that it did not have the caliber of episodes that the last four Emmy-winning seasons did.  To be fair, last year, Mad Men was considered vulnerable to a potential loss at the hands of HBO's Boardwalk Empire and yet still prevailed.  This year, the field is more open.  In addition to Boardwalk Empire, HBO's Game of Thrones is hoping to capitalize on their surprise Emmy nod last year and the fervent love of its fans.  Then there is Showtime.  While most critics agree that Dexter is down for the count in this category after many a disjointed season, the network's new critical darling is the terrorist-themed Homeland (which managed to win the Golden Globe for Best Drama Series back in January).  And pay-cable station Starz wants to get into the running, campaigning heavily for its Kelsey Grammer-led Boss despite lackluster ratings and reviews.  Also, Mad Men's Emmy dreams may be dashed from within their own backyard.  AMC has managed to garner Best Drama nods for Breaking Bad in the past and, after a yearlong hiatus, it returned with what many said was its best season yet.  And AMC is throwing some Emmy campaigning towards their "genre" show: the zombie-themed The Walking Dead (AMC possibly making up for the fact that the network's budget cuts led to the resignation of original showrunner Frank Darabont!).  What you notice about the potential spoilers to Mad Men's party are that (like Mad Men) they come from the world of cable.  Broadcast TV has not had a Best Drama Emmy win since FOX's 24 back in 2007 (the last Drama to win before Mad Men's dominance).  As far as the pundits go, there are only two Broadcast Dramas that even have a chance of making it into the Emmy race (and one that just might...a very limited might).  CBS' The Good Wife is still one of the best shows (if not the best) on the major networks and it definitely gets Emmy love (especially in the acting categories).  While its third season was not on the exact same level as the previous two, it still was riveting Dramatic Television.  And PBS may make its way into the Best Drama race for the first time since 1988.  With the British hit Downton Abbey (which dominated the Miniseries categories last year for its first season) now maneuvering itself into the Drama categories, expect Emmys to take notice.  NBC does have hopes for its highly-anticipated-yet-not-well-loved Musical-Drama series Smash to get into the fold, but its chances are extremely remote.  ABC hopes that fan love could bring Emmy attention to either Once Upon a Time or Revenge, but with all the cable offerings, a nod for either is highly doubtful.  All other Drama shows (including the medically-themed Grey's Anatomy and the last season of House M.D.) will be left out in the cold.  Expect cable to be dominating this category for at least the next five years whether Mad Men wins or not!

Guaranteed a Nomination: Mad Men
Definitely in the Running: Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Homeland
On the Radar: Boardwalk Empire, Game of Thrones, The Good Wife
Long Shots: Boss, Dexter, Grey's Anatomy, House M.D., Once Upon a Time, Revenge, Smash, The Walking Dead

In the Comedy Series race, we have a similar yet different story.  Modern Family is a juggernaut that just doesn't seem to be beatable.  The ABC hit is still a critical darling (despite a few missteps) and does really well in its Wednesday time slot (even in reruns!).  Most pundits are hard press to think of a show that can take it down...but they are out there and they are circling Modern Family like vultures.  The previous tenant of the Best Comedy frontrunner spot (before Modern Family came along) was NBC's 30 Rock (which won 3 years in row).  Tina Fey's backstage sitcom managed to put out some of its funniest episodes this year and officially announced that next season will be its last.  Emmy will not want to forget one of their staples.  NBC's other comedy that had a spectacular season was Parks and Recreation.  The Amy Poehler-led mockumentary-styled series has great fans with both audiences and critics alike.  It is positioning itself to be a top contender.  And CBS will not be denied with its most popular (critically-wise) sitcom: The Big Bang Theory.  The show is definitely on the radar as lead Jim Parsons has managed to win two Emmys for his role as Dr. Sheldon Cooper.  And HBO (not to be left out of the party!) saw the return of their extremely popular Curb Your Enthusiasm after a yearlong hiatus.  Larry David and company were critically hailed as very refreshing and just as funny as in previous years.  FX would love for its critically popular series Louie to garner top praise from Emmy.  After receiving a Best Actor nod last year for Louis C.K., the cable network is throwing itself into a campaign.  But four new female-led Comedies could make their way into to the race.  HBO scored many fans with three new shows this season (all starring potential Best Actress nominees): Enlightened (starring Golden Globe winner Laura Dern), Girls (created and starring the breakout star Lena Dunham) and Veep (starring the ever-popular Emmy-winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus).  Each of them could be a dark horse in the race should one be lucky enough to be nominated.  And FOX had some great success with their adorkable new star of their new show titled New Girl.  Zooey Deschanel has won many fans and critics just love her as the quirky teacher living (platonically) with 3 guys.  And FOX is no stranger to popularity.  However, Glee's extremely disjointed third season may have "jumped the shark" and turned Emmy voters away from it (putting the once popular hit into the long shot category).  And NBC's fan-beloved-yet-ratings-challenged Community may be deserving of a nomination, but after many a backstage scuffle that leaked to the public resulting in the firing of creator Dan Harmon and NBC's choice to move the show to the "dead zone" that is Friday come the fall, the show may join network cohort The Office in long shot territory.  The Office suffered a major blow thanks to last year's exit of original lead Steve Carell.  Emmy may chose to ignore the once loved series (the show won Best Comedy Series back in 2006!).  And Showtime's critically-acclaimed female-led shows, particularly The Big C and Nurse Jackie, are also slowly falling off the Emmy radar (even though both Laura Linney and Edie Falco garnered Best Actress nods last year!).  All this said, it looks like Modern Family may be adding a third Best Comedy win to their "mantle."

