IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2011 Emmy Award Predictions - Part III: Miniseries & Variety

Once again, it is time for some more 2011 Emmy Predictions.  Today, we have six categories left: 5 in the combined Miniseries/TV Movie categories and the one Variety Series category (I'm not going to cover Variety Special because The Kennedy Center Honors has dominated the category in recent years and there's nothing saying it won't take it this year.  Sorry, Lady Gaga!).  So, on with the predicting!

BEST MINISERIES OR MADE FOR TV MOVIE

Cinema Verite (HBO), Downton Abbey (PBS), The Kennedys (Reelz Channel), Mildred Pierce (HBO), The Pillars of the Earth (Starz), Too Big To Fail (HBO)
Quick Overview: With 21 Emmy nominations, HBO's 5-part remake of Mildred Pierce has more nods than ANY other program (Mad Men only got 19!); Downton Abbey was one of the most watched programs on PBS' long-running Masterpiece series; The Kennedys had enough controversy behind it to get it noticed; Starz has been trying to get into the Emmy game with more original shows and a miniseries like Ken Follett's The Pillars of the Earth; And HBO's two original movies Cinema Verite and Too Big To Fail each got enough critical acclaim (and star power!) to share the spotlight with Mildred Pierce.
Will Win: 21 nominations + Oscar-winning star + HBO = Emmy win for Mildred Pierce.
Dark Horse: PBS' Downton Abbey is not to be outdone with a stellar British cast and an Oscar-winning writer (Julian Fellowes) in its corner.
No Real Should Win: Either one (Mildred Pierce or Downton Abbey) are worthy of the prize.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Taraji P. Henson, Taken From Me: The Tiffamy Rubin Story (Lifetime); Diane Lane, Cinema Verite (HBO); Jean Marsh, Upstairs, Downstairs (PBS); Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey (PBS); Kate Winslet, Mildred Pierce (HBO)
Quick Overview: The women in this category took on roles that typically garner awards love: Mildred Pierce won Joan Crawford an Oscar back in 1946, so it takes an Oscar-winner like Kate Winslet to play a woman like the title character; Diane Lane took on the role of Pat Loud, the woman whose life was displayed before us on the legendary documentary An American Family; Taraji P. Henson played a mother searching frantically for her son in a typical Lifetime movie; Elizabeth McGovern was the lone American in the British setting of Downton Abbey; And nostalgia plays a factor for Jean Marsh, who returns to the role that made her famous: stern housemaid Rose Buck on Upstairs, Downstairs.
Will AND Should Win: Do I really need to discuss this? Kate Winslet will add an Emmy to her Oscar.
Dark Horse: There is the extremely small likelihood that Emmy voters will not mark Winslet's name on their ballots (thinking she will get enough votes from other voters!) and the most likely beneficiary would be Diane Lane, who in any other year might have had a stronger chance.

BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Idris Elba, Luther (BBC America); Laurence Fishburne, Thurgood (HBO); William Hurt, Too Big To Fail (HBO); Greg Kinnear, The Kennedys (Reelz Channel); Barry Pepper, The Kennedys (Reelz Channel); Edgar Ramirez, Carlos (Sundance Channel)

Quick Overview: 5 of the men in this category took on real-life roles and the sixth won many fans as a determined detective: Oscar-winner William Hurt shined for many critics as former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in HBO's Too Big To Fail; Laurence Fishburne had his Tony-nominated performance as Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall filmed for HBO; Greg Kinnear and Barry Pepper took on the roles of John F. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy, respectively; Virtual unknown Edgar Ramirez wowed critics with his multi-language and multi-layered performance as the notorious Venezuelan terrorist Carlos the Jackal; And Idris Elba (who also scored a nomination for his work on The Big C) was key to the BBC drama about a detective willing to push the limits.

Will Win: Edgar Ramirez has enough industry support behind him that his win would pretty much be a kind of "Cinderella Story."

Should Win: Though it's been renewed for a second season, Idris Elba gave a dynamic (and extremely favored) performance in the BBC drama Luther (just the type of performance that usually gets Emmy's attention!).