Guaranteed a Nomination: Modern Family
Definitely in the Running: 30 Rock, The Big Bang Theory, Parks and Recreation
On the Radar: Curb Your Enthusiasm, Enlightened, Girls, Louie, New Girl, Veep
Long Shots: The Big C, Community, Glee, Nurse Jackie, The Office

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2011 Emmy Award Predictions - Part II: Drama

And now, it is time for more 2011 Emmy Predictions.  Today, let's comb through the Drama categories!

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Boardwalk Empire (HBO), Dexter (Showtime), Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV), Game of Thrones (HBO), The Good Wife (CBS), Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Three-time winner Mad Men is trying for a fourth consecutive win (only Hill Street Blues and The West Wing have had four consecutive* Best Drama Series wins!); Showtime's Dexter had a less-than-stellar fourth season, but is still loved by audiences; Critical favorite Friday Night Lights ended it's rocky five-year run (on cable's DirecTV before being rerun on NBC!) and finally garnered one of the top nods; HBO's newcomers Boardwalk Empire and Game of Thrones hit it off with both critics and fans, so Emmy voters took notice; And CBS' legal drama The Good Wife wowed people with an emotionally charged second season and represents the broadcast networks among the wealth of cable favorites.
Will Win: Mad Men had a very well-received fourth season (and is pulling out all the stops in its ad campaigns!), so it is very likely to join Hill Street Blues, The West Wing and L.A. Law in the pantheon of Emmy's Best Dramas.
Should Win: I have said this before I believe, so I'll say it again: The Good Wife is the best show on Television currently and deserves every award in can receive.
Dark Horse: HBO wooed Martin Scorsese into directing (and producing!) the buzzworthy pilot of Boardwalk Empire, so they will do all they can to stop Mad Men's winning streak. They already won the Golden Globe earlier this year!
*=L.A. Law also had four Best Drama Series wins, but not consecutively.  Interestingly enough, all three shows (Hill Street Blues, L.A. Law and The West Wing) were broadcast on NBC!

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Kathy Bates, Harry's Law (NBC); Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV); Mireille Enos, The Killing (AMC); Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (NBC); Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife (CBS); Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Last year's winner Kyra Sedgwick beat out presumed front-runner Julianna Margulies, and Margulies again is near the top of every pundits' list to take the award this year; Elisabeth Moss was bumped up to Lead Actress from last year with stirring episodes and storylines; Connie Britton enjoyed her first nod last year and the critics would love to see her rewarded for the show's emotional last season; Oscar-winner Kathy Bates was a shoo-in to get nominated, despite her show garnering mixed reviews from critics and audiences; Character actress Mireille Enos gives a quiet yet resonant performance as a detective investigating a murder on AMC's The Killing; And Mariska Hargitay (who won this award back in 2006!) has become the category's perennial nominee (quite possibly over more deserving candidates, but I digress!).
Will AND Should Win: I've already stated my love for The Good Wife and Julianna Margulies has picked an emotionally packed episode to submit to Emmy voters. Victory shall be hers!
Dark Horse: Elisabeth Moss also is submitting a critically acclaimed (and emotionally powerful!) episode of Mad Men, and she could very well keep Margulies from the winner's podium (just like Kyra Sedgwick did last year!).

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire (HBO); Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV); Michael C. Hall, Dexter (Showtime); John Hamm, Mad Men (AMC); Hugh Laurie, House M.D. (FOX); Timothy Olyphant, Justified (F/X)