Dark Horse: Playing the former Treasury Secretary, William Hurt was at the center of a movie that was ripe for our time of economic uncertainty.  And we know that Hollywood loves to make a statement about changing times.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Dame Eileen Atkins, Upstairs, Downstairs (PBS); Melissa Leo, Mildred Pierce (HBO); Dame Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PBS); Mare Winningham, Mildred Pierce (HBO); Evan Rachel Wood, Mildred Pierce (HBO)

Quick Overview: Let's just face it! This category consists of two Dames and the ladies behind Mildred Pierce! Melissa Leo, who had a small role in the HBO miniseries, is enjoying the success a recent Oscar win brings an actress; Evan Rachel Wood locked horns with Kate Winslet and held her own; Mare Winningham, who also enjoyed a small role, has become the go-to character actress for many Made For TV Movies/Miniseries; Dame Eileen Atkins, who co-created the British drama with Jean Marsh, played her eccentric wealthy woman with her usual aplomb; And Dame Maggie Smith lent Julian Fellowes' Miniseries that same kind of dignity she puts in every movie she's been in from The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie (her Oscar-winning role!) to the Harry Potter series.

Will Win: Maggie Smith is always an awards favorite (though she rarely shows up to accept!) and her role on Downton Abbey is exactly the type to win her yet another statue.

Should Win: Eileen Atkins gave the finest performance in the somewhat slow-moving Upstairs, Downstairs, but her recent win for the PBS Miniseries Cranford (back in 2008) puts her at the bottom of most voters' list.

Dark Horse: Evan Rachel Wood had the most prominent supporting female role in Mildred Pierce and if you can hold your own opposite the likes of Kate Winslet, awards voters tend to take notice.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Paul Giamatti, Too Big To Fail (HBO); Brian F. O'Byrne, Mildred Pierce (HBO); Guy Pearce, Mildred Pierce (HBO); Tom Wilkinson, The Kennedys (Reelz Channel); James Woods, Too Big To Fail (HBO)

Quick Overview: 3 previous Emmy-winners, A Tony-winner and well-respected Australian actor make this category very intriguing: Guy Pearce played the dastardly man who seduces and abuses Kate Winslet; Tom Wilkinson took on the task of playing the Kennedys staunch patriarch; James Woods flamboyantly played the part of Lehman Brothers drowning CEO; Paul Giamatti added his awards pedigree to the role of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke; And Tony-winner Brian F. O'Byrne garnered much sympathy as Kate Winslet's philandering and unemployed husband.

Will Win: Guy Pearce has had roles in several notable movies (L.A. Confidential, The Hurt Locker, The King's Speech) and his highlighted role in the HBO Miniseries gave conniving playboy a new meaning.

Should Win: James Woods gave his usual over-the-top style to the powerful HBO Movie and was certainly the film's highlight.

Dark Horse: As it sometimes happens when two actors from the same movie are nominated, they tend to cancel each other out. Therefore, Tom Wilkinson could benefit from the fact he is the sole nominee from his Miniseries in the category.

BEST VARIETY SERIES

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central); Conan (TBS); The Daily Show With Jon Stewart (Comedy Central); Late Night With Jimmy Fallon (NBC); Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO); Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Quick Overview: Saturday Night Live enjoyed its 36th season and it also was one of its most-watched in recent years; Jimmy Fallon hosted last year's Emmy ceremony to much acclaim and his show has grown in its industry support; When it comes to industry support, former Late Night host Conan O'Brien's move to TBS was very publicized and very well-received; And the last three shows (The Daily Show, Real Time and The Colbert Report) take on the current news and discuss it to hilarious effect.

Will AND Should Win: The Daily Show has won this award for the past nine years and most pundits agree that the streak isn't likely to stop anytime soon.

Dark Horse: The Colbert Report has gained as many (if not more!) fans as The Daily Show, so Colbert is the most likely candidate to dethrone Jon Stewart's reign. Though there is something to be said for the recent surge in the number of Emmy nominations Saturday Night Live has been receiving!

There you have it: My predictions for 20 categories of the 2011 Primetime Emmy Awards! Thanks for taking the time to read and enjoy the Emmy Awards on Sunday, September 18 on FOX (hosted by Glee's Emmy-winner Jane Lynch).

I dedicate these posts to the victims of 9/11 and their families.

Just know that you are always in our thoughts and prayers.

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2011 Emmy Award Predictions - Part II: Drama

And now, it is time for more 2011 Emmy Predictions.  Today, let's comb through the Drama categories!