Quick Overview: With three-time previous winner Bryan Cranston ineligible this year, four of last years nominees are vying for this prize along with two category newcomers: John Hamm has picked a stellar episode (the same episode Elisabeth Moss picked!) to submit to Emmy voters; Kyle Chandler is banking on his show's emotional series finale to win it for him; Both Hugh Laurie and Michael C. Hall may play unlikable or morally polarizing characters, but they picked jaw-dropping episodes that could gain (or lose!) them support; Timothy Olyphant picked his show's second season finale on his first nomination for his complex role of a Southern lawman; And Golden Globe winner Steve Buscemi has name recognition and the full support of HBO behind him for this extremely tough category.
Will AND Should Win: It is said John Hamm has waited three long years to be rewarded for playing the snake-like ad man Don Draper and with Cranston ineligible, this may be Hamm's time to finally reap some praise.
Dark Horse: Steve Buscemi won both the Golden Globe and the SAG Award for his work as tough gangster Nucky Johnston, and Emmy voters may use those award precursors as signs from above.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (CBS); Michelle Forbes, The Killing (AMC); Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (AMC); Kelly MacDonald, Boardwalk Empire (HBO); Margo Martindale, Justified (F/X); Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife (CBS)
Quick Overview: Pundits have stated that this is the category that stumps them every year! Last year's winner Archie Panjabi was a pleasant surprise and The Good Wife's writers stepped up her game for the show's second season; Her co-star Christine Baranski is always an Emmy favorite no matter what she does; Christina Hendricks is still extremely well-liked among Mad Men's Sterling-Cooper Ad Agency; Character actress Margo Martindale played the villain perfectly on F/X's Justified; Longtime TV actress Michelle Forbes (Star Trek: The Next Generation, True Blood) has finally received an Emmy nod for her work as the murder victim's distraught mother on The Killing; And previous Emmy-winner Kelly MacDonald (for the TV Movie The Girl In the Cafe) is the best reviewed actor/actress on HBO's new hit.
Will Win: Emmys love to reward character actors in truly over-the-top performances (see Jane Lynch or Doris Roberts), so Margo Martindale may ride her character's villainy all the way to an Emmy win.
Should Win: Archie Panjabi may have surprised people last year with her win, but her emotionally understated performance as the law firm's in-house investigator went to new levels this year.
Dark Horse: If Mad Men is indeed going to take the top prize (and quite possibly, Best Actor!), Emmy voters may want to reward Boardwalk Empire with something (besides director!) and so Kelly MacDonald (who was also part of the last Harry Potter movie this summer!) may receive the show's consolation prize.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age (TNT); Josh Charles, The Good Wife (CBS); Alan Cumming, The Good Wife (CBS); Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (HBO); Walton Goggins, Justified (F/X); John Slattery, Mad Men (AMC)

Quick Overview: Two of the men from The Good Wife (Josh Charles and Alan Cumming) submitted great episodes and their characters are indeed central to the show's biggest storylines; John Slattery now has his fourth nomination and has picked an episode that could get him the elusive prize; Andre Braugher was, as far as the critics were concerned, the best part of TNT's now-defunct Men of a Certain Age; And category newcomers (and well-respected character actors!) Peter Dinklage and Walton Goggins are riding their respective shows' critical acclaim to possible Emmy glory.
Will Win: Like his co-star John Hamm, this may very well finally be John Slattery's chance to call himself an Emmy winner.
Should Win: Peter Dinklage gave one of the finest performances on HBO's fantasy hit and his particular episode features one of his most touching and stirring monologues.
Dark Horse: The love for F/X's Justified may just stretch beyond Margo Martindale and onto Walton Goggins' reserved and understated performance (the same style he used on another F/X Emmy favorite: The Shield).

BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Cara Buono, Mad Men (AMC); Joan Cusack, Shameless (Showtime); Loretta Devine, Grey's Anatomy (ABC); Randee Heller, Mad Men (AMC); Mary McDonnell, The Closer (TNT); Julia Stiles, Dexter (Showtime); Alfre Woodard, True Blood (HBO)
Quick Overview: Yes, there are 7 nominees in this category AND all 7 actresses not only guested on one episode of their respective Dramas, they were all recurring roles on each show! But because of Emmy rules, they each picked one episode that best shows their roles during the season: Julia Stiles had a much-hyped and critically dynamic role as serial killer Dexter's assistant (who also was a former victim of the killer he was facing!); Joan Cusack played the agoraphobic love interest to William H. Macy's drunken single father; Mad Men's Cara Buono and Randee Heller were two of the Sterling-Cooper many secretaries that kept the office running; Mary McDonnell played an Internal Affairs Captain investigating the possible misconduct of star Kyra Sedgwick's character; Loretta Devine returned to Seattle Grace as the wife of the Chief of Surgery, this time struggling with early-onset Alzheimer's Disease; And awards favorite Alfre Woodard played the mother of the gay-psychic cook on the fan favorite True Blood.
Will Win: Though this category has usually gone to older actresses in the past (Ann-Margaret, Leslie Caron and Ellen Burstyn are among the more recent winners!), Julia Stiles has the buzz surrounding her (and a Golden Globe nod!) that puts her in the front-runner position in this category.
Should Win: True Blood is a "true" fan favorite and has never received any kind of Emmy love (beyond technical awards!), so Alfre Woodard has the kind of Emmy cache that would give Emmy voters an excuse to give the vampire series a major Emmy.
Dark Horse: Joan Cusack is also an awards favorite (two Oscar nods under her belt!) and her submitted episode is very critically acclaimed, so she could be the name called at the Creative Arts Emmys on Saturday, September 10 (where the Guest Actor/Actress awards are given out!).

BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Beau Bridges, Brothers & Sisters (ABC); Jeremy Davies, Justified (F/X); Bruce Dern, Big Love (HBO); Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife (CBS); Paul McCrane, Harry's Law (NBC); Robert Morse, Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Four awards veterans face-off with two well-liked character actors in this interesting category: Michael J. Fox gave a dynamic performance in the recurring role of a lawyer who keeps Julianna Margulies' character guessing; Veteran actors Bruce Dern, Beau Bridges and Robert Morse each played small recurring roles on their respective shows well enough to put them in this Emmy race; Paul McCrane plays the recurring role of prosecutor to Kathy Bates' outspoken defense attorney; And Jeremy Davies played the unlikable criminal lawman Timothy Olyphant dragged out into the woods in the F/X show's second season finale.
Will AND Should Win: Though I liked him better on the first episode he was on, Michael J. Fox chose the second episode on which he appeared and we found out more about his character's backstory and home life. Emmy voters may very well pick him because Michael J. Fox has proven he can play vulnerable extremely well (just watch an episode of Family Ties!).
Dark Horse: There are actually two potential spoilers! Paul McCrane chose an episode in which his character had a virtual meltdown in court followed by an emotional scene he shared with Oscar-winner Kathy Bates. Sometimes proximity to an awards pro rubs off (that, and the show was created by David E. Kelley who as written more Emmy-winning characters than any other writer!). Also, Jeremy Davies had an staggeringly powerful scene in which his slightly villainous character is getting tortured by star Timothy Olyphant. Emmy voters may want to reward an unlikable character who shows his terrified vulnerability.