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Boardwalk Empire (HBO), Dexter (Showtime), Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV), Game of Thrones (HBO), The Good Wife (CBS), Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Three-time winner Mad Men is trying for a fourth consecutive win (only Hill Street Blues and The West Wing have had four consecutive* Best Drama Series wins!); Showtime's Dexter had a less-than-stellar fourth season, but is still loved by audiences; Critical favorite Friday Night Lights ended it's rocky five-year run (on cable's DirecTV before being rerun on NBC!) and finally garnered one of the top nods; HBO's newcomers Boardwalk Empire and Game of Thrones hit it off with both critics and fans, so Emmy voters took notice; And CBS' legal drama The Good Wife wowed people with an emotionally charged second season and represents the broadcast networks among the wealth of cable favorites.
Will Win: Mad Men had a very well-received fourth season (and is pulling out all the stops in its ad campaigns!), so it is very likely to join Hill Street Blues, The West Wing and L.A. Law in the pantheon of Emmy's Best Dramas.
Should Win: I have said this before I believe, so I'll say it again: The Good Wife is the best show on Television currently and deserves every award in can receive.
Dark Horse: HBO wooed Martin Scorsese into directing (and producing!) the buzzworthy pilot of Boardwalk Empire, so they will do all they can to stop Mad Men's winning streak. They already won the Golden Globe earlier this year!
*=L.A. Law also had four Best Drama Series wins, but not consecutively.  Interestingly enough, all three shows (Hill Street Blues, L.A. Law and The West Wing) were broadcast on NBC!

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Kathy Bates, Harry's Law (NBC); Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV); Mireille Enos, The Killing (AMC); Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (NBC); Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife (CBS); Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Last year's winner Kyra Sedgwick beat out presumed front-runner Julianna Margulies, and Margulies again is near the top of every pundits' list to take the award this year; Elisabeth Moss was bumped up to Lead Actress from last year with stirring episodes and storylines; Connie Britton enjoyed her first nod last year and the critics would love to see her rewarded for the show's emotional last season; Oscar-winner Kathy Bates was a shoo-in to get nominated, despite her show garnering mixed reviews from critics and audiences; Character actress Mireille Enos gives a quiet yet resonant performance as a detective investigating a murder on AMC's The Killing; And Mariska Hargitay (who won this award back in 2006!) has become the category's perennial nominee (quite possibly over more deserving candidates, but I digress!).
Will AND Should Win: I've already stated my love for The Good Wife and Julianna Margulies has picked an emotionally packed episode to submit to Emmy voters. Victory shall be hers!
Dark Horse: Elisabeth Moss also is submitting a critically acclaimed (and emotionally powerful!) episode of Mad Men, and she could very well keep Margulies from the winner's podium (just like Kyra Sedgwick did last year!).

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire (HBO); Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights (NBC/DirecTV); Michael C. Hall, Dexter (Showtime); John Hamm, Mad Men (AMC); Hugh Laurie, House M.D. (FOX); Timothy Olyphant, Justified (F/X)

Quick Overview: With three-time previous winner Bryan Cranston ineligible this year, four of last years nominees are vying for this prize along with two category newcomers: John Hamm has picked a stellar episode (the same episode Elisabeth Moss picked!) to submit to Emmy voters; Kyle Chandler is banking on his show's emotional series finale to win it for him; Both Hugh Laurie and Michael C. Hall may play unlikable or morally polarizing characters, but they picked jaw-dropping episodes that could gain (or lose!) them support; Timothy Olyphant picked his show's second season finale on his first nomination for his complex role of a Southern lawman; And Golden Globe winner Steve Buscemi has name recognition and the full support of HBO behind him for this extremely tough category.
Will AND Should Win: It is said John Hamm has waited three long years to be rewarded for playing the snake-like ad man Don Draper and with Cranston ineligible, this may be Hamm's time to finally reap some praise.
Dark Horse: Steve Buscemi won both the Golden Globe and the SAG Award for his work as tough gangster Nucky Johnston, and Emmy voters may use those award precursors as signs from above.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (CBS); Michelle Forbes, The Killing (AMC); Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (AMC); Kelly MacDonald, Boardwalk Empire (HBO); Margo Martindale, Justified (F/X); Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife (CBS)
Quick Overview: Pundits have stated that this is the category that stumps them every year! Last year's winner Archie Panjabi was a pleasant surprise and The Good Wife's writers stepped up her game for the show's second season; Her co-star Christine Baranski is always an Emmy favorite no matter what she does; Christina Hendricks is still extremely well-liked among Mad Men's Sterling-Cooper Ad Agency; Character actress Margo Martindale played the villain perfectly on F/X's Justified; Longtime TV actress Michelle Forbes (Star Trek: The Next Generation, True Blood) has finally received an Emmy nod for her work as the murder victim's distraught mother on The Killing; And previous Emmy-winner Kelly MacDonald (for the TV Movie The Girl In the Cafe) is the best reviewed actor/actress on HBO's new hit.
Will Win: Emmys love to reward character actors in truly over-the-top performances (see Jane Lynch or Doris Roberts), so Margo Martindale may ride her character's villainy all the way to an Emmy win.
Should Win: Archie Panjabi may have surprised people last year with her win, but her emotionally understated performance as the law firm's in-house investigator went to new levels this year.
Dark Horse: If Mad Men is indeed going to take the top prize (and quite possibly, Best Actor!), Emmy voters may want to reward Boardwalk Empire with something (besides director!) and so Kelly MacDonald (who was also part of the last Harry Potter movie this summer!) may receive the show's consolation prize.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age (TNT); Josh Charles, The Good Wife (CBS); Alan Cumming, The Good Wife (CBS); Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (HBO); Walton Goggins, Justified (F/X); John Slattery, Mad Men (AMC)

Quick Overview: Two of the men from The Good Wife (Josh Charles and Alan Cumming) submitted great episodes and their characters are indeed central to the show's biggest storylines; John Slattery now has his fourth nomination and has picked an episode that could get him the elusive prize; Andre Braugher was, as far as the critics were concerned, the best part of TNT's now-defunct Men of a Certain Age; And category newcomers (and well-respected character actors!) Peter Dinklage and Walton Goggins are riding their respective shows' critical acclaim to possible Emmy glory.
Will Win: Like his co-star John Hamm, this may very well finally be John Slattery's chance to call himself an Emmy winner.
Should Win: Peter Dinklage gave one of the finest performances on HBO's fantasy hit and his particular episode features one of his most touching and stirring monologues.
Dark Horse: The love for F/X's Justified may just stretch beyond Margo Martindale and onto Walton Goggins' reserved and understated performance (the same style he used on another F/X Emmy favorite: The Shield).

BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Cara Buono, Mad Men (AMC); Joan Cusack, Shameless (Showtime); Loretta Devine, Grey's Anatomy (ABC); Randee Heller, Mad Men (AMC); Mary McDonnell, The Closer (TNT); Julia Stiles, Dexter (Showtime); Alfre Woodard, True Blood (HBO)
Quick Overview: Yes, there are 7 nominees in this category AND all 7 actresses not only guested on one episode of their respective Dramas, they were all recurring roles on each show! But because of Emmy rules, they each picked one episode that best shows their roles during the season: Julia Stiles had a much-hyped and critically dynamic role as serial killer Dexter's assistant (who also was a former victim of the killer he was facing!); Joan Cusack played the agoraphobic love interest to William H. Macy's drunken single father; Mad Men's Cara Buono and Randee Heller were two of the Sterling-Cooper many secretaries that kept the office running; Mary McDonnell played an Internal Affairs Captain investigating the possible misconduct of star Kyra Sedgwick's character; Loretta Devine returned to Seattle Grace as the wife of the Chief of Surgery, this time struggling with early-onset Alzheimer's Disease; And awards favorite Alfre Woodard played the mother of the gay-psychic cook on the fan favorite True Blood.
Will Win: Though this category has usually gone to older actresses in the past (Ann-Margaret, Leslie Caron and Ellen Burstyn are among the more recent winners!), Julia Stiles has the buzz surrounding her (and a Golden Globe nod!) that puts her in the front-runner position in this category.
Should Win: True Blood is a "true" fan favorite and has never received any kind of Emmy love (beyond technical awards!), so Alfre Woodard has the kind of Emmy cache that would give Emmy voters an excuse to give the vampire series a major Emmy.
Dark Horse: Joan Cusack is also an awards favorite (two Oscar nods under her belt!) and her submitted episode is very critically acclaimed, so she could be the name called at the Creative Arts Emmys on Saturday, September 10 (where the Guest Actor/Actress awards are given out!).

BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Beau Bridges, Brothers & Sisters (ABC); Jeremy Davies, Justified (F/X); Bruce Dern, Big Love (HBO); Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife (CBS); Paul McCrane, Harry's Law (NBC); Robert Morse, Mad Men (AMC)
Quick Overview: Four awards veterans face-off with two well-liked character actors in this interesting category: Michael J. Fox gave a dynamic performance in the recurring role of a lawyer who keeps Julianna Margulies' character guessing; Veteran actors Bruce Dern, Beau Bridges and Robert Morse each played small recurring roles on their respective shows well enough to put them in this Emmy race; Paul McCrane plays the recurring role of prosecutor to Kathy Bates' outspoken defense attorney; And Jeremy Davies played the unlikable criminal lawman Timothy Olyphant dragged out into the woods in the F/X show's second season finale.
Will AND Should Win: Though I liked him better on the first episode he was on, Michael J. Fox chose the second episode on which he appeared and we found out more about his character's backstory and home life. Emmy voters may very well pick him because Michael J. Fox has proven he can play vulnerable extremely well (just watch an episode of Family Ties!).
Dark Horse: There are actually two potential spoilers! Paul McCrane chose an episode in which his character had a virtual meltdown in court followed by an emotional scene he shared with Oscar-winner Kathy Bates. Sometimes proximity to an awards pro rubs off (that, and the show was created by David E. Kelley who as written more Emmy-winning characters than any other writer!). Also, Jeremy Davies had an staggeringly powerful scene in which his slightly villainous character is getting tortured by star Timothy Olyphant. Emmy voters may want to reward an unlikable character who shows his terrified vulnerability.

TOMORROW!

Part III: The Miniseries & Variety Categories!

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: 2011 Emmy Award Predictions - Part I: Comedy

The 2011 Primetime Emmy Awards are right around the corner (Sunday, September 18 on FOX).  So with the upcoming Awards, it is time that I give you my Emmy predictions.  I will be doing this over the next three days in three parts.  Why three parts?  Because I am covering 20 Primetime categories and I didn't want people's eyes to get tired in one day (unless you choose to wait until Saturday to read them and, if so, that's your problem!).  I have split the predictions into Comedy categories, Drama categories and Miniseries/Variety categories (I have stated before that I don't do Reality categories!).  Up first, are the hilarious, irreverent and (in recent years) emotionally touching Comedy categories.  One more thing: I've already gone over which actors and actresses got snubbed so these posts are not the place to lament that!  The Nominees are what they are!  Now, onto the predicting!