TOMORROW!

Part III: The Miniseries & Variety Categories!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: The 2011 Emmy Nominations

Welcome to my new weekly column: IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS!  Each week, I want to share my thoughts and opinions on the things happening in Pop Culture and the Media.

Yesterday morning, the world of Primetime Television held its breath while Melissa McCarthy (of Mike & Molly) and Joshua Jackson (of Fringe) announced the 2011 Primetime Emmy Award Nominations.  There were several surprises, several disappointments and a long list of "the usual suspects."  So for this week's inaugural column, I am fortunate enough that it coincides with this joyous (and nail-biting) time for the TV world.  I want to talk about each of the 10 major categories (the 5 Drama categories and the 5 Comedy categories), what show or performer got the honor of a nomination and what show or performer will have to settle for cheering on colleagues at the Emmy Award ceremony on Sunday, September 18, when it will air on FOX with Glee's Emmy-winner Jane Lynch serving as hostess.

Let us begin with the Drama categories:

OUTSTANDING DRAMA
Boardwalk Empire, Dexter, Friday Night Lights, Game of Thrones, The Good Wife, Mad Men

• Expected: It was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Golden Globe winner Boardwalk Empire and 3-time Emmy champ Mad Men would make it's way into the mix.  And even though cable networks tend to dominate the category recently, CBS was not to be denied with its powerhouse legal drama The Good Wife (quite frankly the best show on Television, but I don't wish to sound biased!).  And while those three were most definite locks in the category, Showtime's gory and lauded Dexter was the most likely candidate for the fourth slot.
• Surprises: In recent years, it has been very rare that a network (Broadcast OR Cable!) can get two of its acclaimed shows into this category.  So HBO was doubly thrilled to see its genre-defying costume epic Game of Thrones alongside Boardwalk Empire among the contenders yesterday morning.  And many were pleasantly surprised to see that the NBC/DirectTV critical delight Friday Night Lights finally get some recognition in this category, albeit for its fifth (and final!) season.
• Snubs: There are just so many shows vying for six spots!  Apparently AMC could not pull off what HBO was able to as its two critically-acclaimed new shows The Killing and The Walking Dead did not join Mad Men on the list.  And three of the critics' favorite Dramas were not listed as FX's Justified, Showtime's Shameless and NBC's Parenthood were each nudged out of contention by more press-worthy fair (i.e. Good Wife or Bordwalk).  Also, it seems Game of Thrones is the only real genre-specific fan favorite that made its way into the mix as once again Fringe, Sons of Anarchy and True Blood were all denied a spot.  Then there are the categories previous nominees that have now (in one way or another) become virtual "also-rans:" In Treatment, Big Love, Rescue Me, House and Grey's Anatomy.  Plus, let's not forget the high-rated "Police Procedurals" (like NCIS, Criminal Minds, Blue Bloods, Bones, CSI and The Mentalist), which never really had a chance anyway!

OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law; Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights; Mireille Enos, The Killing; Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU; Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife; Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

• Expected: The Good Wife's Julianna Margulies won every pre-Emmy Award...last year.  At last year's Emmys, she was denied the prize by a sympathy bid for 5-time nominee Kyra Sedgwick (of The Closer).  So, Margulies "stepped up her game," so to speak and was assured a nod for the show's stellar second season.  And Mad Men's Elisabeth Moss was given more to do by the show's writers (therefore bumping her up from Supporting Actress to Lead!) and her powerful work in the episode "The Suitcase" (which is for sure to be her episode submission!) might just make her the one to beat (sorry Julianna!).  And Connie Britton, who was a surprise nominee last year, was a favorite to garner a second nod for FNL's poignant final season.
• Surprises: Even though she is Kathy Bates, her show was not universally loved.  So her inclusion is mostly a surprise.  And Mireille Enos' work on AMC's The Killing was much lauded, but it was not clear whether the category's tough competition would ace her out of a nod.  And previous winner Mariska Hargitay, while one of the best things about NBC's 12 year-old "procedural," was not on every pundits' short list for yet another nomination.
• Snubs: It is rare that the category's previous winner is not included among the next year's nominees (usually only when the previous winner was on a show that ended the year before!).  So Kyra Sedgwick's lack of a nomination is pretty much confirmation that her win last year was sympathy for not winning in prior years.  And for some reason, Emmy voters just have not taken to FX's gritty Sons of Anarchy and therefore refuse to reward this year's Golden Globe winner Katey Sagal with a nod.  There were also critical favorites like Emmy Rossum (of Showtime's Shameless) and Lauren Graham (from NBC's Parenthood) left out of the running.  And, not to mention, definite fan favorites (both named Anna, by the way) True Blood's Anna Paquin and Fringe's Anna Torv, both denied a shot.  And I'm not gonna discuss Mad Men's January Jones' almost laughable mistake in submitting herself in this category (it's called LEAD Actress, January!).

OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire; Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights; Michael C. Hall, Dexter; Jon Hamm, Mad Men; Hugh Laurie, House; Timothy Olyphant, Justified

• Expected: With Breaking Bad's Bryan Cranston ineligible this year, this award is now John Hamm's to lose.  The Mad Men star faces tough competition from previous nominee Michael C. Hall (who won last year's Golden Globe for his work on Dexter) and category newcomer Steve Buscemi (who won this year's Golden Globe for Boardwalk Empire).  And previous nominees Kyle Chandler and Hugh Laurie were both definite contenders to get in again.
• Surprise: The critics love Timothy Olyphant's work on FX's Justified, so his inclusion was most welcome.
• Snubs: Though Game of Thrones got a nod in the top category, Emmy voters failed to recognize the show's main star Sean Bean (maybe they saw the costume and thought it was another Lord of the Rings movie!).  Also, Shameless star (and Awards favorite) William H. Macy was excluded along with critical dynamo Peter Krause (of Parenthood).  Then there are previous nominees like Simon Baker (The Mentalist), Gabriel Byrne (In Treatment), Bill Paxton (Big Love) and Denis Leary (Rescue Me), all of whom were left off the list once again.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife; Michelle Forbes, The Killing; Christina Hendricks, Mad Men; Kelly MacDonald, Boardwalk Empire; Margo Martindale, Justified; Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife

• Expected: Previous winner Archie Panjabi and her Good Wife co-star Christine Baranski were definite locks to get nominated again.  And Mad Men's Christina Hendricks is still glowing in her "It Girl" status from last year, so her nod was for sure.  Then there is Kelly MacDonald who is the most critically lauded performer on the HBO ensemble hit (she also scored a Golden Globe nod!) and she is a serious contender to challenge Panjabi's second bid for a win.
• Surprises: Both The Killing's Michelle Forbes and Justified's Margo Martindale are very respected character actresses (I still remember Forbes' thrilling role on Star Trek: TNG as Ensign Ro!), so their respective nominations are making the critics smile from ear to ear.  Plus, a win for Martindale would probably make them do cartwheels!
• Snubs: HBO's trio: Debra Winger (In Treatment), Chloe Sevigny (Big Love) and Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones) were each on some pundits short list (at one time or another) yet failed to garner nominations.  And critical favorites like Monica Potter (Parenthood), Regina King (Southland) and Kiernan Shipka (Mad Men) were edged out of contention.  Plus, there were fan favorites (and long shots) like Lisa Edelstein (for her last season on House) or Sara Ramirez (for the much-hyped musical episode of Grey's Anatomy) or Sharon Gless (who was nominated last year for USA powerhouse Burn Notice), all of whom were overlooked.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age; Josh Charles, The Good Wife; Alan Cumming, The Good Wife; Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones; Walton Goggins, Justified; John Slattery, Mad Men

• Expected: Mad Men's John Slattery (who has been nominated 3 times before) has been the clear frontrunner for months now.  Andre Braugher (who has won 2 Emmys and garnered a nod last year for the TNT dramedy) is a definite favorite with critics (and quite possibly voters!).  Plus, The Good Wife has several contenders in this category, so getting two of its actors nominated (Josh Charles & Alan Cumming) was not a shock.
• Surprises: Justified is beloved by many critics and Walton Goggins could challenge Slattery for a win in the category.  And several fans were pleased to see the very respected character actor (and only American cast member of Game of Thrones!) Peter Dinklage in the mix.
• Snubs: The most notable omission (to fans and critics alike!) is Fringe's John Noble.  And while Good Wife garnered two nods, both Chris Noth and Matt Czuchry were left out in the cold, so to speak.  Hawaii Five-O's Scott Caan garnered a Golden Globe nomination, but he was considered a long-shot for an Emmy nod.  And it seems all of Boardwalk Empire's male ensemble have cancelled each other out and none of them got a nod (sorry in particular to Michael Shannon and Michael Stuhlbarg!)

And now, on with the Comedy: 

OUTSTANDING COMEDY
The Big Bang Theory, Glee, Modern Family, The Office, Parks and Recreation, 30 Rock

• Expected: As I said in a previous post, Glee, Modern Family and 30 Rock were each almost assured a nomination in this extremely competitive (and wide-ranging!) category (despite the first two had "Sophomore Slump" seasons and the latter is beginning to show its age!).  While I didn't include it in "the locks," The Office was a definite contender (particularly since it was Steve Carell's departing season!).  And out of all the other Comedy choices, CBS' The Big Bang Theory, was the definite front-runner for that fifth slot.
• Surprises: NBC pulled off a rare hat-trick and got a third nomination in the category for the very much liked Parks and Recreation.  Also, with NBC garnering 3 spots and ABC, FOX and CBS each getting one of their lauded shows in the mix, cable networks (i.e. Showtime) were knocked out of contention (more on that below!).
• Snubs: Showtime faves Nurse Jackie (nominated last year) and The Big C (which garnered a Golden Globe nod) were knocked out of contention in this seemingly anti-cable/pro-network Comedy category.  Another cable contender (that put on an aggressive Emmy campaign!) was TV Land's Hot In Cleveland (but maybe the campaign was too aggressive!).  FOX newcomer Raising Hope was also denied a spot (the spot that probably went to its powerhouse lead-in, Glee!).  And once again, NBC's Community and ABC's Cougar Town were not nominated and the critics (and fans!) are left scratching their heads.

OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie; Tina Fey, 30 Rock; Laura Linney, The Big C; Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly; Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope; Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

• Expected: It was most assured that Edie Falco (last year's winner) and Laura Linney (the Golden Globe champ) would get nominations for their respective Showtime dramedies.  And former SNL-turned-sitcom stars Tina Fey and Amy Poehler are beloved by many, so their nominations were pretty much locks.
• Surprises: Newcomers Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly) and Martha Plimpton (Raising Hope) are favorites of the critics and the fans.  Plus, McCarthy is enjoying many laurels for her scene-stealing role in the sleeper Summer Comedy hit Bridesmaids.  And Plimpton is a much respected actress dating back to her child/teen acting days in films like The Goonies and Parenthood.
• Snubs: Toni Collette won this category back in 2009 (for her stellar work on Showtime's United States of Tara), but the news of her show's cancellation must have aced her out of a nod this time around.  And Glee's Lea Michele (probably the most talented performer on Television!) was denied a second nomination despite being on the year's most popular show.  The Middle's Patricia Heaton (who won twice in the past for Everybody Loves Raymond) and The Big Bang Theory's Kaley Cuoco were edged out of contention.  And what does Courtney Cox have to do to get an Emmy nomination?  She NEVER got nominated during 10 years of Friends and was denied a nomination last year for Cougar Town.  Looks like history is destined to keep repeating itself.  Plus, previous nominees Mary-Louise Parker (of Weeds) and ALL of the Desperate Housewives (Teri Hatcher, Marcia Cross, Eva Longoria and past winner Felicity Huffman) are once again off the list of nominees.

OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock; Louis C.K., Louie; Steve Carell, The Office; Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory; Matt LeBlanc, Episodes; Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

• Expected: Last year's winner Jim Parsons and previous winner Alec Baldwin were definite locks in this category, as was Steve Carell, who is the one to beat for his final season on The Office (considering he has never won!).
• Surprises: Johnny Galecki is used to playing "the straight man" to Parsons and was finally rewarded with a nomination. Matt LeBlanc, who pretty much plays himself on Episodes, is a veteran of the category (having been nominated previously for HIS work on Friends!).  And stand-up Louis C.K. is a favorite with many critics and is considered very deserving of this recognition.
• Snubs: Glee's Matthew Morrison got nominated last year, but its possible that the scaling down of his character (there were some episodes where he pretty much only had one scene!) hurt his chances for a Lead nomination.  Critical Cable favorites Thomas Jane (of HBO's Hung) and David Duchovny (of Showtime's Californication) were once again denied a chance for the trophy.  And there is a long list of fan favorites that were left off the list this year: Danny McBride (Eastbound & Down), Joel McHale (Community), Zachary Levi (Chuck), Lucas Neff (Raising Hope), Jason Schwartzman (Bored to Death) and Rob Lowe (who might have submitted himself in the wrong category for his work on Parks and Recreation).

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Julie Bowen, Modern Family; Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock; Jane Lynch, Glee; Sofia Vergara, Modern Family; Betty White, Hot In Cleveland; Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live

• Expected: All the nominees in this category are EXACTLY what was EXPECTED!  Last year's winner (and this year's hostess!) Jane Lynch of Glee was guaranteed a return to the list.  Modern Family's Julie Bowen and Sofia Vergara were also each assured a second nod.  Both Jane Krakowski and Kristen Wiig (each previous nominees) are beloved in this category.  And to talk about beloved, there's Betty White!
• Snubs: Previous nominees Holland Taylor (of Two and a Half Men, don't get me started!) and Jenna Fischer (of The Office) are left off the list.  Hot In Cleveland's other top contender Wendie Malick (who could have easily submitted in Lead) lost her spot to co-star Betty White.  Critical favorites like Jane Adams (of Hung) and Busy Phillips (of Cougar Town) are once again denied their chances.  Both Merritt Weaver (Nurse Jackie) and Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory) were also considered strong contenders, but alas its not to be.  And with Jane Lynch getting a nod, it was unlikely that either Heather Morris or Naya Rivera would enjoy a nomination for their work on FOX's musical hit.  And let's not forget the three hilarious ladies (Alison Brie, Gillian Jacobs and Yvette Nicole Brown) from NBC's Community.  Surely, one of them deserved a nomination!