BEST COMEDY SERIES

The Big Bang Theory (CBS), Glee (FOX), Modern Family (ABC), The Office (NBC), Parks and Recreation (NBC), 30 Rock (NBC)
Quick Overview: Last year's winner Modern Family had a strong enough second season to garner praise all-around from the same critics from before; Audience darling Glee suffered a slumpy sophomore season (and a summer filled with backstage drama unfolding in the media!); Previous winners 30 Rock and The Office are the categories "Old Hands" and may be passed their prime despite creatively improved seasons; And both The Big Bang Theory and Parks and Recreation returned in their fourth and third season (respectively) to more acclaim and more fans than they had before.
Will Win: Modern Family most likely will pull off their second consecutive win.
Should Win: The Big Bang Theory proved in its fourth season it is the best sitcom on Television.
Dark Horse: Parks and Recreation's die-hard fanbase might just seep into the Academy enough to pull off a surprise victory.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie (Showtime); Tina Fey, 30 Rock (NBC); Laura Linney, The Big C (Showtime); Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly (CBS); Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope (FOX); Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (NBC)
Quick Overview: Golden Globe winner Laura Linney has never lost in any of her three previous Emmy races (in other categories, mind you!); Amy Poehler has submitted the hilarious "Flu Season" episode of her popular sitcom where critics compared her performance to the likes of Lucille Ball; Category newcomers Melissa McCarthy and Martha Plimpton have had well-respected careers (especially McCarthy with her breakout role in the summer film Bridesmaids); Previous winners Edie Falco and Tina Fey, while both extremely loved on their respective shows, were considerably not as strong this season as competitors Linney or Poehler.
Will Win: Laura Linney has the talented career that Emmy voters just love.
Should Win: My personal favorite in this category is the delightful work of Martha Plimpton, yet her show is not high enough on Emmy's radar.
Dark Horse: Amy Poehler may be considered the funniest woman in the category and since last year's winner Edie Falco pointed out her own lack of hilarity, Emmy voters may want to reward a true sitcom performer.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock (NBC); Steve Carell, The Office (NBC); Louis C. K., Louie (F/X); Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory (CBS); Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (Showtime); Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Quick Overview: With Steve Carell ending his 7-year run on The Office this year, it may be high time for Emmy voters to finally reward his emotional last episode; Last year's winner Jim Parsons might benefit from his character's strong showing on both his submitted episode and co-star (and fellow nominee) Johnny Galecki's episode, while Galecki primarily plays "Straight Man" to Parsons' eccentric Sheldon Cooper; Past winner (and constant SAG Award winner) Alec Baldwin may suffer from a poor episode submission as he chose 30 Rock's lackluster Season Finale over the well-received 100th Episode; And cable favorites Louis C.K. and Matt LeBlanc suffer from the dangerous "Larry David-syndrome" where they basically play versions of themselves on their respective shows (though Louis C.K.'s is more favored by the critics than Larry David ever was!).
Will Win: Steve Carell was everything he needed to be in his final episode and Emmys are suckers for that.
Should Win: Jim Parsons proved once again this year how good he is at being the irritating and anal Dr. Sheldon Cooper.
Dark Horse: Louis C.K. may be able to pull off what Ricky Gervais did a couple years ago (when Gervais won for HBO's Extras over Carell!) thanks to both fan and critical support.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Julie Bowen, Modern Family (ABC); Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock (NBC); Jane Lynch, Glee (FOX); Sofia Vergara, Modern Family (ABC); Betty White, Hot In Cleveland (TV Land); Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Quick Overview: Jane Lynch, this year's Emmy hostess, may benefit from showing versatility on both Glee and Saturday Night Live (the SNL episode she hosted and featured in is being submitted by fellow nominee Kristen Wiig); Wiig herself is outshone by Lynch on the previously mentioned SNL episode; Both Julie Bowen and Sofia Vergara cancelled each other out last year and may do so again, though Bowen had a stronger showing in the show's second season; Jane Krakowski has generally become the category's also-ran despite her well-received work this past year; And then there is the juggernaut resurgence of the amazing Betty White!
Will Win: Jane Lynch will probably pull off another win (thanks to Ms. Wiig!).
Should Win: Sofia Vergara deserves recognition for her delightful role as Gloria but her episode submission choices don't always reflect that quite well.
Dark Horse: Julie Bowen may have edged out Vergara's hilarity this past seasons and both her own episode submission (as well as Vergara's!) display that.
The Betty White Factor: Betty White is just beloved, and Emmys love to reward the beloved.
* = Interesting SIDE NOTE: This is the one Emmy category where most pundits had predicted all 6 nominees from Day One! Yet, it is now one of the few Emmy categories that seems to be the most "Up In the Air" as far as the winning result goes! Just thought I'd mention that!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Ty Burell, Modern Family (ABC); Chris Colfer, Glee (FOX); Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men (CBS); Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family (ABC); Ed O'Neill, Modern Family (ABC); Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family (ABC)
Quick Overview: Golden Globe winner Chris Colfer had a strong storyline this past year on the FOX mega-hit; Previous winner Jon Cryer garnered the sympathy vote thanks to the bad press his show received this year (because of it's "Winning!" former star!); Yet, there is no denying the strength of Modern Family in this category with ALL FOUR of its male adult leads garnering nominations: Ty Burrell and Eric Stonestreet are usually the critical (and fan) favorites, thanks very much to their over-the-top characters; Jesse Tyler Ferguson gets rare moments to shine (like the show's "Halloween" episode, which he cleverly submitted!); and veteran Ed O'Neill has now garnered his FIRST Emmy nomination for his strong and funny (yet, at times, touching) role of the family's patriarch.
Will Win: Ty Burrell has the best episode submission (plus a strong showing in his co-stars' episodes!), so therefore will most likely win.
Should Win: Ed O'Neill is the character actor who never got recognized for previous work (in particularly Married...With Children) and Emmy voters should take the time to reward that.
Dark Horse: Chris Colfer is on one of the most popular shows and is the most popular performer/character on that show, as his Golden Globe win this year fully reflects.

BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Elizabeth Banks, 30 Rock (NBC); Kristin Chenoweth, Glee (FOX); Tina Fey, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Dot Marie Jones, Glee (FOX); Cloris Leachman, Raising Hope (FOX); Gwyneth Paltrow, Glee (FOX)

Quick Overview: Cloris Leachman has won more Emmys (in multiple categories) than any other female performer (I believe her grand total is 9 or 10!) and her recurring role as Maw-Maw on new hit Raising Hope most predictably garnered her yet another nod; Tina Fey pulled out her famed Sarah Palin impersonation and received her third nod in this category; Elizabeth Banks' recurring role on 30 Rock was good enough to nominate her over the show's more illustrious female guests (like Elaine Stritch, Queen Latifah and Sherri Shepard); And then there is Glee: Tony-winner Kristin Chenoweth (and Emmy-winner for the long-gone Pushing Daisies!) has her second nod in this category for her eccentric recurring role of April Rhodes; Dot Jones' tough yet emotional role of football coach Shannon Beiste pushed her into the category spotlight (over usual Emmy favorite Carol Burnett!); And Oscar-winner Gwyneth Paltrow began a three-episode stint on the FOX hit with one of the few critically acclaimed episodes of the show's second season.
Will AND Should Win: Last November, when I saw the Glee episode titled "The Substitute," I turned to my father and said: "We just saw next year's Emmy winner for Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series." He pretty much agreed with me that Gwyneth Paltrow is the clear winner in this category.
Dark Horse: With so many previous Emmy wins, Cloris Leachman could pull off an upset if indeed Emmy voters are bored with Glee's inconsistent storylines and backstage behavior.

BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Will Arnett, 30 Rock (NBC); Matt Damon, 30 Rock (NBC); Idris Elba, The Big C (Showtime); Zach Galifianakis, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Nathan Lane, Modern Family (ABC); Justin Timberlake, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Quick Overview: Idris Elba's recurring role on the Showtime dramedy was very well-received, but his surprise nomination in this category is more thanks to his work on BBC America's Luther (more on that in the Miniseries categories!); Nathan Lane is very well-respected by the showbiz community and Modern Family is obviously beloved by Emmy voters; Both Will Arnett and Matt Damon gave well-received performances on their respective episodes of 30 Rock; And, in recent years, Saturday Night Live has surprised many by taking the Guest Actor/Actress categories which is good news for both Justin Timberlake and Zach Galifianakis.
Will Win: Justin Timberlake won this category two years ago and his episode this year was SNL's most-watched of the season. Emmy voters like a little popularity.
Should Win: Nathan Lane gave a hilarious performance on the Modern Family episode "Boys' Night," and his long career (in TV, Film and Theatre!) have earned him the love of his fellow actors.
Dark Horse: Zach Galifianakis' SNL monologue was one of the funniest monologues of the season and Emmy voters could check their ballots based on those first 5-10 minutes.

TOMORROW!

Part II: The Drama Categories

GOLDEN PLACES: Shakespeare In the Park...In San Diego!

San Diego is the second largest city in California and it is one of Southern California's most influential.  It's proximity to the Mexican border and its diverse culture gives the city it's own personality that distinguishes it from the state's other major cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco or San Jose.  And while the city is as well known for it's many marinas and beaches as it is for being the first sight of Father Junipero Serra's California Missions (Mission San Diego de Alcala), there is one major area of the city that is not as often given the kind of attention say that the Mission or Sea World or the world famous Zoo (which happens to border the area of which I am speaking!).  I am speaking, of course, of San Diego's Balboa Park.

The Balboa Park section of San Diego is one of the most beautiful Parks in California.  Named for Spanish explorer Vasco Núñez de Balboa, the Park was the site of two very important Expositions: The 1915 Panama-California Exposition and the 1935 California Pacific International Exposition.  Each Expo had buildings created for them that have since become National Landmarks.  The architecture of these buildings is nothing short of breathtaking.  And within the Park are some of the most amazing Botanical Gardens, Museums and Tourist Attractions one could ever hope to enjoy.  Among the nine Museums to take in include the quite popular San Diego Natural History Museum (which featured a limited exhibition of the famed Dead Sea Scrolls when I visited!) and the San Diego Museum of Art (which highlights some of the world's greatest Spanish Art).  As I said before, adjacent to the park is the world famous San Diego Zoo, which doesn't need any explanation from me as to why it is so revered.

But the crown jewel of Balboa Park's many attractions (in my honest opinion), is the nationally renowned Old Globe Theatre.  The Theatre is a replica of William Shakespeare's famed Globe Theatre in London and was built in 1935 as part of the Exposition (where it featured several 50-minute versions of some of Shakespeare's most famous plays).  Almost 15 years later, the Globe launched its famous summer Shakespeare Festival, which still packs the house to this day.  An arson in 1978 practically destroyed the Theatre (necessitating an outdoor theatre to be built!) and in 1981, the Old Globe was rebuilt and has since become one of most prominent regional theatres in the country.  Some of the most influential plays and musicals got their start at the San Diego treasure (including Neil Simon's Rumors, Stephen Sondheim's Into the Woods and August Wilson's The Piano Lesson).  The Theatre is part of the Park's Old Globe complex which also features a smaller Theatre In the Round, an outdoor stage and the Starlight Bowl Amphitheatre.  Plus, in the nearby Casa de Prado, the San Diego Junior Theatre (the oldest children's theatre in the nation) puts on free entertainment shows during the large Tourist season.