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Ty Burrell, Modern Family; Chris Colfer, Glee; Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men; Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family; Ed O'Neill, Modern Family; Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

• Expected: Chris Colfer, whose work on Glee this year was considered by many fans to be Leading work, was assuredly going to enjoy his second Emmy nod (to go with his Golden Globe win!).  And it was a foregone conclusion that at least two of the worthy Modern Family actors (Ty Burrell, Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Ed O'Neill and last year's winner Eric Stonestreet) would get nominations.
• Surprises: Though he won in 2009, Jon Cryer's chances to get nominated again have been dwindling (and the publicity his former co-star garnered the show this year was not helping), yet here he is nominated again (Maybe the voters are feeling sorry for him!).  And, seriously, ALL the Modern Family actors.  I mean, I like them all for different reasons and any two of them would have been welcomed, but all four is just too much.  It squeezes out anyone else who was very deserving (see below!).
• Snubs: There are two big ones: How I Met Your Mother's Neil Patrick Harris (who had been nominated several times before!) and Parks and Recreation's Nick Offerman (who is absolutely beloved by the critics and fans...seriously, they are crying "FOUL!").  The Modern Family domination certainly has robbed these two comedic talents of gaining recognition in the category.  Also, Community's Danny Pudi is a fan favorite who would have been extremely welcomed by many (myself included!).  With Chris Colfer's nod, Mike O'Malley (who does awesome work as his father) was aced out.  Garrett Dillahunt (of Raising Hope) and Oliver Platt (of The Big C) are both very respected by their fellow actors, but apparently not enough.  And both The Office and 30 Rock each had at least two possible contenders that were edged out by Modern Family (Rainn Wilson and Ed Helms of The Office and Jack McBrayer and Tracy Morgan of 30 Rock).

What does this all mean?

Well, to put it bluntly, Awards are completely subjective.  Half the time, the voters are very predictable (Mad Men!).  And the other half, they throw the pundits a most surprising curve ball (ALL the Modern Family men, really?!?).  And when you have to whittle down a large list of acclaimed contenders for each category down to just six spots, you are bound to make some enemies (fans of Nick Offerman, for sure!).  In a few weeks (as we get closer to ceremony time!), I will give you my predictions as to who will win come September 18.  And who knows?  I may be right OR I may get it ALL wrong.  But either way, I'm gonna enjoy doing it because, let's face it, it's the little things like this that keep our Culture spinning.  And I couldn't be happier!

The 2010 Emmy Awards: My Predictions - PART III

PART III The Series Awards

Best Drama Series

Breaking Bad, AMC

• FOR IT: According to most critics, this AMC drama about a high school teacher who makes and sells meth to make ends meet is one of the more deserving series in this category. Star Bryan Cranston has won the Best Actor award the past two years (and is poised to take it for a third time) and its supporting players (including Supporting Actor frontrunner Aaron Paul and acclaimed actress Anna Gunn) have received raves.
• AGAINST IT: Compared to its more promotable competition (like Mad Men and the final season of LOST), the show is not as noticeable. Its nomination (plus its two nominated actors winning in their categories) may just have to serve as the show's reward.

Dexter, Showtime

• FOR IT: The show about a forensic specialist who is also a serial killer (with a heart of gold!) has been nominated twice before and, to many, its fourth season was its best with the addition of John Lithgow (who won the Guest Actor in Drama Series Emmy) as a rival serial killer.
• AGAINST IT: Like most other cable shows, the series only has 12 episodes a season and the fourth season ended back in December 2009. Timing could work against this show that many people feel deserves recognition. Also, the show's graphic and bloody nature (it is referred to as one of the bloodiest shows on television) may be a turnoff to some of the more staid members of the voting Academy.

The Good Wife, CBS

• FOR IT: It is one the freshman shows of the season that was a hit both with critics and with the ratings. Led by the sheer force of the poignant performance by Julianna Margulies, who is a frontrunner to win the Best Actress in a Drama prize, the cast has been lauded left and right (with Supporting Actress nods for Christine Baranski and breakout player Archie Panjabi in the process).
• AGAINST IT: The nomination, while welcomed, was pretty much a surprise to most Hollywood insiders. It is primarily seen as a way of boosting Margulies' already strong chances in her category against tough competition from Damages' Glenn Close and Mad Men's January Jones.

LOST, ABC

• FOR IT: The show about survivors of a plane crash on a strange and mystical island has been a fan favorite throughout its six year run. Back in 2005, it won this award for its groundbreaking first season. Thanks to a chilling and controversial finale episode in May, ABC hopes to win that same award again this time around.
• AGAINST IT: It has not won since 2005 and has very tough competition from the cable shows it faces. Also, it has primarily been a fan favorite over its six years and while the finale episode was hailed, it was considered jarring and confusing to many. Voters may choose its competition in response to the fervor the final episode caused.

Mad Men, AMC

• FOR IT: The reigning champ in the category for the past two years had a stellar third season about the lives (and loves) of the workers at the Sterling Cooper Ad Agency in the early 1960's. Several of its ensemble cast members (including leads John Hamm and January Jones) each received nominations in their categories and its writing (by creator Matthew Weiner) is a frontrunner to win yet again. It is the Awards "Go-To" when it comes to the top prize.
• AGAINST IT: To avoid looking stale and stodgy (something the Academy has been accused of for years, especially last year), the voters may choose to go with a different winner this time no matter how deserving the third season was.

True Blood, HBO

• FOR IT: When it was not among the 8 nominees in this category last year, the multitudes of fans this dark drama series about vampires and other creatures in the Louisiana bayou cried "FOUL!" The show has amassed a huge following (like the Twilight series, just not as big).
• AGAINST IT: Much like LOST has been over the years (and Glee is in the Comedy category below), the love for this series has generally come from audiences and fans as opposed to within the Hollywood community itself. Also, like Dexter, the graphic and violent nature of the show (It IS called True Blood) might put off some of the older block of voters. The nomination could just be a way of making it up to audiences for not nominating it previously and nothing more.

PREDICTION

Mad Men is probably the most deserving and certainly could pull off a third win, but it is also just as likely that the votes will go to LOST's final season just out of pure respect for the mindfreak that J. J. Abrams and company put people through in May. I'm gonna give the edge to Mad Men (based purely on what the critics have said), but I do not count LOST out.

DARK HORSE

It is also quite possible that Mad Men will be watching its fellow network series Breaking Bad in the winners' circle come Sunday night. The show has gained great respect from many within the Hollywood community and they may want to give it more than just acting awards.

Best Comedy Series

Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO

• FOR IT: Larry David's completely ad-libbed sitcom has been enjoyed by critics since it debuted in 2000. This past year, the show pulled off television history by reuniting the cast of Seinfeld (Jerry Seinfeld, Jason Alexander, Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Michael Richards) on an episode.
• AGAINST IT: Seinfeld nostalgia aside, the series has been sporadically on HBO's schedule with its seventh season being in 2009 (when normally it would have been in 2007). The show often gets lost in the shuffle when it comes to awards like this. The nomination may just be enough.

Glee, FOX

• FOR IT: Ryan Murphy's series about a high school glee club was the phenomenal success of the season filled with songs and dances that melted audiences' hearts. Lead actors Matthew Morrison, Lea Michele and supporting players Chris Colfer and Jane Lynch (who is destined to win Supporting Actress in a Comedy for her role as the vicious cheerleading coach Sue Sylvester) all have scored praise and nominations much to the happiness of the fans (who have dubbed themselves Gleeks!). The musical-dramedy won the Golden Globe award this past year over sitcoms like The Office, 30 Rock and Modern Family.
• AGAINST IT: Two things really. Number 1 - The older block of voters have expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that a dramedy (although musical) is in the same category with sitcoms like The Office, 30 Rock and Modern Family. This is not a new issue, but it is beginning to rear its head and Glee may suffer for it. And Number 2 - The love it has received is mostly fanbased (most of which probably are not members of the voting Academy).

Modern Family, ABC

• FOR IT: The critics absolutely love this mockumentary-style sitcom about a family made up of three different households. Most of its acclaimed ensemble cast scored nominations in the Supporting categories (each cast member entered in supporting because of their ensemble status). It has also brought ABC back to the realm of beloved sitcoms (where until recently their Comedy gold relied on dramedies like Desperate Housewives and Ugly Betty).
• AGAINST IT: While it has a loyal audience and critics love it, it does not have the fanbase that FOX's Glee has. While some critics are members of the voting branch, they may not be enough to conquer those voters who might be voting for the FOX musical hit.

Nurse Jackie, Showtime

• FOR IT: One of the three new shows of the year recognized in this category, the critically-acclaimed quirky hospital dramedy was a surprise amongst the nominees (scoring a nod over more popular fare like NBC's Community or CBS' The Big Bang Theory).
• AGAINST IT: The show has mostly been noted for the stellar performance of its lead actress, Edie Falco. The nomination in this category might merely be a way to bolster Falco's standing in her category of Lead Actress in a Comedy where she faces tough competition from Glee star Lea Michele as well as previous winners Toni Collette and Tina Fey.

The Office, NBC

• FOR IT: Having won this award back in 2006, the American version of the Ricky Gervais Britcom has been a fan favorite (especially in syndication). This (along with its fellow NBC show 30 Rock) has become a staple at awards shows. Also, with Steve Carell's announcement that the upcoming season will be his last, voters may choose to remember this show's contribution.
• AGAINST IT: The comedy has had a lackluster season and critics have stated that since its uber-couple Jim and Pam (played by John Krasinski and Jenna Fischer, respectively) got married (and had a baby this year), the show has ultimately "jumped the shark." The last time it won in 2006, probably was the last time.

30 Rock, NBC

• FOR IT: Tina Fey's quirky backstage TV comedy has won this award for the past 3 years. It was almost natural that it would be nominated for its fourth season which has already won Alec Baldwin a Golden Globe (and both Baldwin and Fey Screen Actors' Guild Awards) this year.
• AGAINST IT: Like its network compatriot The Office, the show has been accused by critics of growing stale and has dwindled in ratings (which it didn't have that much of to begin with). Voters may choose to give newer shows a chance at this prestigious award.

PREDICTION

It will be the Critics vs. the Fans as the freshman shows Modern Family and Glee have an Emmy stand-off. It is not clear how deep the fanbase of FOX's musical series runs in the Hollywood community, so I wouldn't count it out (cause you never know if there are some secret Gleeks out there!); but I still give the edge to Modern Family based on critical praise (as well as a growing audience). Either one winning would be okay with me, but if you belong to either camp - be prepared for possible disappointment when the other side wins.