With the Theatre complex and the many Museums, Balboa Park has come to be one of the most culturally significant centers in California.  It is a place I am proud exists within a very diverse city, which in turn is part of a very diverse state (which happens to be in the most diverse nation in the world!).  It is a must for anyone's San Diego "To Do" List.

IT'S THE LITTLE THINGS: How Long Is Too Long On Broadway?

As the East Coast is still recovering from the damage that was caused by last weekend's Hurricane Irene, Broadway went back into business this week with a full blast.  The revival of Chicago, which has been a solid hit since its opening back in 1996, danced its way passed A Chorus Line to become the 4th Longest Running Broadway Musical AND the Longest Running American Broadway Musical.  That latter title is the one to note here.  You see, the three musicals that are ahead of the Bob Fosse-style "Razzle Dazzler" are shows that were birthed across the Atlantic Ocean in London: Cats, Les Miserables (both of which are now closed) and The Phantom of the Opera (which is STILL running - since 1988 - with a count of 9,016 performances as of September 4, 2011).  Cats and Phantom are two of the biggest hits in composer Andrew Lloyd Webber's career and Les Miserables is one of producer Cameron Mackintosh's worldwide hits (interestingly enough, Mackintosh also co-produced Cats and Phantom, meaning he has a stake in the top 3 Longest Running Broadway shows!).  But how long is too long?

I remember when I was a kid and A Chorus Line's 6,137 performances seemed like an aberration, something unattainable that NO other show could EVER surpass.  Then, when I was in High School, Andrew Lloyd Webber's bizarrely fascinating musical about felines did the seemingly impossible.  In June of 1997, Cats famously passed A Chorus Line's record and remained on Broadway for another 4 years.  A year after Cats closed, Les Miserables passed A Chorus Line (and promptly closed a year later!).  And in the last 8 years, The Phantom of the Opera dropped the massive chandelier every night and in the process passed all three to become the Longest Running Broadway Musical.  Now with over 9,000 performances, Phantom has become the unattainable.  Even the show's legendary director, Harold Prince, is often surprised by the massive success that the show has enjoyed.

When Prince began as a producer (of The Pajama Game back in 1954), the Longest Running Broadway show was Oklahoma!, which had a total run of just over 2,000 performances.  Since then, seven other landmark Broadway musicals have enjoyed the title of Longest Running show in history: My Fair Lady, Hello, Dolly!, Fiddler On the Roof, Grease, A Chorus Line, Cats and, now, Phantom.  But Phantom's run pretty much equals the combined totals of Oklahoma!, My Fair Lady, Dolly! and Fiddler together!  So I ask again, how long is too long?

At this time, Phantom and Chicago are not the only current Broadway shows that have run for over a decade.  Disney's Tony-winning hit The Lion King and the massive ABBA musical Mamma Mia! both have at least a decade under their "belts" and the 2003 Oz-ian mega-hit Wicked is not too far behind.  This is an interesting question because with the economy the way it currently is and those economic realities having an affect on the state of several Broadway shows, it's refreshing to see shows that were once the hottest tickets in town remain open and still perform at 80-90% capacity!  But do these respective shows' successes encourage what several notable Broadway-philes have called: A Creative Vacuum?  More producers (meaning investors who want to be called producers!) are trying to grasp at the unattainable because with so many shows running so long, they believe the impossible is actually quite possible.  That's why we are seeing an enormous amount of musicals based on recognizable titles (i.e. films, books or even comic books!).  So I ask you readers, have these shows run too long?  Are they making it harder for the future generation of playwrights or composers who are having trouble getting the proper funding from these pretentious investors?  Or is commercial theatre (re: Broadway) in major trouble thanks to the constantly troubling economy?  It seems to always come down to money no matter what you do!  Below, are the posters of the 8 shows currently running on Broadway that have surpassed 1,000 performances (which means they have run at least 2 and a half years!).  Are these 8 shows representative of what Broadway is all about today?  And, if so, is that a good thing or a bad thing or just the way it is?